Reserve Bank says rates could fall further even as regulator warns of housing bubble
The World Today By AM business editor Peter Ryan and business reporter Simon Frazer
Posted 18/05/2015 at 2:24pm
The Reserve Bank says it still has scope to cut interest rates further, despite the corporate regulator warning there are signs of a dangerous property bubble in Sydney and Melbourne.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission's (ASIC) chairman Greg Medcraft has become the first regulator to publicly use the term "bubble" in warning that borrowers could be burned when interest rates eventually rise or unemployment spikes.
"I think that the Sydney and the Melbourne markets are very hot. If you look at the average price to income ratio, it is very high," Mr Medcraft told The World Today.
"History has shown that often you don't know you're in a bubble until it's over, but you can look at history and look at historical averages and one can draw their own conclusions."
Mr Medcraft has compared a potential Sydney and Melbourne bubble to the lead-up to the housing slump in the United States, which played a key role in sparking the global financial crisis of 2008.
He observed that crisis first-hand as then chairman of the American Securitsation Forum.
Mr Medcraft said that US property investor expectations of constantly rising prices were burned when interest rates ultimately moved higher, especially borrowers on low "honeymoon" rates.
Mr Medcraft also warned of the potential for rising unemployment, after last week's federal budget forecast a peak of 6.5 per cent.
"That is the major driver of mortgage defaults," Mr Medcraft said.
RBA walks 'fine line' with rates strategy
The Reserve Bank's deputy governor Philip Lowe was also out this morning, in the first speech by a senior RBA official since the bank cut interest rates to a historic low of 2 per cent nearly a fortnight ago.
Analysts were critical at the time of the central bank's lack of guidance on what its next move may be.
We still have scope to lower interest rates if we need to.
RBA deputy governor Philip Lowe
Speaking at a Corporate Finance Forum event in Sydney this morning, Dr Lowe said that does not mean the RBA's easing bias - meaning that any move in rates is very likely to be down - has been abandoned.
"We still have scope to lower interest rates if we need to. That doesn't mean we're going to, but we have scope to do that. Nothing has changed in that dimension," he clarified.
"But the idea, when we announce a reduction in interest rates, that we continue to provide guidance, we haven't done that in the past."
Earlier in his speech, Dr Lowe acknowledged the risks posed by property prices while outlining reasons for this month's rate cut.
"It is unlikely to be in Australia's long-term interest to engineer a consumption boom by simply encouraging people to borrow large amounts against their future income," he said.
"It is especially so when debt levels are already high and prospects for future income growth are not as positive as they once were.
"So there is fairly fine line to tread here. The RBA's recent decisions have sought to strike a prudent balance, to help encourage consumption growth and thus ultimately business investment, but avoid the type of imbalances that could cause us serious problems later on."
评论
房价还要涨。
评论
Up
评论
起码明年, 是大选年, 房价不可能跌的, 政府要的是稳定, 繁荣, 慢牛
评论
一句话：耗子还的涨
评论
But the bank refuses to pass on the cut
评论
适当降温无论对有房的还是没房的都是正面影响，不是不长，是缓长控制。
评论
所以给了央行更大降息空间。也给了小银行生存空间。新预算扶植小企业嘛。
评论
which bank?
评论
2%是一个关键点, 如果再降的话, 就没人存钱了, 也没有海外热钱进入, 银行的funding cost反而变高了, 小银行更难生存,
评论
会pass rate cut, 但可能不是全部， 降个0。20 左右
评论
2%关键点是谁说的...为啥不是3%？
评论
昨天24news 罕见的放housing bubble 。 然后还请专家来解读。 然后和2008 GFC 来比较。
我不知道即便是利息降。 其实也没什么好值得高兴的。
评论
再降估计没有一个银行会pass on
评论
不Pass on的话等于没降息，那下个月RBA还要降啊...
评论
现在的投资房折扣利率收紧 等于就是政府要求银行不去pass cut for investment property, 但是要求Business loan pass full cut
评论
不可能，起码pass 5分之4
评论
小银行和小企业是两回事吧，银行再小也算不了小企业吧～
评论
这个很有道理，当初就是中国刚入手大量两房，就被斩了。现在是中国资金大量入市，占市场比例已经达到两房购买比例的1/50.
评论
刚才有网友还说银行都不看RBA，就是不Pass on呢。
评论
是吧...谢谢指出：）
评论
RBA怎么说无所谓，银行自己调到18%就可以了。
评论
你白天多想想，然后晚上做梦的时候就能实现了
评论
睡觉的时候吓醒了，由于利率过高，澳洲股票价格缩水80%。后来查了一下账户，没有股票，这下放心了。
澳洲中文论坛热点
- 悉尼部份城铁将封闭一年，华人区受影响！只能乘巴士（组图）
- 据《逐日电讯报》报导，从明年年中开始，因为从Bankstown和Sydenham的城铁将因Metro South West革新名目而
- 联邦政客们具有多少房产？
- 据本月早些时分报导，绿党副首领、参议员Mehreen Faruqi已获准在Port Macquarie联系其房产并建造三栋投资联