Forex - Aussie falls as RBA eases inflation views in policy statement
nvesting.com - The Aussie fell in Asia Friday after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its inflation views in its Statement of Monetary Policy.
AUD/USD traded at 0.7403, down 0.84%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 107.08, down 0.17%.
"The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new forecast that underlying inflation will remain below the 2-3% target range until the middle of 2018 supports our long-held view that interest rates will be cut again to 1.5% before long," Capital Economics said in a note to clients.
"After previously forecasting that underlying inflation would be 2.0% this year and around 2.5% next year, the RBA has concluded that it will stay at 1.5% in the second quarter and will stay below 2% all of next year. Part of the downward revision is due to the fact that underlying inflation fell much further than the RBA expected in the first quarter. But the Bank has also concluded that wage growth will remain lower for longer. The clear implication is that monetary policy will need to do more to boost underlying inflation. Tuesday’s 0.25% rate cut to 1.75% will probably be followed by another cut in August."
The AIG construction index in Australia rose to 50.8, reaching expansion territory in April from a previous level of 45.2.
HIA economist Diwa Hopkins said the results show that activity in Australia's residential construction sector is easing from the record levels of 2015.
"The latest cut to the official cash rate - and critically, its pass-on by the major lenders - will support healthy levels of new home building over the near to medium term. Nevertheless, the level of building is still likely to be shy of what occurred in 2015."
Markets in Japan re-open Friday as the Golden Week holiday ends with the focus on whether Japan policy-makers will intervene to slow the yen's rise.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar's value versus six currencies, was up 0.01% to 93.74.
Overnight, the dollar rose against a basket of currencies for a third day on Thursday as traders closed out profitable bets against the greenback before Friday's U.S. payrolls report which may confirm the view the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates soon.
Economists polled by Reuters forecast U.S. employers likely added 202,000 workers in April following a 215,000 increase in March with the jobless rate holding at 5.0 percent.
Steady monthly job gains have yet to prompt a pickup in wage growth, which remains a worry for the Federal Reserve.
In the absence of higher wage growth, together with sluggish global demand, Fed policy-makers will likely refrain from raising policy rates at its June 14-15 policy meeting, which would renew bets the dollar would fall, analysts said.
The futures market implied traders see a 14% chance the Fed will hike rates in June , little changed from Wednesday, Reuters data showed.
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星期五了
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请老刘来翻译下
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我对大涨抱有怀疑的态度。 降息无非是对房市带来2个好处： 一是借贷成本降低， 可是现在银行压的这么紧， 贷不到的还是贷不到， 不可能降个0.25而改变。 二是澳元贬值， 海外投资增加， 可FIRB现在查的这么严， 中国政府锁紧资金向海外转移的途径。 最大得利的是现在已经买房的人， 至少房市应该还是稳定的。
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我觉得刺激有限
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刺激有限，已买房的享受更低利息
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同意刺激有限，贷款不是问题，最多影响一小部分楼花，国内转钱出来更不是问题，多的是手段。
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at the moment the rate is at the historical lowest, and this rate cut is unique in a sense that it was done on the budget night, first time in history. hence people are speculating it is actually the stunt initiated by the liberal government to hook up more votes.
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不管怎样搞经济还是指不上工党，工党的治国手段就是简单粗暴鼠目寸光，我们这一代华人从来就没指望着靠国家养活，所以大锅饭式的社会其实是不适合的。
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大涨估计略悬
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两次降息还不涨到15%以上？
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大涨我不知道会不会，我只知道，我想买房子，贷款好严格
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没刘翻译我看不明白
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小涨好一点，最好小小涨
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最多是小涨而已。
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同意。这次市场预期已经透支了降息的效果，而且即使有下一次也是利空提前出尽。这是房地产过渡炒作新闻的结果。太急迫了，那么透明了，谁会现在进场呢，有什么情况不能再等等啊。那是什么样的刚需？
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降息为了什么
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该买房的都买的差不多了。 需求不那么强烈
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依稀的记得教科书上说，降息刺激投资与消费，促进工商业复苏和发展，提振就业和工资增长而达到繁荣经济
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大涨不符合本地人利益，加上各种海外贷款限制，预测稳涨 今年10%肯定有的
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降息是为了促进消费，资金流入房地产是必然的
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涨是必然的 就是幅度大小 政府也是小心翼翼的生怕太快
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ok, just wait and see
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温水煮青蛙，看这办吧
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降吧
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漲漲漲
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