The Daily Telegraph今天关于悉尼房地产的大幅报道 - 大家的房子（HOUSE）价格都会翻番。
报道说大概在10年内，悉尼有一半比例的房东（HOUSEOWNER）都会变成房产市场里的百万富翁，因为预测他们的HOUSE价格将会翻倍。
Australian Property Monitors （APM）预测悉尼中价位物业的价格将会在10年内飙升到一百二十万，平均每年上涨7.6%。
报道说这样的预测对于已经持有house的人来说是个好消息，但是经济学家们说悉尼人对于house的购买承受力正在处于危机的边缘，联邦政府和州政府对此毫无作为应受到指责。澳洲人买房的梦想正在破灭。
报道说，预测Kellyville, Campsie and Forestville中价位HOUSE的价格将达到一百万。
外西区（Outer-western Suburbs）例如Emerton和Blackett被认为是在10大最有潜力增长的地区之中，这两个区的房子在2020年之前将超过60万。
高端市场区里比如Watsons Bay和 Palm Beach，HOUSE的价格将会超过800万。
而Apartment的涨幅在大部分区都会有丰硕成果。
。。。
Your home set to double in price
By KATRINA CREER and SHARON LABI
From: The Sunday Telegraph
March 21, 2010 12:00AM
UP TO half of Sydney homeowners are set to become property millionaires, with house prices predicted to double in the next decade.
Figures prepared exclusively for The Sunday Telegraph by Australian Property Monitors (APM) show Sydney's median property price is on target to reach $1.2 million, averaging 7.6 per cent growth per annum.
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It's good news for those already in the market but economists say housing affordability is at a crisis, blaming both federal and state governments for failing to act. They warn the Australian dream of home ownership is ending.
Suburbs as diverse as Kellyville, Campsie and Forestville are all predicted to have a median above $1 million. Affordable outer-western suburbs such as Emerton and Blackett - both ranked in the top 10 for potential growth - could all be worth more than $600,000 by December, 2019.
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In high-end areas such as Watsons Bay and Palm Beach, homes are predicted to cost more than $8 million. Apartments will make solid gains across most suburbs.
Some inner-west areas, however, are among the lower performers. Coastal properties, hit hardest in the global financial crisis, could also make good returns over the next decade fuelled by baby boomers making sea changes.
John Symond from Aussie Home Loans said future generations would have little hope of getting into the market if such heights are attained.
"Young people should try to buy now while it's still reasonably affordable. They shouldn't over-commit themselves and will need to hold on to the property long term."
While Mr Symond said he doubted property would rise as much as predicted in the report, he said "if it gets to half of that it's still scary".
APM economist Matthew Bell said Sydney house prices have grown on average seven to eight per cent per annum over the past 20 years and this was set to continue.
"We are a relatively affluent country with very good long-term prospects in terms of resources boom and population growth - I just can't see us underperforming," Mr Bell said. "When I was young, a million dollars was a lot of money - now it's less money and that is just the power of inflation."
While Sydney prices are strong, it may not make the same gains as other cities with stronger projected population numbers.
Perth is expected to make strongest gains over the decade with the median house price tipped to jump 12.3 per cent, followed by Brisbane (11.6 per cent) and Melbourne (10 per cent).
"If I had to invest somewhere in Australia it would be Perth followed by Brisbane because you have strong incomes, a resources boom and strong population growth," Mr Bell said.
Wages in NSW are currently growing at 5.4 per cent per annum, according to APM, with experts warning this will not be enough to keep up with rising house prices.
"If all that income growth occurs, say in resource sector-related jobs, then large sections of the population will struggle to afford property in the future," Mr Bell said.
The APM data follows a housing affordability report that found if construction trends continue, Australia will face a housing shortfall of 466,000 homes by 2020. Sydney will need an extra 13,000 homes, the Housing Industry Association said.
HIA chief executive Graham Wolfe said the forecasts risk driving essential service workers out of the city. Governments needed to cut taxes and levies on land and new homes, more land needed to be released and existing properties should be rezoned.
"It's bad news for housing affordability and it's therefore correspondingly bad news for people looking to buy, and that's our sons and daughters," Mr Wolfe said. "What we don't want to do is chase our essential service workforce out of the city. With prices escalating at that rate, it will make it very difficult."
Mr Wolfe said too many established suburbs had large blocks of land with a single weatherboard house on site. And even if more property was released, governments and councils needed to cut taxes, levies and fees that can add up to $170,000 of the cost of a new house-and-land package.
CommSec chief economist Craig James said it was not all bad for aspiring homeowners. Disposable incomes have been rising by around 7.4 per cent a year in line with Sydney's forecast average property price growth of seven per cent a year to 2020.
Mr James said while the cost of utilities will rise, other services such as communication and household appliances are likely to fall.
"It's likely we'll see the cost of communication, household appliances, even travel become cheaper over time; that will free up extra dollars.
DEBBIE and Chris Comyns had to triple their mortgage when moving from Newcastle to Sydney last year.
But the gamble could pay off with the $700,000 home in Beaumont Hills predicted to be worth as much as $2 million by the end of the decade.
According to APM's prediction, the leafy north-west suburb could enjoy an average growth of 13 per cent per annum to the end of 2019.
This figure is based on historical price trends which give an indication of how prices could grow in the suburb.
However, even if this predicted price growth is less, the area and the surrounding suburbs such as Rouse Hill and Kellyville are all tipped to easily break the million dollar barrier.
"It's just amazing, I think we might have to stay in Sydney," Ms Comyns said. "It makes us feel a bit more comfortable about doing things to the house, knowing that we will get that money back,"
The couple and their two boys, Ethan and Jack, moved last September, after Mr Comyns was promoted to his company's Sydney office. They looked around and found little difference between paying rent and a mortgage.
Agent Stephen Giacomelli from Gilmour & Orley said it is possible that prices in Beaumont Hills could reach the double million mark.
[ 本帖最后由 patrickzhu 于 2010-3-21 16:36 编辑 ]
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新闻链接和照片
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au ... 00aev-1225843254040
Chris Comyns with wife Debbie and kids Jake (5 yrs) and Ethan (7yrs) at their Beaumont Hills home in North Western Sydney.
Picture: Sam Ruttyn Source: The Daily Telegraph
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叫我怎么想都想不明白！
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这些附件列明了2000-2009年悉尼各个区UNIT和HOUSE的价格变化和年增长率，同时也列出了3年/5年/10年后物业的价格，供大家YY
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第一个不对吧，从 2488 开始的。。。
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是The Daily Telegraph上的附件有问题
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最关键的看不到 。。。
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工资翻倍不？
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房价如果翻倍了，工资翻倍也没用，除非你的工资和房价一样高。
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工资翻倍,房价就肯定不止翻倍
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10年，太久了。到时候我儿子都会骗美美了。
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预测都是算命,看看就得了.真按预测投资,绝大部分是杯具.
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觉得报纸上的房价比实际的还低一些。不过数据貌似没有进行合理性的编辑，不是太有用阿
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如果你相信这个预测的话，最好是5年后才买房子。很多区5年后的房价只比现在高一点，有少数区，如kogarah, 5年后房价比现在还低。
按照这个预测，房价是在后5年猛涨
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嗯看出来了，也就是说预测在5年内房市会出现低迷，然后迅速拉升。
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专家们反应开始异常了
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以各位的意见就是没买房的，现在还应该再继续抢房呗。哈哈
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上帝与让人灭亡必先让人疯狂。。。。。
这些经济学家都是代表各自的利益集团的， 都在为各自的利益喊话呢？
这个估计是自由党的人出来喊话， 来打压labor， 为今年大选造势。
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这个是根据悉尼各个suburb 前一年、三年、五年、和十年的增长趋势，来预估将来1年、3年、5年、甚至10年的价格
有很大的不确定性，因为没有考虑到城市规划、人口集散、基建设施、环境保护、收入水平等一系列因素
今天布里斯班的报纸 Sunday Mail 也把各个suburb 逐个预测了一下，可供参照，但不必当真
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有的数据好像不对的嘛，MARSFIELD的房子怎么上面这么便宜，肯定是搞错了。。。
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过了2012年 再考虑买房吧
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到时候我儿子都会骗美美了--------有米的妹妹。
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持房观望
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持房持币观望．
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嗯，对的，我LG看了报纸后也这么说的。
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刘翻译呢
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