澳洲工党上台对房价的影响

在澳大利亚地产投资



有人说工党上台后,房价会跌,是不是这样得啊? 大家讨论下?
前天翻了各帖子也是说现在澳洲房价高都是现在党派得政策都是支持买房, 所以房地产时间一片繁荣
目前工党支持率还是很高得, 利息也涨了.好像对房价很不妙啊

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非常有道理。

《悉尼晨锋报》曾有一篇报道，其中就有这么一段：

Mr Robertson said the needs of first-home buyers were being ignored because most voters were home owners and therefore had an interest in higher, not lower, property prices.

"Neither the Coalition nor the Labor Party in Canberra show any sign of going out of their way to make any significant difference … [First-home buyers] are not a big enough priority for Canberra to do much beyond blaming the states for not releasing enough land," he said.

无论目前执政的自由党联盟，还是在野的工党，在这一点上都差不多。因为大多数的选民是屋主，房价上涨而不是下跌符合这些选民的利益。

而首次置业者都不在他们的优先考虑名单之列。


1


下面这两项政策都是工党大选前的承诺，如果11月24日工党上台，这两项政策得以实施，势必夯实房产市场的底部，房价想跌都难。。。



工党拟推出新的免税储蓄政策帮助年轻首置者购房


工党拟推激进的“产权分享”计划 提高澳人房产拥有率






[ 本帖最后由 villa 于 2007-11-7 23:38 编辑 ]

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对澳洲房产投资市场具有重大支撑作用的negative gearing（负扣税）政策，工党也不会动它。




Labor won't touch negative gearing




July 22, 2007 - 10:33AM


Labor would not use negative gearing as a way to make housing more affordable, opposition housing spokeswoman Tanya Plibersek says.

Labor is due to hold a national housing summit in Canberra this week, bringing together experts in the field to discuss housing affordability.

The opposition is looking at several strategies but, Ms Plibersek said, negative gearing would not be part of it.

"We're not touching negative gearing," she told the Ten Network today.

"We are interested in looking at ways of attracting investment into the lower end of the market and there might be things you can do with the tax system to improve that, including this proposal for a national affordable rental incentive scheme that we've talked about. But we're not touching negative gearing."

Negative gearing occurs when the cost of renting out an investment property exceed the rental income.

In these cases, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) allows investors to offset the loss against their income tax assessment.

Ms Plibersek said negative gearing was not the way to make housing more affordable. Instead, Labor would look at other solutions.

One scheme Labor is considering involves helping people pull together a deposit through automatic withdrawals.

"We're looking at something that would be a lot like superannuation ... where you contribute from your pre-tax income ... and it's taxed at a concessional rate on withdrawal," Ms Plibersek said.

People would have to commit to the fund for about five years, she said, and would only be able to withdraw the money to spend on a first home.

"We think that this is a good way of helping people with a deposit gap."

Ms Plibersek said Labor was not looking to make changes to the first home buyers scheme.

"We certainly wouldn't ditch the first home owners grant but we don't want to start handing out more lump sums because, in the past, that has had an inflationary effect and we don't want to make the patient worse with the medicine we give," she said.

AAP

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对于升息后在日益加重的还贷压力中苦苦挣扎的中低收入家庭，AUSSIE Home Loans创始人John Symond曾建议，让还贷的款项予以税务减免优惠，工党也明确拒绝。





ALP won't back tax mortgage payment plan



October 21, 2007 - 1:45PM


Labor has ruled out making mortgage repayments tax deductible.

Labor's treasury spokesman Wayne Swan was asked about the plan, and said he did not think it was a workable proposition.

"I think it would be very, very expensive," Mr Swan told the Nine Network.

"As Treasurer Peter Costello observed in the paper only a couple of weeks ago, it would have to be accompanied by capital gains tax on the family home.

"That's not something that Labor would ever, ever support."

But Mr Swan said housing affordability was a priority issue for Labor.

The opposition already had a number of policies including a supply-side plan to give investors in affordable rental housing a tax incentive, he said.


http://www.smh.com.au/news/Natio ... /1192301129181.html

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不会影响房市基本面.

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我觉得影响不会直接体现在严厉整顿房地产市场的政策上，而是会体现在鼓励资本撤离房市，投放到更有productivity（mental block...how to translate this word into Chinese?）的产业中去。大家都知道房地产是最没有productivity的行业，无非是大家把资金投进来变相赌博而已，弄到最后，地还是那么大，房子还是那一堆砖头，木头和水泥。labor如果能找到下一个经济发展的长期支柱，并吸引投资者投入的话，很多资金自然会撤离房市。

当然现在房价高企，主要还是供求关系决定的。但长期来看，澳洲768万平方公里的土地，两千一百万的人口，住房用地的短缺只能解释为人为的，是政府行为。如果这一点改善了，房价就真的下来了。

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也许，利率的持续上升才能有效遏止房价的飙涨，如果陆克文总理的工党最后搞得象九十年代初的Paul Keating时代的工党那样，利率飞涨到17％，或许房价才能降温，不过，如果不幸这段历史真的重演，澳洲经济也就距离崩溃不远了。。。。。。

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呵呵,感谢VILLA版主和布老虎得解答
真得是学到了不少得知识.利息涨到17%是肯定不可能得,就跟VILLA说得一样,澳洲经济都会崩溃. 毕竟澳洲经济很大一部分是靠其他国际经济支撑得,特别是发展中国家,象中国和印度. 利息太高做CARRY TRADE得人就多了, 汇率就不可想象了.

看过你说得那个工党实行得计划,好像已经实行了,在电视里看到过,就是政府占有一半得房产. 我也觉得这样会抬高房价. 就跟之前又各经济学家说,澳洲虽然很多人都还不起贷款, 不是利息过高, 反而是利息太低了,人们很容易贷款,这样就炒高了房价. 这么看来的话我很同意VILLA的观点.

让房价治本的方针就是政府多批地. 不知道这个版主有什么看法, 你觉得工党会做吗?比如说稍微提高土地的供应量.
还有一个问题就是,虽然现在澳洲是移民国家,但是移民政策已经明显抓紧了,相比以前,新移民会减少. 这样对房屋的需求关系会不会减弱. 我觉得澳洲的房价很大一部分也是因为新移民的需要,然后前急年汇率低, 所以需求量大. 在现在这个汇率高,移民政策紧, 利息高的情况下, 房子的价值会不会跌呢,或者增长没有以前快呢?

如果真的是那样,现在不是很多人屯房子了? 还是有风险的吧

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还有一点就是, 现在次级贷款风险好流行,CITIBANK因为这个损失不少
如果银行抓紧贷款额度, 那么也会对房价有抑制作用.  这方面的影响会大吗?

其实还是看政府怎么想.政府就是一盏灯,点哪里哪里亮.
这么想来,以后AUBURN和PARRAMATTA的发展应该也是不错的吧. 不过不知道要用多少年了

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澳洲经济热，所以加息，减少inflation,预防经济过热，不单纯看房价。工党在开始的时候还喊一喊降息，但现在也不喊了，都知道不能降。两党的主要差异在于：减税差不多。但工党更强调老百姓的权利，overtime pay, annual leave, sick leave,按时涨工资，不能随便sack，主张教育，医疗加大投入等等。而自由党过分强调经济，强调老板的权利，减少员工的福利，假期，等等。虽然我现在没有选举权，但我坚决支持工党，要不我回中国得了。

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我非常赞同布老虎兄的观点。即使仅以悉尼和墨尔本的metropolitan范围来看，我们稍加留意就可以发现，仍有大量住宅可用的土地控制在政府手中。

我个人的观点是，无论那个政党上台，政府都不可能大批量释出土地，导致房价大幅下跌，因为这不符合多数选民的利益；
同样，政府也不会坐视房价疯狂上涨，导致巨大的泡沫，因为这不符合澳洲整体经济的利益。在房价上涨达到一定程度的时候，政府只需释出一定量的土地就可有效地干预市场。

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回中国可能会更惨，过了奥运咱们等着看看。

工党政策和自由党都是趋同的，只不过天平可能微微偏向某一边而已，大体上都是要平衡劳资关系，尽力维持经济发展。

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我觉得大家说的都有道理
感觉到AU的房产,供需矛盾是个根本的问题, 需求太大, 供应太少.

需求中间, 唯一应该调节的是投资需求, 付扣税政策似乎就是 纳税人,(很可能就是中低收入者) 交钱给有钱人去炒房. 也就是说, 有钱人炒房, 亏了是大家买单的. 政府应该调整付扣税政策, 也许可以先减掉一半, 把省下来的钱补贴给租房者, 最后再慢慢取消付扣税政策 ....

供应方面, 释放土地, 大力发展公共交通, 在大学附近建些高密度住宅等, 都能解决部分供应不足的问题.

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释放更多的土地，新建几个城市，就行了。
澳洲房价高真的是政府人为造成的

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负扣税暂时没人敢动，会动摇任何一方的票舱的，除非当主流的中产都会因为某种原因失去自己的房子，因而形成主流民意要求取消负扣税，否则，没人敢拿自己的民意基础开刀。

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释出更多住宅用建地？要真的这么容易就好咯。

想想说说都容易，做起来绝非易事，牵扯太多的方方面面，首先是三级政府架构，联邦政府和州政府以及地方council政府对土地管理和审批，攸关各级政府的切身利益。。。。。。

还有就是各种基础设施的建设跟得上跟不上问题。。。。。

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此外，道路建设、公共交通、学校、医院等等，牵一发而动全身。。。

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非常赞同。:)

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我觉得政府最终也就是释放多些偏远suburb的土地，并且投资这些发展中suburb的基础设施建设，从而放出多些低价房屋，打低平均房价，但不会影响到好区和现有已发展地区的房价，最终提高低收入阶层的affordability水平。

简而言之，有钱的继续争好区，没钱的滚到新建的贫民区吧。

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最郁闷的莫过于在边远地区的人们。他们不但面临着高利率对于当地房价的影响，更面临着新开发对于supply的冲击，同时pay着更高的morgage。

很多affordability issue什么的我看全部扯淡。如果有钱的话我也想住Toorak有网球场游泳池home cinema连着Yarra River的房子。有钱不是问题，问题是没钱。

搞来稿去就是那一帮子人看着房租/房价涨了还不愿意搬，自然就闹事。便宜的地方多了去了，怎么没人去啊！

他们爱闹就闹去吧，最后能闹出一个first home free最好。该涨得地区的房价还是要涨得。房价不涨得麻烦远远比房价涨得麻烦大，因为房价跟income一样，可是说是带动household spending的关键。

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如果政府有能力出资$200 billion来提供affordable rental properties，估计negative gearing也不那么重要了。还是老问题：有钱不是问题，问题是没钱。在没那么多钱的时候，动一下negative gearing可是说对于low income的renter伤害最大，因为他们要pay可能20%more rent或者更多。澳州政府见不得这种大规模的social unrest。

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嗯，受到利率上升影响最大最首当其冲的就是这些outer suburbs，本来mortgage就到脖子了，利率上升，每周哪怕就只是要多付$10刀，一些低收入家庭就快无法承担。。。。。。。Mortgage sale势必增加。。。






No lack of interest: Caleb and Annette Grant, with Joash, 14 months, have just bought a home in Berwick. Their suburb will be hit hard by the interest rate rise.





Pain felt in mortgage belt




November 08, 2007 12:00am   Article from: Herald Sun



INTEREST rate rises hit families in Melbourne's outer southeast especially hard with La Trobe housing stress up three-quarters in six years.

In an area with a proliferation of first-home buyers and other mortgage holders, the suburbs that comprise the marginal electorate of La Trobe will be thinking of the security of their bricks and mortar when they head to the polls.

Since 2001, the number of households in mortgage stress - paying more than 30 per cent of their income on housing - in the La Trobe electorate has climbed by 73.4 per cent.

The seat is held by Liberal MP Jason Wood by a margin of 5.8 per cent.

Major centres include Berwick, Beaconsfield, Boronia and Ferntree Gully, and the electorate is a rapidly growing area commonly chosen by first-home buyers.

At Berwick's Earlsfield Drive, mortgages and interest rates are often the topic of over-the-fence banter.

Caleb and Annette Grant borrowed more than 90 per cent of the $240,000 they paid for their first home, in Earlsfield Drive, in 2005.

The couple lived in a caravan on Ms Grant's parents' property for two years while they saved for their deposit.

Soon after moving in, 14-month old Joash arrived, and the family has since paid off the mortgage relying on Mr Grant's wage as an IT consultant at a nearby private school.

When they moved into their home their interest rate was 6.5 per cent, before it climbed to 7.6.

The Grants are expecting another child.

Mr Grant said the expanding family would be strained by the most recent increase.

But he said he didn't blame the Government for the rise.

"Whatever the parties promise, at the end of the day they can't control the interest rates," he said.

"I'm more concerned about what a Government will do to keep down the cost of having a family."

Further down the road, Linda and Graham Duncan will have to forgo a few little extras to account for the rise in their mortgage repayments.

Mr Duncan, 60, a building contractor, said he hoped

for a change in Government to offset the added financial burden.

"I believe that as working people, we'll be better off under a Labor government," he said.

"Interest rates will go up no matter who's in, but I think we'll gain in other ways if Labor's in power."

For Tanya and Tony Dingle, who live next door to the Duncans and are raising seven children between one and 16 on the income generated by their business, even a small rate rise means major adjustments to the household budget.

Because the family relies on being self-employed it had to opt for a higher interest rate with a non-bank lender.

Ms Dingle said she had already shaved $100 off the weekly shopping budget by buying generic brands but would have to tighten the belt further.

"We'll be OK, but talking to friends, some of them are going to have to rent out their houses the way it keeps going up," she said.

"We'd be better off renting, but we need the security of having our own home.

"But I don't think I'd buy again."

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其实最不因该受影响的是这些人。可他们却受影响最深。唉。

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Agree.



从2000年春季到2007年春季墨尔本房价升幅最高的suburbs排名：





每周还贷增加$10刀对上述地区有影响吗？



可是对下面的地区却影响深远，事实就是如此。



下面是截止今年9月底，墨尔本地区房价最便宜的区：




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That's exactly why the government has control.

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墨尔本如此，悉尼这一现象更加突出，否则就不会有“两极分化”越演越烈之说了：



http://www..com.au/bbs/v ... D%BC%AB%B7%D6%BB%AF


http://www..com.au/bbs/v ... type%26typeid%3D101

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所以说政府是有钱人的政府,
宁愿为有钱人的亏损买单, 不愿意把这笔钱转到租房者身上去 (哪怕是转一部分)

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这样的控制非常必要。不然的话：

1，边远地区得房价进一步持平或着下降。试想一下一个working family的主要asset，增幅连inflation都没办法超过，是什么样的后果。

2，澳洲的demand高是事实，但集中也是事实，大部分在inner。边远地区一直都没什么过多的demand。

3，不光光是government，猫本6大develper控制了制至少100,000的房子的land。不开发的原因不单单是为了利益最大化，还有将来的sustainability。一个master plan需要20年才能成熟，像美国一样的快餐式开发不适合澳洲

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房价不管它。工党上不了台。

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