Property prices will plummet, says specialist
Date
February 16, 2014
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Kim Arlington
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Harry Dent's comments have caused a stir.
Harry Dent's comments have caused a stir.
A US forecaster has painted a picture of real estate armageddon, predicting Australia's property prices could plummet by as much as 50 per cent in coming years.
The forecast, by economist and demographer Harry Dent, would lead to Sydney's median house price falling from last year's record high of $763,169 to as little as $381,584.
House prices in Sydney and Melbourne have reached almost 10 times income levels - the same point they were in California when the US market peaked, Mr Dent said.
''Bubbles always go up to the point where they just become unaffordable - and then they burst,'' he said.
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''They burst precisely because they are so good.''
Mr Dent, in Australia to speak at the Save the Future conference and to promote his new book, The Demographic Cliff, said the decline in resource prices and the bursting of China's property bubble would trigger a collapse in the Australian property market.
''I think it's going to go down at least 30 per cent in the next several years and maybe as much as 50 [per cent],'' he said.
''I'd say the time to worry about property prices falling is in the first half of 2014 into as late as 2016.''
His comments have caused a storm among property observers.
His prediction ''doesn't reflect either the history or the underlying strength of the Australian housing market's dynamics,'' said Andrew Wilson, senior economist with Australian Property Monitors (owned by Fairfax Media).
''The preconditions are not there,'' Dr Wilson said. ''There is no bubble to burst.''
Dr Wilson said the current rate of growth in house prices - 15 per cent in Sydney last year - was unsustainable and he expected growth to ''moderate and flatten this year, but that's a long way short of a catastrophic fall in house prices.''
Financial economist Christopher Joye said Mr Dent was scaremongering.
''He's been saying the same thing about the Australian housing market, without actually referencing any credible fundamental analysis, for a long time,'' he said.
Mr Joye said that some house prices could fall if the Reserve Bank of Australia normalised interest rates back to 7 per cent.
The record-low cash rate and variable loan rates ''are completely and utterly unsustainable'', he said, and he was concerned that house prices were increasing at three to four times the rate of wages growth.
On his analysis, the house price to income ratio would be more expensive than it has ever been by June. ''[People] shouldn't be assuming current rates of house price appreciation will continue forever,'' Mr Joye said.
Economist Steve Keen, author of Debunking Economics and the Debt Deflation blog, agreed Australia was in the midst of a property bubble but said it was unlikely to burst soon.
''It will keep on going because the bubble's being pumped up by overseas buyers, largely Chinese, and superannuation funds - and that could give it two more years of air, maybe even more,'' he said.
Dr Keen said the main trigger for the burst would be that ''nobody who wants to live in a house can afford to buy one any more.''
评论
这种依样画胡芦的文章有什么意思？
虽然说风水轮流转，但这种生搬硬套的文章，也实在是说明作者“江郎才尽”
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无聊，扯淡文章
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我是转贴，不知你是说我还是说原作者？之所以这两天转了三篇论点雷同的文章，是觉得媒体有这股风，为什么都这时候一齐出来了呢？
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说那个作者呢， 与你无关哈
另外，媒体的话能信吗？自己要有判断力！ 媒体的话，从来就是以“吸引眼球”为主，吸引眼球的目的是吸金。
他们会是上帝吗？还说真话来拯救我等俗人不成？
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悉尼地区的中价位就是7了。
他说全中价位是3也不为过，只不过以经济来谈，看看工资收入什么的。那把偏远地区加上去，乘乘除除。
梭子二头尖，中间是胖的，人人都知道。
偏要断章取义，硬 说是“我所看到的那部分梭子是胖的”，不能说你错，但明眼人也就哈哈一笑。
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放TMD屁
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统计会反映一定的民意的。
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有可能会跌，但是应该不会跌那么多，这个价钱再算上通胀，基本就没剩了。
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我以为澳洲有势力让媒体吹风，这样来减缓低利息的作用，让少些人入市，这样他们可以在不加息的情况下保持房价稳定但不大升。低息下房价是会大升的，RBA为了经济要保持低息，但担心低息对房价的作用，希望放消息来中和一下。希望是希望，能否达至目标是另一回事。但为什么香港和天朝都同时出同类消息就不好说了。
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加拿大富豪签证cancel，申请来澳洲的势必更多。
也要看移民局给的配额有多少了，估计会稳中有升！
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RBA没这能力，他们想放什么消息只能自己出来乱说
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澳州媒体是不受政府控制的，二个大主人都是与政府唱对台戏的。
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Mr 坑，呵呵
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美国管不住大妈的钱袋子吧。
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请注意，媒体只是有钱有权佬的喉舌，在澳洲谁最有钱和有权？四大银行、矿山巨头和联邦政府。这个Mr Dent是自掏腰包不请自来么？怎么可能，是有人请他来“大放厥词”的。
今年二月以来西方资金撤出新兴市场数量已达去年全年总数，大资金规避风险从风险资产撤退的速度可谓惊人。
澳洲四大银行在澳洲房地产按揭贷款超过一万三千亿澳元，这笔资金的安全性将决定澳洲人今后几十年的福祉，一旦坏账率飙升，澳洲会死得很惨（不会好过阿根廷）。
所以当银行判断房贷质量出现恶化趋势时，他们会及时出手制止这一趋势的进一步发展，首先要做的表示将房价“调整下来”以达到一个相对安全的低点
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有一定道理，但我认为舆论是调整不了房价的升势或者跌势的，却可能调整升幅或跌幅， 即使这样能达至的还是微调。利息是主要因素， 失业率次之，别的都影响不大。
不管怎么说，悉尼晨锋报最近这么密集地唱衰澳洲房市，有背后他们"中宣部“的主观故意。
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等
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一字千斤。
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媒体是个衰落的行业，非常穷，他们没有什么“中宣部”，他们只是“中宣部”的喉舌，“中宣部”是四大银行开的，他们出钱，smh们干活儿
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没有美国身份的中国人，在美国买房的很多。我有不少国内的朋友都买了，有些还买了好几套，让我在google地图上看他们的房子。
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这样遥控管理房子会有潜在的困难。去要签证，万一办不下来，连自己的房子看都看不到。就算能去，真的有麻烦时要去一趟成本（机票精力等）也挺高的。
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最近的房市确实让人觉得胆战心惊，感觉有钱人好多，买房像买菜。
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怎么又跌了？刚刚有一个帖子还说要涨20%
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