澳洲三个原因会导致RBA下月降息

在澳大利亚地产投资





More optimistic Reserve Bank signals rates on hold

3 reasons why the RBA would cut rates

Prospects of another official interest rate cut faded sharply when Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens expressed confidence that a resurgence in business investment will revitalise the economy.

Without any sudden shock in China, new commodity price falls or another major delay in an long-awaited US interest rate hike, the Reserve Bank will keep official interest rates unchanged at 2 per cent well into next year.

The dollar rallied after the Reserve Bank board kept the cash rate steady on Tuesday and Mr Stevens declared that the outlook for improved growth had firmed in recent months thanks to a sense of hope across business.

Mr Stevens' remarks foreshadow a likely upgrade in the Reserve Bank's economic forecasts on Friday and suggest he believes Australia's transition away from resources investment to other growth drivers is gathering strength.

In the lead up to Tuesday's decision, most economist's forecasts and financial market betting indicated the Reserve Bank would lower the cash rate to 1.75 per cent early in 2016.
In the lead up to Tuesday's decision, most economist's forecasts and financial market betting indicated the Reserve Bank would lower the cash rate to 1.75 per cent early in 2016. Louie Douvis
Financial market traders slashed the probability of a rate cut in December to 32 per cent from 72 per cent ahead of the decision.

Major business leaders portrayed the central bank's actions as a vote of confidence in the economy, which is benefiting from a 20 per cent drop in the currency over the past year, an increase in business borrowing and rising spending in retail, construction, transport and services.

Qantas Airways chief executive Alan Joyce said he was quite optimistic on the economy's direction.

"The RBA are making the right call to ensure we have a competitive dollar; we're doing the right thing for inflation; we're doing the right thing for employment, and it's great to see with the new [federal] government consumer confidence and business confidence has improved," he said.

The dollar was modestly higher after the decision was announced, firming to US71.90¢ from around US71.70¢.

Mr Stevens said while headline gross domestic product growth has been below long-run averages for some time, surveys of business sentiment and conditions suggest "a gradual improvement in conditions over the past year."

Marked gains revealed in surveys

The remarks reflect marked gains in surveys such as National Australia Bank's business conditions research, ANZ Bank's job advertisement series, and comments by figures such as NAB chief executive Andrew Thorburn that confidence more broadly is lifting.

"Hopefully that can keep going because I think that will mean businesses will start to say 'right, I'm going to borrow some money or I'm going to use some of my cash to invest in new product lines'," Mr Thorburn told The Australian Financial Review last week.

Speculation grew a week ago in the wake of weak inflation data that the Reserve Bank would cut the cash rate to 1.75 per cent. Instead, Mr Stevens acknowledged low inflation may allow another cut in future but signalled this would only happen if growth again disappoints.

"The outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand," he said.

The key word in that sentence is "may", suggesting the likelihood of another rate cut will depend heavily on any unexpectedly bad economic news from China – Australia's biggest trade partner – or further falls in iron ore and coal prices.

The final driver of another rate cut may be signs that the US Federal Reserve will again delay what would be its first interest rate hike since 2006. Such a delay could drive up the value of the Australian dollar, weakening the recovery in tourism and other currency-exposed industries.

"The statement gives the RBA maximum flexibility depending on how the economy evolves," said Su-Lin Ong, an economist at RBC Capital Markets. "The onus is on the activity data to disappoint to force the reluctant RBA to move."

Mr Stevens reiterated that the Fed is expected to start increasing interest rates, while other major central banks are easing policy, which is likely to drive the US dollar up and other currencies down.

By emphasising evidence of a recovery in non-mining business spending, the Reserve Bank signalled it believes the most stimulatory monetary policy settings on record are doing enough. The central bank estimates that the drag from falling resources investment is most likely at its heaviest in the current financial year, which means its negative effect on growth will soon begin to wane.

"The board judged that the prospects for an improvement in economic conditions had firmed a little over recent months and that leaving the cash rate unchanged was appropriate at this meeting," Mr Stevens said.

He noted that volatility across global financial markets has "abated somewhat for the moment".

Mr Stevens suggested that the recent mortgage rate hikes by the big four banks would take some of the heat out of the property market but that overall rates were still very low.

"Credit growth has increased a little over recent months, with growth in lending to investors in the housing market easing slightly while that for owner-occupiers appears to be picking up."

Pointedly, Mr Stevens noted that while prices were still rising in Melbourne and Sydney, in most other cities they were subdued.

"Supervisory measures are helping to contain risks that may arise from the housing market," he said.

Mr Stevens again said that the currency was adjusting to the significant falls in iron ore, coal and energy prices.

评论
就不能翻译一下再发么

评论
up

评论
再这样发帖要扣分了!

评论

支持版主。。


评论
楼主给别人忽悠了,做了接盘侠。现在他为虎作伥,想忽悠别人接他的盘。

心情可以理解,手段稍显拙劣

评论



评论
美国要升息,我看澳洲降息可能性低了,LZ~~~

评论


为什么?纯粹好奇标准在哪里?因为没有翻译吗?

评论
楼主这是要干啥啊?

评论
Where did they " cut interest rate next month?"
THEY SAID:Mr Stevens suggested that the recent mortgage rate hikes by the big four banks would take some of the heat out of the property market but that overall rates were still very low.

评论
直播吃翔的那个去哪儿了?

评论
Where is the source?
Real estate related media?
You are pathetic!!!!!!

评论

AFR, login required

但明天你应该就可以看到版主翻译的SMH转发了

评论

You are so cute,thanks

评论

也只有靠红版了,刘总是绝对不会翻的

评论

楼主啊,我真心的劝你,不要再折腾了,你已经做了接盘侠,就安心的好好的保住工作,还好房贷,楼价总有再上涨的时候,到时候你的心情就会好的。

你再这样忽悠,折腾,是在给多军帮倒忙,你信不信,他们杀了你的心都有。

Shut up, that is the only way you have。

评论


评论
楼主彻底魔障了

评论


评论
降息降息

澳币跌到1c

评论
悉尼房地产现在就全靠屌丝哥一人撑起来了

评论

多杀多吗?多菌大量抛盘,屌丝成了接盘侠。

评论
不如把房子卖了,拜主席为师。

评论

我是来表示你看错了的。

http://www..com.au/bbs/f ... ead&tid=1133287

评论
楼主这是真误导,AFR的标题是:

More optimistic Reserve Bank signals rates on hold

翻译:乐观的储备银行暗示利率会保持不变

新闻版翻译:http://www..com.au/bbs/f ... ead&tid=1133287

评论

澳洲中文论坛热点
悉尼部份城铁将封闭一年,华人区受影响!只能乘巴士(组图)
据《逐日电讯报》报导,从明年年中开始,因为从Bankstown和Sydenham的城铁将因Metro South West革新名目而
联邦政客们具有多少房产?
据本月早些时分报导,绿党副首领、参议员Mehreen Faruqi已获准在Port Macquarie联系其房产并建造三栋投资联

过户律师,悉尼,买房卖房合同,看合同,conveyancer,律师,房产过户

地产投资

四种风格迥异的房产中介,哪个靠谱?

澳大利亚四种风格的房产中介,哪种更靠谱? 1、该区近12个月售出同类型房源数量最多。房子平均上市时间约为 40 天。说话的风格很沉着冷静,不急不躁。卖的房子有的在PRICE范围内,有的稍微 ...

地产投资

一个小小的冲动,在west gosford买了房子

澳大利亚朋友今年年中90万元在悉尼南区买了一套小房子,但很快就受到中庸之师的影响,以103.5万元的价格卖掉了。现在他看到高铁的报道,一时冲动在West Gosford买了房子。步行 15 分钟即可到达 ...

地产投资

(VIC) 咨询租房安全检查

澳大利亚作为墨尔本的租户,我今天查看并签署了condition report,发现在Information Reforming Safety部分,所有项目(smoker detector、electrical safety、gas safety)的last check date都填N/A。这是个问题吗?一般房 ...

地产投资

还清自住和再融资以购买投资

澳大利亚记得听人说用房子贷款,再贷款自住,再贷款不能超过自住评估价的数额,不占个人收入的可贷数额?请帮我确认是否有这样的说法。 评论 澳洲国内没有类似的按揭贷款。所谓按揭贷款 ...

地产投资

咨询四大银行贷款利率

澳大利亚看利率的人眼花缭乱。貌似四大银行里面,很多返现的利率也是偏高的。 cash back平分利息是真的吗? 转来转去好麻烦。不想转账的话,四大银行哪家利率最低? 评论 我8月转ANZ,当时拿 ...

地产投资

房东在一年内失去首付的例子

澳大利亚17 Tamar St, Ringwood 北 2021年12月买入107万 2022 年 10 月售出 900,000 件 中低价位楼盘10个月至少能亏25W,不容易 评论 06D0D8BD-E16A-429B-A1DE-64F9FBDE5517.jpeg (169.97 KB,下载次数:0) 下载附件 于20 ...

地产投资

祝各位经纪人朋友圣诞快乐

澳大利亚现在流行的题材就是骂中介,把房价砍一半,一言不合就互相批评,一点商量精神都没有,跟过去大不相同。在此光明正大的向中介朋友们表扬一下。 点评 中介在骂声中赚钱,他们过着 ...

地产投资

请问第一个月的房租什么时候可以到?

澳大利亚租客入住之前,或者一个月之后,或者第一个月的房租,中介基本都会包各种费用吗?谢谢! 评论 你没有合同?没有协议?一般管理费是租金的5%,找租客的租金是一周的租金,还有广 ...

地产投资

终止租户合同的最短时限是多少?

澳大利亚有投资房,租客最早签一年合同。期满后,承租人继续居住,无需继续签订合同,即Periodic agreement。现在住的房子卖了,想搬回投资房。代理人给了当前租户 90 天的搬出通知。但是有人 ...

地产投资

风云突变,央行要加速加息?

澳大利亚今天股市的快速下跌是因为刚刚发布的央行会议纪要。 可能有必要加快加息步伐。楼市休市,等明年二月。 现金为王 评论 我不太了解新闻 到最后就是12月加50分 或者把12月加25分改成 ...

地产投资

你知道北桥的评论吗?

澳大利亚这个最近卖了5.2m,价格怎么样?与一年前相比,是下降了还是差不多? http://www.realestate.com.au/pr ... orthbridge-nsw-2063 评论 Northbridge这个价位绰绰有余 评论 不是和其他区的横向比较,而是 ...