Author: CMC Markets, Tina Teng
上周市场:
上周全球股市大幅收跌, 主要受原油价格再次深度跳水与美联储本周加息预期影响. 美国道琼斯指数下跌3.26%, 收盘17265; 美国标普指数收跌3.79%, 收盘2012点. 欧洲斯托克指数50跌幅3.83%，英国富实指数100收跌4.58%，德指30下跌3.83；恒生指数下跌3.47%，收盘21464； 澳指200收跌0.16%至5029。
数据来源：布伦伯格
原油继续大幅下滑，纽约商品交易所美国得克萨斯原油期货价格再度跳水4.48美元，跌幅10.88%，收盘35.62美元；伦敦商品交易所英国布伦特原油期货价格下跌11.79%， 收盘37.93美元。贵金属方面，黄金小幅收跌1.07%，收盘1074.77美元/盎司；白银跌4.33%，收盘13.92美元/盎司。
美元指数继续回落， 美指12月份远期下滑0.77%， 收盘97.59；欧元与日元均有大幅反弹，欧美收涨1.1%，1.0988；美日下跌1.89%， 120.87。
美国10年期国债由2.269%下跌至 2.127%。
上周大事：
新西兰央行将其官方利率(OCR)下调0.25个百分点至2.5%. 决议公布后, 纽币未跌反涨, 当日，纽币/美元由最低0.6579上涨140余点至0.6719. 这是我们通常所说的”买事实”的情况, 主要是由于此次降息是绝大部分投资者的预料之中, 交易者对于风险与利润回报率的考量而进行的买涨行为所致；
澳洲11月份就业数据录得增加7.14万人，远远超过市场预期的减少10.0万人口，其失业率由10月份的5.9%下降为5.8%，预期为6.0%。数据公布后，当日，澳币/美元上涨50点至0.7281， 随后迅速回撤，周五收盘0.7187；
人民币指数首次公布，中国央行首次公布人民币指数，按照人民对一篮子主要货币的权重进行计算得出。人民币汇率指数为102.93， 较2014年底升值2.93%。这意味着市场观察人民币的视角将由人民币对美元的双边汇率转由多方综合汇率，更加能够反映人民币在多边贸易中的情况，也更加能够发挥汇率调节进出口、投资及国际收支的作用。在一篮子货币权重中，美元占17.8%，欧元占18.7%，日元占14.1%，英镑占2.9%；
人民币兑美元再次大幅贬值850点，离岸人民币兑美元上周由开盘价格6.4451涨至6.5300. 中国被国际货币基金组织批准加入国际储备货币SDR，中国央行将逐步放开对人民币汇率的管控，实行人民币价值自由浮动。央行自2014年11月份以来实行6次降息，5次降准来促进资金流动性了，刺激发展，并且12月份有再次降息的预期；
中国11月份进出口总值录得22.08万亿元，同比下降7.8%。其中，出口12.71万亿元，下降2.2%；进口9.37万亿，下降14.4%。贸易顺差3.34万亿元，扩大63%。中国11月份工业生产增长6.2%，预期5.7%。中国固定资产投资11月份增长10.2%，预期10.1%；
瑞士央行与英国央行均保持其官方利率不变在-0.75%与0.5%.瑞士央行的货币政策会议上表示，瑞郎价值依旧被大大高估，会继续保持对于汇率市场的干预以稳定物价与经济增长；而英国央行在上半年的加息预期滑为泡影，是由于国内通胀率始终低迷，10月份CPI同比下降0.1%。核心通胀率预期在1%以下一直到2016年下半年。
本周大事展望：
周一：日本Tankan制造业与非制造业指数
周二：欧洲央行行长德拉吉讲话
澳洲货币政策会议内容
澳洲第三季度房价指数
英国11月份消费物价指数
英国11月份生产价格指数
英国11月份零售价格指数
德国12月份ZEW经济敏感度调查
周三：加拿大10月份制造业销售变化
美国11月份消费价格指数与核心消费价格指数
全球乳制品价格拍卖
加拿大央行行长Poloz讲话
新西兰第二季度经常账
法国12月份制造业采购经理人指数（闪估）
法国12月份服务业采购经理人指数（闪估）
德国12月份制造业采购经理人指数（闪估）
德国12月份服务业采购经理人指数（闪估）
欧洲12月份制造业采购经理人指数（闪估）
欧洲12月份服务业采购经理人指数（闪估）
英国10月份平均工资指数变化
英国11月份失业人数变化
周四： 美国11月份建筑许可
美国联邦公开市场委员会经济预测
美国联邦公开市场委员会基准利率
-美国12月份加息预期强烈，美联储有可能在本次会议上决议加息0.25个百分点，现行基准利率为0.25%以下。美国加息将对全球股市与货币市场有直接的重要影响。近期全球股市均有下行迹象，加息有可能给股市带来更大的压力；美元虽然仍居历史高位，但近期相对主要货币有回撤迹象。
美国联邦公开市场委员会议息会议内容
美国联邦公开市场委员会新闻发布会
新西兰第三季度GDP
德国Ifo商业气候调查
英国11月份零售数据
周五：美国费城制造业生产指数
美国申请失业救济金人数
新西兰ANZ银行12月份商业信心调查
日本货币政策内容
日本央行新闻发布会
周六：加拿大11月份核心消费物价指数
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
评论
本周四将迎来市场瞩目已久的美国联邦市场公开委员会议息会议, 在本次会议上委员会成员将讨论并作出决议是否将实行10年以来的第一次加息. 根据布伦伯格对美国债券市场交易情况统计, 美国将在此次会议上加息的机会有76%. 这将对美国国债市场带来直接的冲击, 美国债券市场很有可能因为利息率的提高而由此打开跌势, 尤其为短期国债.
自美国宣布其加息预期后, 迄今为止, 本年度内美国短期与长期国债收益率均有上涨, 其中, 美国一年期国债收益率上涨0.48%至0.67%, 美国2年期国债收益率上涨0.41%至0.96%, 美国10年期国债上涨0.14%至2.23%. 短期债券收益率-6个月国债, 一年期与两年期国债涨幅最大. 这也意味着这些市场面临下跌的风险最强.
澳大利亚最大基金管理与投资公司之一QIC的一个基金经理称因为债券市场有崩塌的风险，使其转向高频交易的外汇市场，认为外汇市场能够更好的反映经济形势与政策变动，相比之下能够带来更大的收益．
美国国债收益率情况
数据来源：布伦伯格
美国债券收益率基准指数走势
昨日，美国国债收益率指数，美国政府机构收益率指数与美国企业债券收益率指数分别上涨0.86%, 0.23%与0.44%. 美国各方面债券市场已经对于利息成本提高的预先反映．从CMC Markets美国国债的盘面上看，美国国债2年期国债的下跌形态最为明显， 其收益率曲线也是相比最为敏感的。
相比之下， 美国长期国债并没有像短期国债显现的跌势那样明显。美国10年期国债收益率是数万亿美元债务成本的导向，同时也是放映长期经济走势的指标。在2010年，美国10年期国债收益率达4.01%。 虽然美联储在本次会议上决定加息基本可以说是势在必行，但由于加息将意味着政府间债务，银行间债务与企业债务成本的提高，任何不适时宜的行动，都有可能将影响蔓延到世界其他经济体。在当今世界经济下，处于债务风险考虑，其加息的进程很可能是循序渐进，不会以激进的步伐来进行。由此，美国长期国债收益率可能不会因此的大幅变动，低收益率仍然可能是中长期的运行趋势。则10年国债与30年国债很可能仍旧是投资组合中的主要成份而在较稳定的空间进行。
美国10年期国债收益率走势
数据来源：布伦伯格
从CMC Markets10年期美国国债的图表上看，10年期国债价格在中长的运行空间将有可能稳定在123.80-131.30的空间。
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
评论
复星集团董事长郭广昌在失联４日后，昨日现身公司年会并作演讲。复星控股旗下的多家公司复牌，但因受事件影响而股票大跌。其中，复星医药股票下跌3.77%, 收盘21.90；复星国际股票下跌9.45%, 南钢股份下跌1.26%。
据东方财富网报道，上周四，被称为“中国的巴菲特”的复星集团董事长郭广昌被传失联。第二日（12月11日），复星控股的６家上市公司纷纷停牌，包括：复星国际，复星医药，豫园商城，上海钢联，南钢股份与海南矿业。11晚，复星国际公告称：郭先生现正协助相关内地司法机构调查。郭先生可以适当方式参与公司重大事项之决策，公司董事认为，这并未对本集团的财务或经营有任何重大不利影响，公司目前运营一切正常。
郭广昌在本次复星集团年会上的演讲主题是生长，生长要依靠重塑和创新，复星的成长根本在于根植于中国。复星集团目前在做全球投资，但根基还在中国，产业布局要体现中国优势，更加条理打造全球化平台。郭广昌的献身使得内部员工受到鼓舞，一位员工表示：“同事们在现场都很感动，郭总出现还是很振奋人心的”。
集团副董事长梁信军表示，“复兴系”的股票被低估，有增值的空间。公司事件引起股价波动，只是给价值投资者提供了投资空间。他本人不会卖复星股票。
香港表普指数分析师Laurence Lu在周一的笔记中写道：“郭先生是复星发展与公司近期向金融业扩展的的中粱砥柱”。他没有对复星评级做出改变。但同时也 写道，如果对复星的调查进一步进行，有可能影响其公司的募股融资的进程。
从在香港上市的上海复星医药盘面上来看，昨日出现空头回补的迹象，收近似止跌锤形态，虽然投资者仍然对于公司前景担忧，但对于实际的公司市值来讲，有可能正像梁先生所表示有事件性影响被低估的可能性存在。公司在2015年上半年营业额达5.871万亿港币，同比2014年上半年增长6.7%。现行每股收益为56港分。
如果空头回补成型，后多头跟入，公司股票有可能再次重新站上24-25港币的市值。
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
评论
今日凌晨的全球乳制品拍卖中，乳制品均价为2458美元/公吨，较前次仅上涨1.9%，远差于市场预期的5%-10%。失望的数据使得纽币在近期的高位迅速回落，纽币对 美元由数据公布之前的0.68附近一度下滑近60余点至0.6742后回调，截止新西兰时间8点30分，其汇率运行于0.6758附近。
在本次拍卖价格中，全脂奶粉的价格增长1.8%至2304美元/公吨， 仍然距离理想价位3000美元/公吨有很大的距离。其价格由今年2月份最高均价3272美元/公吨，跌至8月份最低1590美元/公吨，有10月份出现反弹至2824美元/公吨，后又持续走低。3000美元是新西兰恒天然乳业固体奶在本年底至明年初预期收购价格4.6纽币/千克的价格支撑，而DairyNZ的最新调查绝大多数奶农的理想价格是5.4纽币/千克，这使得新西兰奶农的收益更让人担忧.
全球乳制品10年价格指数走势
数据来源：Globledairytrade
驻芝加哥的乳品专家Jon Spainhour表示，在恒天然乳业逐步减产的情况下，本次的乳品拍卖结果对市场也许是一个熊市的信号。由于价格并没有因为减产而有明显的改善。他说道：“在过去，这（减产）将 引起市场更大的反应”。价格难以回升，仍旧是由于欧洲乳品生产量增加。他相信欧洲正逐步抢占美国与新西兰的买方市场，使得市场更加饱和。
上周，恒天然乳业将未来12个月的全脂奶粉产量缩减了3.763公吨，削减幅度达9.7%。这也使得年度全球乳制品产量降至35.2万公吨，是5年来低位。本次如制品价格的上涨幅度让人失望，市场前景不为乐观。纽币在近期有持续走高迹象，但昨日由于乳制品价格不及预期出现高位回落。同时，明天将有市场瞩目已久的美国联邦公开市场委员会的议息会议，美国加息可能短期内进一步推高美元，加之新西兰央行上周的下调利率，也许纽币将迎来又一波跌势。
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
评论
明日早北京时间凌晨3点钟（澳大利亚时间早5点钟，新西兰时间早8点钟），美国联合公开市场委员会将对是否实行自2006年以来第一次增加联邦基金利率作出决议。据各方面统计来看，本次加息基本是势在必然，美元有可能再次走强。
技术形态上看，各非美货币经过进行大幅反弹后，均有预准再次下跌的迹象。我们可以从各主要的货币的盘面上来作探讨。
欧元/美元的潜在技术回撤位置可能在1.07整数位置附近；美元/日元的潜在上行目标可能在122.40附近；纽币/美元与澳币美元的潜在回调位置可能分别在0.6580与0.7020左右。
欧元在欧洲央行的扩大宽松让人失望后近两周有大幅反弹，但在1.1整数位置受阻始终无法顺利突破，逐步出现多头回吐的迹象。加之欧洲宽松与美国收紧的政策性反差，欧元/美元可能再次下行，潜在目标首看1.07附近;
美元/日元的日线图中可以看出近两日有明显短期的潜在小底部形态出现，前日的止跌锤后昨日收柱体较长的阳柱，上方的进一步潜在目标将可能在122.45附近；
以前的文章中写到过，澳币/美元在突破长期的下行通道后，仍然在横盘整理的区间0.7020-0.7380内运行，上周在横盘定部回调，本周有可能下探通道下轨0.7020附近的位置;
纽币由于今晨时间的乳品拍卖价格涨幅不尽人意，已经出现顶部回调的迹象。如果日线图中近似上行通道顶部受阻下行，下方的潜在第一目标可能在0.6680，如果突破下跌则又可能再次挑战0.6580- 0.6600的区间。
但如果明日美联储决定加息，则美元有可能不会无止境的继续走强下去，各非美货币在短期回调后仍然有再次触底反弹的机会。当今国际经济形势下，强势加息有可能导致全球债务风险而再次引发危机，美联储可能会循序渐进的实行收紧，市场各方面可能会经历短暂震荡后回到正常轨道上。
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
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北京时间凌晨3点钟（新西兰时间上午8点钟），美联储如市场所预期提高其联邦基准利率0.25个百分点至0.25%-0.5%的区间。美元先跌后涨，在数据公布之后迅速走低后又迅速反弹呈上涨趋势。美元指数最低触及97.66后迅速反弹至98.48附近。其他主要货币均冲高后回落，呈双边震荡走势。欧元/美元在触及最后1.1013附近后回落100点至1.0900整数位置附近；美元/日元在跌落最低121.37后反弹近100点至122.32附近。同时，全球股市全线上涨，主要是由于在会议内容陈述中，美联储主席耶伦提到加息将“循序渐进”的进行，宽松（Accommodative）的货币政策仍然是当今经济形势下的主体。截至北京时间晨时4点50份，美国道琼斯指数上涨1.43%，美国标普指数上涨1.47%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.63%。欧洲与亚洲股市也出现较大涨幅，德国指数30（DAX）上涨0.18%， 澳指200上涨2.42%。
数据公布后股市全线上涨
数据来源：布伦伯格
根据17位官方人员的预测，至2016年底，美联储将提高其基准利率至1.375%，这意味着在明年一年之内，美联储将有可能持续季度性加息。在议息会议内容陈述中，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员表示，“委员会判断劳劳动力已经有很大的改善，对于通货膨胀率的上升有合理的信心”，本次加息是基于“对于经济前景的展望，目前时间段的政策调整是影响未来经济走势的合适时间”。同时还指出，“委员会认为经济现状需要加息循序渐进的进行”，但“实际加息的进程需要依据未来的经济数据而定”。
美联储预期加息进程
数据来源：布伦伯格
对于资产负债表，FOMC将保持其不变“直到联邦基准利率达到正常水平并趋向稳定”。作为本次加息的部分决议，美联储将隔夜逆回购利率由0.05%至0.25%。同时提高其对于超额准备金的利率由0.25%至0.5%. 另外，美联储成员一致投票将银行借贷利率提高至1%。
美联储本次加息是自2006年6月份以来的第一次加息，代表着美国新一轮加息开始。上一轮加息是发生在2004年6月至2006年6月，其加息背景是抑制房市泡沫的产生，当时两年间将基准利率由1%上调至5.25%。后因房市的“次贷危机”引发全球性金融危机，美联储随后大幅降息至到现在。美国的减息使得美元大幅下滑，大宗商品价格长期上涨直道去年6月份。随后，美联储发出将逐步结束其资产购买后，美元迅速底部反弹，大宗商品与其他货币自此下滑。
本次加息的重大意义在于，美国加息意味着其经济形势在08金融危机后逐步好转而开始实行货币正常化的开始。但由于目前经济形势仍然处于风险时期，“循序渐进”是加息的必行之途径，否则有再次引发如08危机的风险。实际美联储早已经在去年就开始缩减资产购买开始逐步货币紧缩， 本次加息是其在逐步收紧政策进程中的一个正常步骤。
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
评论
今日，伴随美联储提高联邦基金利率0.25个百分点，香港金融管理局亦将其基准利率提高0.75个百分点至 1.25%，这是香港金融管理局自08年以来第一次上调基准利率。
基准利率的提高从根本上讲是为抑制经济过热，实行货币紧缩的一项举措，在当前情况下，可以说是货币政策逐步回归正规的步骤之一。今日在美联储加息以后，全球股市未因融资成本提高下跌而反成涨势，有可能是由于美联储示意“循序渐进”加息的鸽派言词所致。那么，香港恒生指数伴随全球股市今日的行情也可能先呈涨势。但香港基准利率的提高将直接影响到银行借贷成本的增加，有可能对房市起到抑制作用，加之国际大宗商品价格仍然低迷，中国经济呈现下行风险的情况下，在一定时期仍将对股市起到抑制作用。
技术形态上看，恒生指数近期潜在上行阻力可能在22800附近，如果能够突破此位置上行，则进一步的上方阻力位置将可能在24300附近。
周线图上可以看到自11月18日以来，香港恒生指数便运行在下降通道中，目前有望再次上探此下降通道的上轨位置22800附近，这里同时也是保利加通道中轨位置，如果能够成功上破并站稳此位置之上，则上方的进一步上行目标有可能在保利加通道上轨与黄金分割延展线100%左右的位置，这个位置在24300附近。
月线图中可以看出长期的上行趋势已经在8月份大幅下破，在当前经济形势下，股市难以再次回到长期涨势的趋势中，24000点的区间仍然是重要的阻力位置。
另外，恒生指数的走势与中国内陆经济形势大为相关，在中国经济宽松当局下，有可能对其有短期支持。
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
评论
美联储昨日实行10年以来的第一次加息后，美元再次走强，导致大宗商品价格再次跳水至16年低位，使得股市昨日自开盘高位回落。
大宗商品与股市承压
纽约商品交易所原油期货价格再次破位35美元，下跌近1美元，昨日最低触及34.63美元。黄金从最高1073.43美元下跌20美元之1052美元附近。大宗商品价格下滑导致昨日全球股市高开低走。尤其是美国三大股指全线收跌，至美国股市晚盘时间，道琼斯指数下跌0.76%，美国标普指数下跌0.77%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.64%。
美国得克萨斯原油走势
数据来源：布伦伯格
美元指数与大宗商品指数相对走势
数据来源：布伦伯格
昨日在加息公布后，各大股指急速走高，是由于美联储加息给予了投资者对于市场经济前景的信心。但美元的再次走强，使得原油等大宗商品价格再次跳水，加之企业与银行间融资成本的提高，在当前全球经济仍然疲软的状况下，使得股市回落。
非美货币全线下跌
美元相对其他主要货币再次大幅走强，欧元/美元下跌100余点至1.08整数位置附近；美元/日元自昨日开盘上涨60余点至122.81；商品货币纷纷再度跳水，纽币/美元汇率下滑超100点至0.6694附近；澳币/美元跌100余点至0.7123；美元/加币上涨170余点至1.3956附近。
新兴市场面临压力
昨日，在美联储将联邦基金基准利率加息0.25个百分点后，香港金融管理局（HKMA）也随之提高了基准利率，将其核心利率由0.5%调高0.75个百分点至1.25%，自2008年以来第一次加息。这将会使得由于香港经济放缓的现状下，再度承受借贷成本升高的压力。HKMA首席执行官Norman Chan表示，美联储的决定意味着新兴市场的经济将会经历资本外流与货币汇率下滑，经济增长与资产市场的压力。
墨西哥央行如预期将基准利率上调0.25个百分点至3.25%，同样是自2008年以来的第一次加息。美元/墨西哥比索汇率自8月份以来一直高位运行，昨日小幅收涨，现行于17整数位置附近。目前，墨西哥央行协同秘鲁、哥伦比亚、智利巴西几国央行走上其加息旅程，主要是面临国内通胀率过高压力。加息带来的债务压力，使得新兴市场经济前景着实令人担忧。
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
评论
昨日在加息公布后，各大股指急速走高，是由于美联储加息给予了投资者对于市场经济前景的信心。但美元的再次走强，使得原油等大宗商品价格再次跳水，加之企业与银行间融资成本的提高，在当前全球经济仍然疲软的状况下，使得股市回落。美国股市高位运行已久，自8月份大幅回调后逐步反弹回调。美联储昨日加息代表其将逐步实行财政政策收紧的开始。加息“双刃剑”下美国三大股指高位回调并非是非正常走势。
但技术形态上体现出三大股指仍呈现下行压力，那么短期内美国三大股指的潜在支持位置分别在哪里？
三个股指目前均运行与横盘整理的通道中，短期内或将继续下探通道底部位置，通过使用黄金分割线来看，美国道琼斯指数下方的潜在支持位置在17150附近，美国标普指数500仍然面临挑战2000整数位置的风险，美国纳斯达克指数100的潜在下行目标在4480左右。如果这些位置被下行突破，则空头可能再行跟入而导致美股市场的再度修正。根据17位官方人员的预测，至2016年底，美联储将提高其基准利率至1.375%，这意味着在明年一年之内，美联储将有可能持续季度性加息。其他国家可能将纷纷加入加息行列而使得经济增长放缓，经济大环境下投资者需要警惕股市下行风险。
Disclaimer: Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.
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