最近我一直在想一个问题,到底是哪些人急着在这个阶段买房?
当然这要House和公寓分开说
House
1、因为躲避疫情?赶紧买个House搬进去,不用再担心电梯和邻居了?
2、反正是work from Home,索性买个House 搬到郊区去?
3、现在换房风险小,反正是下行中,先卖了公寓,现在买个House或许还能挑挑,早日实现House梦。
公寓
1、首次置业者:自己的房子更放心,趁低价实现置业梦想。
2、投资者:疫情控制住,未来经济会好转,现在马上谷底了,抄个底。
3、现在换房风险小,反正是下行中,先卖了小公寓,现在买个大公寓或许还能挑挑,住得宽敞点。
以上几点属于个人臆想,不知各位大侠什么看法?
以下是我收集的一些市场预测,供参考。
1. SQM Research:30% decline
Mr Christopher says a "V-shaped" recovery, "where dwelling prices fall in the June quarter but start to rise again in the September or December quarters" could still occur if COVID-19 cases continue to fall and restrictions are gradually lifted during May. However, if a second wave of the virus occurs and restrictions were prolonged, he expects a "major fall" in housing prices. "When I say major we're talking up to a 30 per cent decline over a 12-month period, with the bulk of those declines occurring in Sydney and Melbourne," he said.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-24/worst-case-scenario-house-prices-fall-30pc-coronavirus-shutdown/12177084
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2. Westpac:20% decline
Westpac is forecasting a 20 per cent plunge in house prices this year in Australia's biggest property markets as coronavirus sparks a recession.
Westpac chief executive Peter King feared a property market recovery that began in mid-2019 would be unwound because of coronavirus.
'House prices are expected to fall through the remainder of 2020, reversing the recent recoveries, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne,'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8283269/Australias-biggest-housing-markets-plunge-20-foreign-student-arrivals-hit-rock-bottom.html
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3. NAB:10-15% decline
National Australia Bank predicted capital city house prices would fall by 10 to 15 per cent during the next 12 to 18 months, as unemployment hit levels unseen since the 1930s Great Depression.
The bank's chief economist Alan Oster expected apartment values to plunge at an even steeper pace than houses in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in particular.
'We expect dwelling prices to fall by around 10 per cent this year and decline further in the first half of 2021 before levelling off.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8295565/NAB-predicts-double-digit-falls-Sydney-Melbourne-house-prices.html
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4. ANZ:10% decline
Weakening household income, reduced population growth and subdued demand will depress the housing market by 10 per cent, according to ANZ.
“We anticipate prices will bottom out in mid-2021 as affordability improves, but the recovery is likely to be relatively gradual given that unemployment is expected to remain above 7 per cent until 2022,” ANZ senior economist Felicity Emmett said.
https://www.afr.com/property/residential/house-prices-to-bottom-out-by-mid-2021-20200507-p54qma
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5. CBA: 10% decline
Sydney and Melbourne property prices could tumble by 10 per cent or more in the next six months with Commonwealth Bank economists warning coronavirus pandemic economic shutdowns will make a house correction "inevitable".
The bank's head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, said there were a series of headwinds facing the property market that would all result in downward pressure on prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sydney-melbourne-house-prices-facing-10-per-cent-fall-cba-20200417-p54kox.html
评论
估计之前汇率3.9的时候换了一大笔的钱的人,要把钱花掉
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有现金且自主的人
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有一丝对抗通货膨胀的原因
第二是现在贷款困难 手握现金购房 面对的竞争小
第三是很多区房价已经下降一些
第四是每个house都不一样 看到完美符合自己要求的就下手
评论
嗯嗯刚才我也突然想到这个问题
他就是墨尔本天一凉起来就开始出现的问题 然后我看他碗里的水他基本动都不动
这两天他开始跑上桌子来喝我杯子里的水,难道是因为我的水都是温水么
评论
这是宠物版乱入?
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hahhahah sorry
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谢谢大家的快速回复,大家觉得会有人因为疫情而加速买House的进程吗?
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2008年经济危机时候也恐慌,也没人买。
普通人这时候最好按兵不动。
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趁乱跑出来 / 洗出来的钱,赶紧找落脚
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楼主的意思是 我想买 请大家帮我多攒几个买的理由
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现在利息比房租还要便宜,你觉得什么人在买房??
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看来大家对我这个因为怕疫情而买House住宽敞点这个想法不太认同,我身边真有人因为这个原因买了房:)
评论
这些大银行预测水平不行,哪比得上大上的中介们。
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租金在跌的情况下,确实也比还贷贵
评论
如果很大几率三个月后疫情冲击带来的滞后效应使得房价更低,你会急于现在购买吗?
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从17年高峰期过了之后,市场上的主流买家一直都不是华人,不管你买不买,每个区还是有那么些成交量在发生
评论
你确定是很大几率么? 未来的事情谁也无法预测。说不定疫情控制住 复工复课,现在这个利率水平,到时候又涨上去了。
评论
涨是在人口增加、经济上行、税业缓和的前提下,客观地看,这三个点都看空,持有成本比较高的物业,owner会恐慌算正常吧。当然deep pocket能撑得住。
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感慨一下,货币贬值的厉害啊!以前ATM取100,都是2个50。只有取现大于百元的时候,会出整张百元大钞。现在取100,都是给1张100:)
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角度刁钻,也有道理,哈哈哈
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房源少了
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利率那么低,钱放在银行是傻子。我指的是有钱买房的人。
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必须要考虑到一些人是持有多国护照的,澳元比较低,美欧现在开动印钞机的话,从美欧调资金买入澳洲悉尼或者墨尔本房产盈利可能性很高。版里有个新闻就是说3,4月份来至美加的买房资金增长快。
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應該是撿便宜的人,但我的房子正好今天賣出了~
沒有賺得很漂亮,但是也不算賣的太差~
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恭喜,房子没大缺点,还是好卖的,挑好久了,要不要价高不讲价的,要不不是破旧就是大路的,难受。
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现在根本没什么好房子放出来,这利率,低了不卖就完事了,没必要贱卖
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请问您卖的是 house 还是公寓?
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謝謝阿,我是大半年前就和租客說好要賣房了,也都和房仲說好了,第一次open house後本來已經下了offer,又取消,接下來就遇到封鎖了,現在就便宜點希望買家也開心囉~
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我賣的是悉尼上北區的公寓
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