We developed a process that uses 40 statistical and fundamental data sets to determine whether suburbs are over or under supplied. We start with statistical data and, when we’ve narrowed down the selection, we move on to fundamental factors such as population, economic activity, supply of dwellings, infrastructure, urban renewal… the list goes on. Everything is weighted based on relative importance to the supply/demand equation.
Below I want to show you how you can use some of the statistical indicators we use when buying investment properties. Some of these are freely available from Australian property websites, while others are sourced from local research houses.
Vendor Discounting – Vendor discounting is the difference between the asking price and the sale price for a property. Data on vendor discounting is available at http://www.domain.com.au for each suburb or at http://www.homepriceguide.com.au. A large vendor discount (greater than 7%) indicates a buyer’s market where sellers are more willing to negotiate downwards on their original asking price. This could be a result of decreasing demand, an over supply of property or both. In this sort of market discounted prices can be found, although there is a risk to capital growth.
On the other hand a small vendor discount (less than 4%) indicates strong demand for properties in a suburb; in other words, a seller’s market. In essence, the cause is undersupply of properties relative to demand. This is a great indicator for capital growth, however it does not necessarily mean there will be great investment opportunities because it’s important to consider the context. If the suburb is over heated – if prices have been rising consistently for some time – this could actually be a disincentive to future buyers in the short term.
Days on Market – The number of days on the market is a great indicator of demand and can vary significantly by suburb. 90 days is the average time a property takes to sell, so ideally we look to suburbs that have been on the market for fewer. When demand is strong, 90 days would be considered a long time on the market. Days on Market can be sourced through http://www.homepriceguide.com.au.
Stock on Market % – This is the number of properties currently for sale in a suburb as a percentage of the number of properties in that suburb. Not all suburbs are the same size; 50 properties for sale in a suburb would be considered high supply if there are only 1,000 properties in total, but in a suburb of 20,000 properties, 50 would indicate low supply. So we need to calculate the number of properties for sale as a percentage of properties in total. A low figure represents an undersupply of properties. Stock on Market % can be sourced through http://www.homepriceguide.com.au.
Vacancy Rates – A low vacancy rate (the average time a property spends vacant) indicates that there is either high demand for rental accommodation, low supply, or a combination of both. A vacancy rate of 3% is considered ‘normal’. If it reaches 4% or above, you should be concerned. 2% is great, while 1% or lower means there may be a boom in rents imminently. One of the places you can source this data is research houses such as SQM Research (www.sqmresearch.com.au).
Online Search Interest – Before real estate websites existed, data on search interest was only ever anecdotal. These days at http://www.realestate.com.au you can view search interest easily. What you are looking for is a high ratio of people searching for properties in a suburb against the properties listed for sale in that suburb. A ratio of 30:1 searches vs. listings indicates strong interest. To access this data, click on the ‘suburb data’ menu on the left and select a state and suburb.
Auction Clearance Rates – Not all properties that go to auction actually sell – some are passed in. So we look to auction clearance rates (the ratio of properties selling at auction vs. those going to auction) as an indicator of demand. A clearance rate of 80% or higher generally means there is strong bidding and therefore strong demand. Clearance rates below 60% indicate low demand and that the market is perhaps not suited to auctions. Auction clearance rates by suburb for the most recent month can be found at http://www.domain.com.au. Auction clearance rates for the past week can be found on http://www.realestate.com.au.
Areas of interest
Suburbs in under supply
Our own analysis suggests units in Fortitude Valley and Newstead in Brisbane are currently undersupplied and have all the indicators that tend to translate into upwards pressure on prices. Data in these case studies is sourced from Resolution Research unless otherwise stated.
Fortitude Valley Units
Fortitude Valley units stand out in a statistical sense with low days on market, stock on market and vacancy rates as well as high online search interest. In addition, high rental yields of 6.1% are attracting investors seeking potential cash-flow positive investments, even with 100% of capital borrowed given the prevailing interest rate environment.
Vendor Discounting Rate 5%
Days on Market 79
Stock on Market 0.98%
Vacancy Rates 1.8%
Online Search Interest ratio 57 (www.realestate.com.au)
Rental Yields 6.1%
Adding to the picture are positive fundamentals around population projections, employment growth and apartment approvals. The Australian Bureau of Statistics predicts suburb population growth from 5,545 people in 2016 to 16,330 people in 2036 (an increase of 10,790 new residents), translating into high demand for new dwellings. Meanwhile, there have been approximately 20,000 jobs relocated to the area with companies including Energex, Macquarie Bank, Bank of Queensland and Tatts Lotto. We consider jobs to be a key driver of capital gains because people prefer to live as close as reasonably practicable to where they work.
Current Population 5,530
Persons per Household 2.2
Projected Population Increase 16,330 by 2036 (ABS)
Dwellings Required 4,900
Shortfall of Dwellings 2,200
Completing the picture, there is a total of 2,711 apartments, either commenced, approved or being considered for approval within the suburb, summarised in the following table.
Status Projects Units
Commenced 1 216
Possible 12 2,426
Firm 6 69
Total 19 2,711
Newstead Units
From the table below you can see days on market, stock on market, vacancy rates and online search interest all paint a positive picture for Newstead units. 5.8% rental yields are currently attracting investors, too.
Vendor Discounting Rate 6%
Days on Market 77
Stock on Market 1.18%
Vacancy Rates 2.1%
Online Search Interest 64 (Realestate.com.au)
Rental Yields 5.8%
Beyond these statistical indicators, one of the key drivers in Newstead are the significant urban renewal programs at RNA Showgrounds and the Gasworks Precinct, which we believe will deliver consistent growth and strong demand in the area for a sustained period.
According to the latest State Government estimates, the population of Newstead is projected to grow by more than 17,300 by 2036, translating to base level demand for more than 7,400 new dwellings.
Current Population 5,530
Persons per Household 2,34
Projected Population Increase 17,300 by 2036 (ABS)
Dwellings Required 7,400
Shortfall of Dwellings 4,900
Currently the volume of new supply earmarked for the area sits at 2,484 dwellings, which leaves a supply shortfall of 4,900 dwellings.
Status Projects Units
Possible 9 1,486
Firm 5 998
Total 14 2,484
Suburbs in over supply
Fortitude Valley and Newstead have the right combination of statistical and fundamental indicators to give us confidence in their prospects. Contrast that situation with what has taken place in the Docklands precinct in Melbourne and you’ll see the difference between a sound supply/demand equation and a poor one.
Docklands units (Melbourne)
Simply put, Docklands units are suffering from chronic oversupply and should be avoided for the short to medium term. They have a relatively high vendor discounting rate, high number of days on the market, high vacancy rates, low search interest and relatively low rental yields.
Vendor Discounting Rate 7%*
Days on Market 157
Stock on Market 1.80%*
Vacancy Rates 4.27%
Online Search Interest 27 (Realestate.com.au)
Rental Yields 4.72%
The Docklands story is one of falling population projections at a time of high building activity, creating significant over supply. The number of units approved (and the height of those developments) has significantly outpaced new residents moving in to the area. In 2007 projections were for 20,000 residents by 2020. Within a year this was revised down to 17,000 residents and falling.
This in turn created an investor rebellion; investors sought other opportunities, which lead to softening demand and downwards pressure on prices and rental yields. Residents, too, prefer to live in areas that are ‘validated’ by prevailing demand, particularly in CBD locations, and this was lacking in Docklands. Finally, with falling population projections, businesses that would otherwise have taken up retail and commercial tenancies have been put off, resulting in falling commercial rents and fewer jobs in the immediate area.
Current Population 8,350
Persons per Household 1.9
Projected Population Increase 16,682 by 2031 (ID Consulting Projections)
Current dwellings 13,187 (Your Price Guide)
Dwellings Required 6,940
Oversupply of Dwellings 6,247
评论
感谢分享
评论
什么屁文
题目是“How we determine if an area is over or under supplied”关键是how. 但文中讲了一堆定义，什么Stock on Market 什么auction rate。这些指标和 “how” 没有任何关系。
然后讲了对人口的预测，得出结论是一堆布里斯班公寓密集开发区undersupply。中介老喜欢拿人口增长说事。其实我看是因为公寓建的多了，人口才增长的。中介喜欢理解成人口增长所以公寓有市场。我看公寓增速和人口增速谁快还没个准呢，分分钟公寓增速就超过人口增速，oversupply。
咋看咋是中介软文。
评论
2014转的一篇文章，当时来看是有道理的，那些分析指标就是一些评判标准，应该来说是这里鬼佬投资课程上普通都会提到的。当然，旧文不构成现在投资意见。另外，最关键的是你的property是否值这个价，这个功夫是需要自己去下的。
评论
谢谢楼主分享
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valley 和 newstead 还undersupply，，，
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valley 和 newstead 还undersupply，，，
评论
现在肯定是过剩了
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