http://www.afr.com/real-estate/s ... 017-20161102-gsg7ti
如果再降息0.25% 悉尼或上涨18%, 不降息涨16%
by Su-Lin Tan
Wealthy owner-occupiers will reignite the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets next year sending the two markets back to double-digit growth, according to leading analyst SQM Research's Louis Christopher.
Mr Christopher, who accurately predicated the boom in 2012 and this year price rises, predicated in his latest Boom & Bust Report that Sydney's house prices could rise by 18 per cent next year and Melbourne by 17 per cent if the cash rate is cut by another 0.25 per cent by the middle of the year.
Even if the Reserve Bank does not cut the cash rate any further, Sydney prices could still rise by 16 per cent and Melbourne by 15 per cent if the Australian economy remained unchanged.
No relief in sight for first home buyers
There would be no relief for first home buyers because the lower end of the predictions for the two cities would still be about 8 per cent.
While it was investors who charged up the markets with a 20 per cent growth in 2013 and and 2014, this time it would be home owners who would be responsible for the housing markets' second wind.
"In my opinion, the RBA will need the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to rein in credit lending once again, or lift interest rates, or do both, and they need to take action sooner rather than later," Mr Christopher said.
While APRA had successfully doused investor activity after capping banks' investor lending at 10 per cent, owner-occupier lending was harder to slow down.
"Affluent areas tend to be driven by the prosperity of local economy. And right now, both Sydney and Melbourne have the fastest growing economies in the nation," he said.
"APRA's actions last year to rein in housing investment credit growth worked. [But] tapping on APRA's shoulders once again could be a little more complicated this time around as it will need to involve restricting owner-occupied credit growth – something which the banks will be more reluctant to mess with."
Mixed outlook elsewhere
Brisbane and Hobart's house prices were also expected to rise to 8 per cent, and even Hobart would see a 12 per cent boom, assuming a rate cut.
Perth and Darwin would be the only cities with house price falls of up to 9 per cent. Both cities would definitely see falls of up to at least 2 per cent.
Mr Christopher also forecast an oversupply of new homes in 2017 and 2018, the worse being Brisbane followed by Sydney and Melbourne.
Overall, the Australian housing market remained overvalued and should the cash rate rise to 2.5 per cent, there could be housing downturn, Mr Christopher warned.
"Serviceability is running at just above longer term averages. It's the only indicator right now that suggests there won't be an immediate downturn, unless servicing levels get beyond 10 per cent of incomes. What type of cash rate would it take to get to beyond 10 per cent? We calculate a cash rate of 2.5 per cent.
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求贴全文，付费的看不到...
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不会降息了
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文章说不降息也要涨16%
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政府很快要出手了
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的确需要控制一下了，连续几年涨的太快。首置业基本没希望了。
专家建议政府或者升息，或者控制贷款。
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好大胆的预测
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这些预测，感觉都得反着看。
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其他国际大城市的房价也有考虑首业吗？比如伦敦纽约温哥华啥的，上海北京就不提了，
为啥澳洲非得在两个大城市考虑首业，除了热门地区，很多差一点的区的房价也不高吧
纯讨论一下
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即使现在这样的利息稳定3-5年，房价也会一直涨的。悉尼房产出租回报率高，加上利息低，有收入的人都会去考虑买房
有些区entry level的house已经是2.5M，说给国内同学听，都说便宜，在国内也就能买个大一点的三居室
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说是这么说，但国内也就三个城市的某些人有能力有心这样做吧。
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我觉得很小可能能涨18%, 在最火的2014-2015 也就是13%左右。今后两年公寓市场会很平静
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房价平均2万的城市，别墅是3千万一套，在那三个城市更是天价。国内人眼里，别墅始终是稀缺资源吧。
还好现在对海外人士限购加上高印花税，不然澳洲房产还真不知会怎么样的大泡泡。
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你不看看这三个城市人口基数有多大，一个城市就能抵土澳一国的人口，更不用说比悉尼了。那个"某些人"在三个城市中的比例再低放到这里也是不小的冲击。
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我们区去年70-75万的两房unit，今年普遍都80-90。但是出房非常非常少，同时挂着的不超过5套，经常是1-2套。
新房也在建，然而最便宜的两房面积小的可怜，也要1.2M起。
还是分地点吧，东区北区的一些surburb，房源实在太少。
好街上的house出来price guide 2.5M，已经被中介形容成entry level
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明年一定加息。通货膨胀已经起来了。大宗商品早就大幅反弹了。美国也马上要加息了。澳洲房价明年不跌已经不错了。搞不好会下跌5%
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5%是不是太保守了
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作者看来是华人，说不定还是常混地产投资版的网友呢。
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这么肯定，就应该囤着待涨。
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周末赶紧去买几套压压惊
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同样是SQM的报告，挺会玩的！
http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/australias-property-market-is-overvalued-and-teetering-on-the-edge-of-a-dangerous-bubble/news-story/057960a9f86cf064eca02f9a1f86eb88
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如果收緊貸款，是不是更加應該儘快買？原因：就算房價真的跌5%，但貸款收緊了,首置還是貸不了款，買不了吖。
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是这样，08年虽然房价大跌，但银行贷款也收紧厉害，根本贷不出款。
房子只要持有，早晚是会涨的
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真的假的，那我明年Settle的楼花不用担心估不到合同价了
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should say 涨 81% instead of 18%
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你想买房的心情可以理解，但不能无视RBA多次关于未来降息的暗示吧
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这个预测有点猛啊
拭目以待吧
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