温哥华的房地产市场终于降温了。
MLS （房地产中介业者公用的买卖数据库）的房源数据显示，8月1日至14日，西温哥华地区的住房销售量暴跌了94%。加拿大房地产协会的数据显示，七月份加拿大全国范围内的房地产销量连续第三个月保持下降，其中尤以大温哥华地区和菲沙河谷地区的下降最为显著。
温哥华市场降温的原因是当地从8月开始执行的针对海外购房者的额外征税政策。
7月25日，温哥华卑诗省（British Columbia）宣布，从8月2日起，将向海外房地产投资者征收15%的额外房屋转让税。
卑 诗省居民购买房屋时，房价的前20万加元（约100万元）要缴1%的转让税，20万加元至200万加元（约1009万元）部分要缴2%的转让税，超过 200万加元部分的税率是3%。而在新政实施之后，外国买家若以200万加元购买一间房屋，就要多缴税款30万加元（约151万元）。
在海外投资者中，中国买家被认为是推高温哥华房价的推手。因此这一方案也被视为和中国买家撕破脸的方案。
此前加拿大国家银行金融分析师彼得?劳特利奇在一份报告中称，中国买家在2015年花费127亿加元（约641亿元）在温哥华购置房产，占当地房产销售总额的33%。
加拿大按揭和住房公司总裁Evan Siddall曾表示，在西温哥华三个社区卖出的豪华住宅中，约三分之二的买家是中国人名字。
在过去的一年中，温哥华的房价在持续上涨。
8月12日公布的加拿大房价指数显示，7月份全国房价比6月上涨2%，涨幅最明显的仍然是四大都市区，维多利亚以涨幅3.8%独占鳌头，多伦多房价涨幅3.1%、温哥华房价涨幅2.3%、汉密尔顿涨幅2.4%。
其中，温哥华7月房价已经连续第18个月未出现下降，7月环比上升2.3%。
在莱坊Knight Frank公布的全球37座主要城市今年二季度房地产市场报告中，温哥华以36.4%的年涨幅领先其他城市，成为2015年6月到2016年6月间房价上涨最快的城市。
莱坊研究部资深分析师Taimur Khan指出，供应有限成为温哥华高端住宅市场房价大幅上升的主要原因。如今的供应量为25年的新低，而需求量却一直上涨，因此对房价的上涨构成压力。再者，低利率降低了借贷成本，也加剧了房价增长。
在这样的背景下，当地政府认为温哥华楼市的房价已经到了非理性的状况。
加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省省长Christy Clark指出，有一些来自海外、非常富裕的投资者进入了温哥华房地产市场，他们推高了本地房屋价格。对于政府来说，需要保证本地居民可以负担得起房价，首先需要做的就是让那些海外投资者购买房屋要比当地人困难一些。
新规生效后，温哥华楼市骤然变冷，市场成交量急剧下滑，海外投资者选择放弃购房，而不是缴纳税款。
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真的假的？
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Evidence from realtors and MLS data is showing the Vancouver real estate market is in the midst of a major slowdown, with prices dropping and sales plummeting, but some experts say it’s too soon to tell.
While August is typically one of the slowest months for real estate transactions, MLS sales data from the first two weeks of the month shows what many have been hoping for during the past few years of escalating prices.
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Global News
There were only three home sales in West Vancouver between Aug. 1 and 14 this year, compared to 52 during the same period last year. That’s a decrease of 94 per cent.
The numbers come from long-time realtor Brent Eilers, who’s been tracking the data with the same system since he joined the business in 1983. He studied MLS listings to count how many homes were sold so far this month.
“It’s pretty tough to go from 52 to three and pretend things are fine,” said Eilers. “That is a pattern that can’t go ignored.”
Eilers says he’s been warning of a real estate slowdown for at least a year due to the region’s unsustainable and unsupportable prices. West Vancouver, where he does a large part of his business, had a benchmark detached home price of almost $3.4 million in July according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).
The median household income in the region was $84,345 in 2011, according to the District of West Vancouver.
“The market in West Van is up 450 per cent since 2001. So is everyone making 600 per cent more income than they were so they can pay their taxes and buy their houses? Of course not. So how has this inflation been financed? By offshore money and record debt.”
And while Eilers says the slowdown is at least partly due to the implementation of the Metro Vancouver foreign buyer tax on July 25, which has caused a firestorm of anecdotal evidence saying it has killed the housing market, he adds sales were dropping even before the tax.
According to the data, July was another slow month in West Vancouver with only 44 sales, down from 80 in 2015. June saw 74 sales, also down from 102 the year before.
The pattern has left the market “devastated” according to Eilers.
But experts are warning that two weeks of data isn’t enough to ring the alarm bells.
Andy Yan, acting director of The City Program at Simon Fraser University, says we need more time.
“It’s really hard to say if it’s just cooling off. It could be that everybody who could or would buy at those really high prices a couple months ago are now already in, and now we just really see how the market is retracting itself,” he said.
Prices going down
Earlier this month, the REBGV released its statistics for the month of July, saying the data showed the market had slowed down to “normal levels.” But one thing missing from the data was evidence of any price decrease. Fortunately for buyers, real-time data proves otherwise.
READ MORE: Vancouver real estate market slows in July to “normal” levels
Zolo, a Canadian real estate brokerage, keeps track of MLS home sales in real time and reports prices as an average rather than the “benchmark price” used by the REBGV.
It currently shows a major correction underway in most Metro Vancouver markets.
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According to the website, the city of Vancouver currently has an average home price of $1.1 million, down 20.7 per cent over the last 28 days and down 24.5 per cent over the last three months.
The average detached home is $2.6 million, down seven per cent compared to three months ago.
Richmond is no different. Zolo CEO Barry Allen says the market in Richmond has “gone off a cliff” with the average home now priced at $779,000, down 20.7 per cent from three months ago and 17.6 per cent from last month. Detached homes in Richmond took the hardest hit compared to other markets with a 10 per cent price correction over the last three months down to $1.7 million.
North Vancouver detached homes fell 10 per cent in price in three months down to $1.8 million. Their average home price for all properties fell 17.3 per cent in that time period to $1 million.
It’s more of the same in Burnaby and Surrey.
GALLERY: See just how much prices have dropped in key Metro Vancouver markets:
vancouver data
west van data
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However tantalizing the drop in price may be, economists and experts warn that using averages in real estate prices is inherently problematic.
“That’s a really bad idea,” said UBC economist Tsur Somerville, who adds that the drop in average prices may be due to a drop in high-end home sales.
“Averages are always tricky to use, because when you have sales at the high end they have a way of skewing the value of homes that are sold, and that’s really particularly the case in Vancouver,” said Yan.
Allen says their data showed the market had already started to turn before the foreign buyer tax.
“It’s only slowing down at the top where there is uncertainty,” he said.
And that uncertainty is “diabolically dangerous,” according to Eilers, who has sold real estate during four different correction periods in Vancouver.
“When the market changes, it typically changes over night or within a couple of weeks, but it often takes two to three months for everybody to figure it out. That’s why it can be so scary,” he said.
A strong price correction often takes months to appear because sellers are unwilling to lower their prices until they have to.
According to the realtor, often sellers have their houses appraised months before they put them on the market, meaning in the climate we are currently witnessing, sellers are expecting to list their homes at record-high prices, even though the number of sales and listings indicate prices should be lowering.
“Typically what happens when the market starts to flip is all the buyers go into hibernation and all the listings come on. What are the odds on getting that seller to price his home at a fraction of where the market is now? It’s zero,” Eilers said.
What causes prices to fall is “urgency, anxiety, and fear,” according Eilers. He says a climate of financial overexposure, a treadmill of buying and selling and flipping homes, owning multiple properties, and buying before selling will test how long sellers can hold on without selling in desperation.
He points to the 1980 housing crash that dropped prices by 40 to 60 per cent within a year and took six years to recover.
“So your $2 million house became $800,000 in five months. There’s a lot of economists and a lot of wise people that believe that our financial structure is much closer to that structure from a corrections point of view,” Eilers explained.
The Bank of Canada recently warned that those invested in the Vancouver housing market are particularly vulnerable to a price correction due to the large share of “highly indebted households.”
And the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation increased Vancouver’s risk rating to “high,” due to “evidence of problematic conditions” including price acceleration and overvaluation.
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还是那句话，在不久的一万年后悉尼房子也会暴跌
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这对澳洲房东是好事，否则政府一直SB的觉得无论怎么对海外买家（尤其华人）加税，海外买家都会买单，加拿大给土澳政府敲响了警钟，别做梦了，再搞华客就是搞你们自己了
从现在开始，政策制定者们不会再贸然针对海外买家了
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有道理
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rba不会让房价下跌的
必须上涨
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这样澳洲就不会有这种政策了
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