No point delaying RBA rate cut if case stacks up
Arguments in favour of an official interest cut next Tuesday include another downward shift in the terms of trade in the last quarter, iron ore back to less than $US50 a tonne for the first time since July, increased signs of a slowing housing market, and a perceived need to offset some of October's big-bank mortgage rate hikes.
Arguments in favour of an official interest cut next Tuesday include another downward shift in the terms of trade in the last quarter, iron ore back to less than $US50 a tonne for the first time since July, increased signs of a slowing housing market, and a perceived need to offset some of October's big-bank mortgage rate hikes. Robert Shakespeare
The Reserve Bank of Australia is weighing up whether to deploy its dwindling interest-rate ammunition.
Arguments in favour of pulling the trigger on an official interest cut next Tuesday include another downward shift in the terms of trade in the last quarter, iron ore back to less than $US50 a tonne for the first time since July, increased signs of a slowing housing market, and a perceived need to offset some of October's big-bank mortgage rate hikes.
On the domestic front, the most important swing factor for governor Glenn Stevens and his board might turn out to be a desire to give consumers an end-of-year boost. In which case, with the Christmas spending season less than four weeks away, the board will be acutely aware that any official rate cut would take up to a month for commercial banks to pass on to customers.
In other words, if the central bank thinks there is a case for a move, there's little point waiting until December, when a reduction would really only boost household cash flow as people head off into the long summer break.
That would potentially make it a wasted cut, something the central bank can ill-afford, given the cash rate is already at a record low 2 per cent.
Perhaps even more significant are the global realities bearing down on the central bank's thinking.
Global growth is weakening, a range of forecasts in recent weeks show, ranging from the International Monetary Fund to the Reserve Bank's own experts.
Much-needed shock absorber
The dollar, at last fulfilling its role as a much-needed shock absorber for the economy, could be pushed up by what might turn out to be another flood of global quantitative easing and interest rate cuts.
"The European Central Bank has pre-announced [more easing], there's a risk throughout the rest of east-Asia that you'll get a wave of easing, and in New Zealand it's clear they're steeling themselves to ease as well," says Goldman Sachs senior economist Tim Toohey, who has a longstanding prediction that the Reserve Bank cash rate will be cut to 1.75 per cent on Tuesday.
The need to keep the Australian dollar in the low US70¢ range has only intensified in recent weeks, with commodity prices sliding again. Figures out Thursday showed the terms of trade probably slipped another 1.4 per cent in the September quarter. They are now about 30 per cent below their 2011 peak, none of which will be welcome news in the revenue-constrained federal government, which is preparing for the mid-year budget update in December.
"In the absence of any new source of growth coming in the next six months, there's not enough stimulus," Mr Toohey said.
He believes the Reserve Bank will acknowledge next week the growing impact of drought and waning dwelling investment when it updates its quarterly forecasts.
"Growth is materially below potential, and that's their mandate," he told The Australian Financial Review. "It's not house prices or worrying about events that may or may not happen."
Domestic demand is weak
Expectations for a rate cut next week surged to 52 per cent from less than 30 per cent after the September quarter inflation data showed headline consumer prices rose just 1.5 per cent, clear evidence that domestic demand is weak.
Mr Toohey challenged analysts who believe the slide in the inflation rate, which has averaged 1.5 per cent for the past four quarters, is due to "one-off factors" that will reverse soon.
"Inflation is not only low, it's incredibly low," he said.
More items from the benchmark consumer price basket are rising slower than the Reserve Bank's 2 to 3 per cent range than those rising at a faster rate.
"Dispersion measures of the CPI basket, where you look at the number of items that are either above or below the mid-point of the target band, show you have to go back to 1995 to find such unified weakness in inflationary pressures," Mr Toohey said.
"This is not just one or two things holding down the inflation number, this is broad-based."
Same deflationary pressures
Asked whether this means Australia is now vulnerable to the same deflationary pressures that have bedevilled other advanced economies over the past seven years since the 2008 global financial crisis, Mr Toohey said he doubted the Reserve Bank saw it as "so low it's problematic".
"But there's been a vein of research that shows when you get into these low-inflation environments it's very hard to regenerate wage and inflation expectations," he said.
"And that can be problematic, in that people shift their spending and investment decisions. If you've been so far below the headline target for 12 months, you wouldn't want that to persist."
While there are huge risks associated with another interest rate cut – not least from a financial stability point of view – the Reserve Bank probably sees the case for a cut.
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Tab 赔率多少？
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1.07
https://m.sportsbet.com.au/#bett ... -up-or-down-2199249
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房价要涨
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1.07 说不准真的降息了
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感觉后面降息的空间不大了
且降且珍惜吧
有个人病入膏荒了，需要靠药维持。
医生说只有两粒药了，再给你吃一粒，就只剩一粒了。
病人该高兴呢，还是高兴呢。
所以很多消息，看上去是好消息，其实市场有不同的解读。
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新闻最终要的就是标题，那是作者对内容的高度总结。
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如果这次不降利息
我的王字倒着写
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利好都出尽了。计算降息房价也不会涨了。
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澳币继续下跌，很多目前在澳洲的海外建筑工人都要离开，势必新一轮的成本上涨。
建筑成本上涨 -> 新屋价格上涨 -> 地价上涨 -> 二手房上涨
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最关键是降息银行也不会跟着降了，银行涨息还来不及
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归根结底，澳洲人太懒，没人愿意干活
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降0.5%
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散户心态，买前拼命等调整，买后感觉就被套，套后拼命找利好，疑惑失望砍一刀，抛后涨停泪两行。
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首先，银行肯定会部分跟。
其次，现在是澳币下跌引起的房价上涨，如果以美元结算的话可能根本没涨。悉尼毕竟是国际城市
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拭目以待
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Everyone wants to play Santa
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银行撑死跟一部分
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银行也玩起超市的招数，先涨价，再打折。
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降还是不降？这是个问题
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出处呢？
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AFR
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美联储年底加息也是板上钉钉，RBA即便降息，澳洲银行的融资成本却是不降反升，降息除了继续打压澳币，看不出别的好处
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思路要理顺，既然如此就用手里的工具做空澳元。房子会继续涨，但是澳元可以继续跌嘛，又不冲突，是不是。
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好押韵啊。哈哈
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做空澳元，那就应该卖掉澳币资产，包括房子
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流言飞来飞去
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一语惊醒梦中人啊
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