Sydney tipped to be major RMB trading hub
NSW Premier Mike Baird will have discussions about Sydney becoming one of the world's key offshore trading centres for the yuan during his visit to China this week.
NSW Premier Mike Baird will have discussions about Sydney becoming one of the world's key offshore trading centres for the yuan during his visit to China this week. Edwina Pickles
by Lisa Murray and Angus Grigg
Half of Australia's iron ore and coal exports could be priced in yuan within the next five years, making Sydney one of the world's key offshore trading centres for the Chinese currency, according to the author of a report commissioned by the NSW government.
Less than 1 per cent of Australian trade with China is currently settled in yuan, largely because commodity exports are mostly priced and traded in US dollars. However, Geoff Weir, who has worked at both the Australian Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia, believes that will change "dramatically" over the next five years.
"Within three to five years we will see commodities like iron ore and coal heavily traded in yuan," he told The Australian Financial Review, ahead of the release of the report on Wednesday, which will form the backbone of NSW Premier Mike Baird's discussions on the trading hub during his visit to China this week.
"In five years 50 per cent of the commodities trade could be in yuan," he said. While this is Mr Weir's own rough estimate and is not included in the report, he believes the ramp-up will be rapid once the yuan becomes more liquid and Chinese importers start offering Australian resources companies a price advantage to trade in Chinese currency.
The report, which was co-authored by Australian National University finance professor Kathy Walsh, says for Chinese importers "the incentive is clear".
For example, a Chinese steel producer that is paying for its commodity inputs in US dollars, but selling steel in yuan, is hit with the substantial cost of hedging against its currency exposure. That cost is generally higher in China than offshore. That steel company could offer a higher price to an Australian exporter to do the trade in yuan.
Hard not to follow
If the price advantage is less than it costs the steel company to hedge the foreign exchange exposure in China but more than the offshore cost of hedging for the commodity exporter, "both parties gain".
"Once one company goes down that path and gets a price advantage and improved market access, it will be very hard for the others not to follow," said Mr Weir, who previously worked as a hedge fund strategist for BT Funds Management, Moore Capital and JBWere. He is now a consultant.
China is already preparing for the shift away from US dollar pricing by building up liquid yuan-denominated futures contracts so that both importers and producers will be able to hedge their exposure to future commodity price movements.
Since the iron ore futures contract on the Dalian exchange started trading in October 2013, its trading volumes have risen by 294 per cent.
The report predicts the change in the way global commodities trade is financed will provide a significant boost to Sydney's importance as an offshore yuan trading hub and lead to an increase in transactional banking business for Australian firms.
It also says there is scope for Australian fund managers to tap into China's vast pool of savings. Australia is already a big recipient of direct investment flows and if Australian funds management firms can overcome the challenges of brand recognition and distribution access to the Chinese market, those flows might diversify into portfolio investment.
Extensive links
"Australia has considerable expertise in two asset classes of growing interest to Chinese institutional investors, namely global real estate and global infrastructure funds," the report says.
At the forefront of the Australian push into the Chinese funds management market is AMP Capital which went into partnership with local insurance company China Life in late 2013. It set up a joint-venture company, which is 15 per cent owned by AMP and has 70 billion yuan ($15.3 billion) under management.
There are now 19 offshore yuan trading centres but Mr Weir believes Sydney's hub could potentially be counted among the most successful because of the trade-related finance and funds management opportunities. Other centres aside from Hong Kong that are currently doing well include Singapore, which has extensive links with China and south-east Asia and Luxembourg, which is home to the European headquarters for some major Chinese banks.
Mr Weir said Australian policymakers need to provide greater tax certainty for alternative collective investment vehicles that can be used to sell funds management products into China and must also look at relaxing the tough capital requirements which relate to joint-venture investments.
评论
以后买房可以直接付RMB？
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不觉得有什么多大影响
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楼主你以后就写个标题就好了不用再贴内容了
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楼主买完房整个人都不好了。人生又不是只有房价涨房价跌
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搁谁花了140多万当了接盘大侠人都不会很好
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房价要涨。
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good
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估计楼主一口气搞了十套，已经慌了
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你认识我？
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1.4就这样了，那最近12-18个月里大量1.5-2.5的买家不是不活了
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不认识，不过都是屌丝。唯一的区别是你有十套，我只有一套
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楼主，你确信不是中介？
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房价要涨
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哈哈，卡老精辟。
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楼主能说一下买在那个区了吗？
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没事就号外的都是耍流氓。
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West Ryde .楼主就是被论坛里的多军坑了，什么自住房价格不重要，什么房价断崖上涨，什么大漏快来捡。要么是中介，要么是急着出货
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离岸中心又如何？屁民汇钱照样管制，人家那是国企玩的。
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澳洲这种孤立海外的大岛搞金融中心是在做梦
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就当学英语，仔细看了遍，
具有深远意义。
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我咋记得楼主预算是200万呢，怎么可能只买140万的房子？
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接盘侠再来个420万买三套压压惊，就可以治愈了
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部分国人的劣根性，就是自己得了病，就巴不得周遭所有人都得病。
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话说west ryde已经跌了吗？
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直接说：房价要涨，就好了，不用这么含蓄
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楼主让我想起了车版的那个A3君。
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你是楼主的 “导师” 吗？
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