Sydney house price growth to slump next year, NAB says
The outlook for Sydney house prices is darkening, the latest NAB Residential Property Survey shows.
The outlook for Sydney house prices is darkening, the latest NAB Residential Property Survey shows. Anna Kucera
House-price growth in Sydney will hit the brakes even harder than expected next year, as slow income growth and tighter credit to investors bite, the latest National Australia Bank Residential Property Survey shows.
Faster than expected price growth in the two largest cities will be followed by a steeper downturn next year, the bank said.
"The story is all about Sydney and Melbourne," NAB Group chief economist Alan Oster said.
"In our forecast, we've ramped up our numbers for 2015 because Sydney and Melbourne are so stoked, and basically lowered them for next year."
The report, which updates NAB's previous survey in June, also shows tighter credit rules have overtaken affordability as the biggest constraint on new housing development, echoing the findings of a separate industry survey this week.
Sydney has the biggest proportion of investor activity in the residential housing market of any city in the country.
Credit constraint
"Tight credit has re-emerged as the biggest (and growing) constraint for new housing development, led by NSW, WA and Victoria," the report said.
"Housing affordability (especially in Victoria & NSW) and construction costs (mainly Victoria, SA/NT & Qld) are the next biggest constraints, with the level of concern also somewhat higher than in the second quarter."
NAB has raised its prediction for price growth nationally this calendar year to 9.1 per cent from from 6.1 per cent just three months ago.
This reflects its revision of Sydney prices to 14.6 per cent this year, from 10.2 per cent, and Melbourne to a much larger 15.2 per cent from 6.5 per cent for this year.
But it has lowered its expectations for national price growth next calendar to 2.3 per cent from 6.1 per cent, cutting its Sydney expectations to 1.2 per cent from 3.9 per cent. Melbourne is little changed at 3 per cent compared with a predicted 3.1 per cent in June.
The report also showed foreign buyers accounted for 19 per cent of all new apartment sales and 14.9 per cent of all new house sales in the September quarter.
Foreign investors continue to play a far bigger role in Victoria than any other state, accounting for 28.5 per cent of total demand in the new apartment market and 26 per cent of new houses, up from 16.7 per cent in the June quarter.
"These ratios were significantly higher in Victoria, where foreign buyers accounted for around one in five of all established apartment sales and just over one in six houses", Mr Oster said.
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认命吧，这波上涨行情结束了。
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1.2%还不如通胀，利息都要4.1%。大家散了吧
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因为利率在低位
盘整是大概率事件
但是盘整时间过长，加息通道开启，就不好说了
建议大家涨5%的房租，做下压力测试
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新闻最重要的是标题，那是作者对文章做出的高度总结：
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楼主买了房才来做功课，脑补？
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利息降, 澳元跌, 建材涨, 房价要跌很难.
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房价还会涨？
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房租会上涨 其实日子更难过 前面欠的后面开始要还了
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扛不住就赶紧出货 才知道空军高官都是高手
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这14.6%，年初涨的不止这些吧？下半年没空间了。
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再賣一套压压驚！
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毛新宇这时会跳出来说：若按美元计，房价其实腰斩，啊不，踝斩了。^_^
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读文章不仔细啊
This reflects its revision of Sydney prices to 14.6 per cent this year, from 10.2 per cent, and Melbourne to a much larger 15.2 per cent from 6.5 per cent for this year.
找你的逻辑，接下去两个月要大涨了，才能从10.2%变成14.6%啊
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LZ 你先说说自己相信不？买房子不是买菜，尤其对一个屌丝来说，买之前不想清楚，买了以后才到处找信心。
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关注
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真会说废话，今年都马上结束了，已经涨了15%了好么，也就是说最后俩月回调1%
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如果涨1.2%，你那套duplex什么时候能回本？
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房产投资者一般不这么算。
100万房子， 80万贷款。 80 X 5% = 4 万 的利息， 房租： 400 周 x 50 周 = 2 万
4万-2万= 2万 的支出。 如果房价涨2%， 就可以视为不赔本， 一般的房产投资者都是在三年后盖了出货。 相信那时行情肯定要涨的。
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一套房子就能闹成这样，好屌。
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你算上印花税中介费等，也没什么赚头啊。。。
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假定买房需要200w，我贷款160w，本金40w，利息4.2，澳元长期看空。我用40w本金合计190w人民币，然后我把160w澳币丢国内吃理财。4.6不高。每年我还赚0.4的差价，澳元如果下跌，我澳元绝对值收益就越高。当然咯，不是什么人都有全款买房和这么多的现金。----做梦咯。
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一个大的假如就是汇率按照你设想的走。
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我现在就是这么干的！坚定觉得澳元一定会下跌。天朝的全球化步伐不会停止。其实很难分析啦，自己做自己的投资。不破产就好。
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