Is Australian property at an inflection point?
http://www.ig.com/au/australian-property-at-an-inflection-point?CHID=3
It’s a key moment for Australia as an inflection point in the property market becomes increasingly apparent.
- by Angus Nicholson
Malcolm Turnbull has assumed the Prime Ministership and announced a major overhaul of cabinet ministers, but signs are starting to emerge that the housing market may have reached its top.
National auction clearance rates are set to see their lowest month in three years, and most significantly auction clearance rates in the red-hot Sydney and Melbourne property markets are steadily easing as well. The auction clearance rate could well drop below 70% in October.
This is the steady effect of new macroprudential regulations. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has increased the amount of capital the banks are required to hold against residential mortgage exposures, and capped the annual growth allowed in investor loans at 10%.
Investor loan growth has already begun to slow, and these policies are clearly beginning to have an effect. But the other major development in the past couple of weeks has been the renewed clampdown on capital flight by the Chinese government.
China’s stock market crash and unexpected currency devaluation prompted a significant increase in capital flight. In response, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) imposed a 20% reserve requirement on Chinese financial institutions’ currency forward sales on 8 September, and exhorted them to closely investigate their currency businesses.
Previously, it was quite common for Chinese to bypass the US$50,000 annual currency exchange restriction by pooling together a number of family members’ limits in order to get a large sum of money out of the country. This popular method has also been sternly cracked down on as well.
It does seem fairly significant that these regulations corresponded with a slowdown in Australian property clearance rates. Foreign investors are known to account for 40% of off-plan purchases for major apartment developments.
In any case, a slowdown in the Australian property market has been a long time coming. Property has been one of the major forces supporting the economy as mining investment steadily dried up alongside the collapse in the global commodities market. However, rising property prices have not been accompanied by similar increases in income growth. Surging population growth in Australia, averaging 1.8% per year between 2007 and 2013, also supported strength in the housing market. However, net migration has noticeably begun to slow down over the past year.
With this avenue for growth steadily slowing, the risks of a recession in Australia in 2016 have picked up dramatically. We are unlikely to see a US-style housing crash, but certainly a slowdown is in store. While Malcolm Turnbull may have wrested the Prime Ministership away from Tony Abbott, he could have done so during the most difficult period for the Australian economy since 1991 – dubbed then by Paul Keating as “the recession we had to have.”
If property data continues to provide further evidence of a property slowdown, then the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates down to 1.75% or even 1.5% within the next twelve months increases dramatically. Currently, the bond market probability for an RBA rate cut by December sits at 37%, dropping from 42% prior to Glenn Stevens’s speech on Friday 18 September.
The threats to the Australian economy over the next couple of months are likely to increasingly weigh on the minds of investors. The Big Four banking stocks – the darlings of self-managed super fund proprietors – are significantly exposed to the risk of a downturn in the Australian economy and particularly the property sector. These stocks have been closely hugged by many investors because of their excellent performance over the past couple of years and their continuing high yields, but the outlook for their stock prices is likely to cancel out any potential yield benefits in the event of a property downturn.
If the banks do start to see further declines as new capital requirements and a slowing property market start to weigh on their stock prices, this would severely impact the performance of the overall index. The outlook for the materials and energy sectors over the next few months looks no better – global growth continues to slow and excess supply is yet to leave the markets.
With the outlook for financials, materials and the energy sector all fairly negative over the next few months, we’re unlikely to see the ASX returning to its April/May highs just below the 6000 mark, and indeed a protracted break below 5000 could be in the offing.
Global investor sentiment was dinted by the Fed leaving rates on hold as global market volatility and lingering weakness in the US economy convinced them to stay their hand. December is now the most likely date for the fed to raise rates this year, but many believe they could be forced to wait until 2016 in the wake of last week’s decision, adding to the general sense of pessimism about the global economy.
The main bright spot for the ASX at the moment is the prospect of further mergers and acquisitions. But a general sense of pessimism is likely to continue until some decent data on the Chinese economy starts to filter through.
The China Beige Book report just came out, stating that negativity around the Chinese economy has been overdone and is divorced from the facts. The Chinese services sector, which accounts for over half the economy, continues to show improvement in sales, pricing, volumes and capital expenditure based on their survey data. This is further supported by strong retail sales numbers and improving house price data.
With temporary disruptions to China’s output data dissipating over the coming months and stepped-up demands for further fiscal spending, there is some potential salve for global markets due in the coming months as China steps investment in an attempt to achieve its 7% growth target. And hopefully some positive news could help stem some of the growing concerns over the Australian economy.
评论
对于持有四大行股票的朋友请小心操作
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再等3个月，圣诞后，该准备大选的时候，就该清楚的看清趋势了。大选年，房价都低啊，投资客们，准备好钱，明年抄底吧。
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再看天朝政府，狂印rmb，恨不得房价冲到月球上。
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要暴跌 准备抄底2e
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知道太多
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是不是因为换总理了呀？
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没人翻译吗
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现金为王？高杠杆借债投资者将破产
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同问
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大家凑合着看吧。
糖包担任总理后，宣布内阁部长进行大修。现有迹象显现住房市场可能已经达到了最高。
拍卖清盘率被设定为看到自己每月最低三年，最显著拍卖清盘率在炽热的悉尼和墨尔本的房地产市场正在逐步缓解，以及。拍卖清除率很可能低于70％，十月份。
这是新的宏观审慎法规的稳定作用。澳大利亚审慎监管局（APRA）已增加资本的银行须持有对个人住房抵押贷款风险暴露的量，上限为10％，允许投资者贷款的年增长率。
投资房贷款增长已经开始放缓，而这些政策显然开始产生效果。但在过去几周的其他主要发展已经对资本外逃再度压制了中国政府。
中国的股市暴跌和意想不到的货币贬值促使资本外逃显著增加。对此，国家外汇管理局（SAFE）强加给中国金融机构的外汇远期销售9月8日20％的存款准备金，并叮嘱他们密切观察本国货币业务。
此前，这是很常见的中国人汇集在一起的一些家庭成员的限制，以获得一大笔资金走出国门绕过US $ 50,000个年度货币兑换的限制。这种流行的方法也被严厉打击，以及。
它似乎相当显著，这些规定与对应放缓，澳大利亚房地产清除率。外国投资者被称为占计划外采购主要公寓发展的40％。
在任何情况下，放缓在澳大利亚房地产市场已经等了很久了。财产已被各大势力支持经济的矿业投资逐步枯竭一起，在全球大宗商品市场的崩溃之一。然而，房地产价格的上涨并未伴随着类似的增加收入的增长。风起云涌的人口增长在澳大利亚，2007年至2013年间平均每年1.8％，同时住房市场的支持力量。然而，净移民已明显开始放缓，在过去的一年。
通过这种途径稳步增长放缓，澳大利亚经济衰退在2016年的风险已经回升显着。我们不太可能看到美国式的住房崩溃，但肯定是放缓的商店。虽然特恩布尔可能已经夺取了总理职务远离艾伯特，他可以这样做，因为在1991年最困难的时期为澳大利亚经济 - 被称为然后通过基廷是“我们必须有经济衰退。”
如果房地产数据继续提供进一步的证据属性放缓，澳洲储备银行的（RBA）降息下降到1.75％，那么的可能性，甚至1.5％，在未来十二个月内急剧增加。目前，下调月的澳洲联储利率债券市场的概率坐在37％，从42％之前，格伦•史蒂文斯上周五9月18日的讲话下降。
在未来几个月内对澳大利亚经济的威胁很可能会越来越多地打压了投资者的头脑。四大银行股 - 的自我管理的超级基金业主宠儿 - 被显著暴露在澳大利亚经济低迷，特别是房地产行业的风险。这些股票已经被许多投资者一直密切拥抱，因为他们的出色表现，在过去几年和他们持续的高收益率，但其股价后市很可能抵消任何潜在的产量收益在属性低迷的情况下。
如果银行确实开始看到进一步下降为新的资本要求和减缓房地产市场开始打压其股价，这将严重影响整体指数的表现。为在未来数个月的材料和能源行业的前景看起来没有更好的 - 全球经济增长继续放缓，供应过剩尚未离开市场。
随着前景金融，材料和能源部门都相当负面的，在未来的几个月，我们就不可能看到ASX返回其四/五月高点下方6000关口，确实低于5000旷日持久的突破可能在酝酿之中。
全球投资者信心受到dinted美联储留下利率不变全球市场波动和徘徊的疲软美国经济说服他们留下他们的手。十二月现在是美联储今年加息最有可能的日期，但许多人认为，他们可能被迫要等到2016年在上周的决定之后，增加了悲观情绪对全球经济的一般意义。
主要亮点，为ASX此刻是进一步的兼并和收购的前景。但悲观的一般意义上很可能会继续下去，直到对中国经济的一些体面的数据开始过滤通过。
在中国褐皮书报告刚出来的时候，说明消极中国的经济形势已经过头了，并且脱离现实。中国的服务业占超过一半的经济，继续表现出改善销售，定价，数量和资本支出根据他们的调查数据。这是由强劲的零售销售数据和改善的房价数据进一步支持。
临时中断向中国的输出数据消散在未来几个月内，并为进一步的财政支出加紧需求，对于由于在未来几个月为中国步投资，企图实现其7％的增长目标全球市场一些潜在的药膏。并希望一些积极的消息可能有助于阻止一些在澳大利亚经济中越来越多的关注。
评论
翻译的很好
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