Housing market stuck in trough: survey Carolyn Cummins
April 17, 2012
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Sydney and Melbourne’s housing markets are at least two years away from shifting out of the current trough, but once the momentum starts, the rise will be strong, according to the 28th annual Australian Property Directions Survey.
Using the property clock system, whereby 12 noon to 6pm is a downswing, the data shows that the Sydney residential property market has shown little movement over the seven years that this data has been collected and is not seen as making significant progress over the next two years.
Respondents to the API Property Directions survey are property experts - valuers, funds managers, property analysts and property financiers - and are drawn from a range of about 30 organisations with national representation.
Advertisement: Story continues below The survey, which was released today, covers residential, commercial, retail and industrial property in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
According to the data, commercial property is still sought-after, while industrial property is sitting at about 7 o’clock or in the first stages of an upswing, thanks to the demand for warehouses from the e-commerce sector.
The API's NSW vice-president, Tyrone Hodge, said the survey showed that the housing markets in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne were seen as being stuck at or near the bottom of the property cycle with only small advances along the cycle predicted over the next two years.
‘‘In 2013, residential property is seen as having commenced the upswing in Sydney and Brisbane, but Melbourne is seen as remaining at the bottom of the cycle,’’ Mr Hodge said. ‘‘Affordibility remains the key issue in Sydney and until that improves, the sector is forecast to bump along the bottom.’'
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总结：爆涨前的平静
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上次CBA的茶话会也是这么说。14年才有起色。所以买房的TZ们准备好弹药，抓住最后的机会，狠狠的宰卖房的房东吧
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對墨爾本而言，供應與需求恐怕確實要到2014才有大的改變
Pipeline的要在2012一2013年消化殆盡，
租金會有明顯上行，才是下一波上揚的fundermental
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涨啊涨，吹啊吹，这个泡泡早大早了。有天朝和香港探路呢
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悉尼怎么样？
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前两天刚看了council 的报纸，说这三个月墨尔本东区有几个涨了7%以上。
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11年初说年底才会上扬， 到11年中说12年初上扬，到11年底说12年复活节后上扬， 现在复活节后了说2014， 还有点准头没有啊，呵呵。
不过话说回来， 自住房关键是自己喜欢， 14还是15年上扬都不重要
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又是砖家的预测吗
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多等几年没关系
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墨尔本目前最大的问题，说白了就是OVER SUPPLY，过去18个月如此，各方预计未来24个月才能消化
墨尔本的人口增长率从05-09年之间的井喷，回归到正常幅度，也降低了对HOUSING的需求
一切都需要时间来修正，放眼2014吧
自住房的，看到合适的就入手吧；
投资房的，大可观望至明年底；
已经持有投资房的，算算持有成本，如果明显低于2-4年后再入场的费用，不妨咬牙把持住。
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唉，好的区价格还是会比较贵的吧，不过现在应该是入房市的好时机，可惜口袋里还是羞涩的只能看着大好时光这么溜走啦~
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01/08/2011
Right now there are 43,000 properties for sale on the Melbourne market - the largest amount of stock for any capital city in Australia.
This time last year there was just over 29,000 properties. And back in early 2010 there were only 21,000 properties for sale.
The 43,000 includes a large proportion of new housing stock built by developers over the past two years.
We simply won't see Melbourne house prices fall 40 per cent in this cycle unless the banks stop lending to all but the most secured borrowers and unemployment rises substantially.
Source: The Age
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要坚定不移地执行房价暴涨的方针。
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当年的市场前瞻，现在回头看，其实都实现了
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刚看到title就进来了，现在来看这个帖子是神贴
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个人印象是2013年11月降息trigger的，预测的算很准确了
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