这两块地目前正在做农转宅项目,(8月5日已经收到州政府通知,被划入Growth area,我的投资在半年内已经翻倍了,恭喜自己一下).
下面准备做Master Plan,争取一到两年内完成整个项目. 希望能达到我的预期的回报.
[ 本帖最后由 SSH 于 2011-8-6 11:04 编辑 ]
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四种房地产投资的方式:
The real estate land and development investment cycle generally has four stages, each with its unique risks, costs, and returns. Each stage has its own time frame, and each stage should be viewed as a separate purchase, even if a purchaser were to buy the raw land, entitle, and develop it into an income producing asset. Stages will invariably overlap in many instances, but generally, these four points in time represent when value is added and/or realized.
Stage 1
Raw Land
Objective: Purchase raw land in the path of growth that has not yet been entitled for development. Hold the land until demand causes prices to increase thereby transforming the raw land into a development opportunity.
Timeline: Hold for three to seven years.
Related expenses: Managing the land and paying property taxes. These expenses may be offset by possible farming rents or other short-term revenue opportunities.
Potential Risks:
1. Public policy changes similar to urban growth boundaries, endangered species, development moratoriums, or other anti-development actions affecting the property.
2. Major economic and demographic shifts. However, if researched and managed properly, these risks can be mitigated.
Rewards: Land appreciation.
Stage 2 （这里就是农转宅项目所处的阶段）
Pre-Development and Entitlement Approval
Objective: Buy the raw land and entitle it. Entitling is the process by which a certain type and size of project is approved by the appropriate jurisdictions. Sell the land to a developer once it is entitled, or proceed to develop, if the purchaser in this phase is also a developer.
Timeline: Six months to five years or more, depending upon the approving public agencies and private influences.
Related expenses: Costs incurred while applying for and obtaining necessary approvals will include the principal's time, overhead and expertise, attorney fees, engineering fees (soil, traffic, and civil), architectural, supply and demand studies, surveyors, etc., and other related costs.
Potential Risks: Economic and market changes, approval costs, changes in public policies, "politics" within the county boards and city councils, time required for approvals, attainability of proposed approvals, and demographic and demand changes.
Rewards: The increase in value during this stage can be significant and should not only cover the original cost of the land, and all of the costs associated with obtaining the approvals, but also provide a profit to the purchaser for taking the risks involved in this purchasing stage.
Stage 3
Development/Construction
Objective: Buy the entitled land and obtain necessary building permits (if not already obtained) and commence construction. Obtain pre-leases or pre-sales.
Timeline: Six to 24 months after the minimum or lender required pre-leases or pre-sales are obtained and construction has begun. The project is developed while continuing marketing campaigns aimed at leasing or sales. Once the project is completed, an additional period continues until all sales are complete or additional leases are signed to reach stabilization.
Related expenses: The developer will incur significant costs to obtain the required building permits and mitigate other factors prior to starting construction. Costs will include architectural, structural and civil engineering fees, attorney fees, marketing (pre-lease and pre-sales), supply and demand studies, soils sampling, further environmental studies, and significant developer time, human resources, and overhead expenses, all before construction commences. Once construction starts, the developer's goal is to have many of the major risk factors mitigated leaving just the construction risk.
Potential risks: Market changes (the market may go cold during an extended development phase) and economic downturns. Public policies, county and local politics, and attainability of desired approvals may affect the viability and profitability of the project. Other risks include construction mismanagement and costs, labor strikes, tenant demand, tenant bankruptcy, and many other related risks.
Rewards: The overall financial return is dependent upon the market and product type. Reasonable projections on total cost of 20 - 25% are typical. Individual rates of return can be 20% to 30%, but actual returns will vary greatly depending on market conditions.
Stage 4
Income Producing
Objective: Purchase the stable income producing asset from the developer at the end of Stage 3 and manage the property over an extended period of time.
Timeline: Ongoing
Related expenses: Continual costs, expenses, and capital requirements associated with managing and owning an income producing asset.
Potential Risks: Short-term risks are minimal, unless the market changes dramatically and tenants are unable to afford rents. Other considerations include the real estate market at the time of lease rollovers, future interest rates, fluctuating capitalization rates, future purchaser demand, availability of debt, and mismanagement.
[ 本帖最后由 SSH 于 2011-8-5 10:20 编辑 ]
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城市之肺及Melbourne2030规划:
Green Wedge Zone号称是城市之肺。维州政府在2001年提出了Melbourne2030规划，当中提到要把一些绿地划入Growth area以应对大幅人口增长.这就为投资人／开发商提供了一些极好的机会。从这张图上可以看到两个非常有潜力的地区：Keysborough和Point Cook.
从目前的形势来看，投资房两三年内几乎肯定是没有什么回报的，有点实力的同学应该在地产上下点功夫了。
[ 本帖最后由 SSH 于 2011-8-5 10:15 编辑 ]
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再次挑战:
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我准备在keysborough买个house and land package，55K以下，明天过去转转
不知道那边还有没有什么位置好的地了
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弱弱的问一句，一亩地是多少平方米？
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我说的一亩就是一个Acer. 4046平米。
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恭喜！恭喜呀！
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大手笔啊。2英亩，不是20000平方吗
查了下2X4046.大啊
[ 本帖最后由 sunyk 于 2011-8-6 12:23 编辑 ]
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要多少钱一亩呀？可以贷款吗？
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楼主大手笔。 学习了。
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subdivide土地分拆不大容易吧?
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NARRE WARREN 附近有不少这样的地，比较便宜，1，2个英亩500K左右，当然KEYSBOROUGH的位置好很多，SOMERFIELD的小区内的地基本上1平方1K,400方的地买到40万--很贵了
LZ的地如果可以分割的话就天价了，否则的话，只能修一个豪宅农庄
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终于等到这位小哥，厉害！
我的地就在Somerfield附近，现在由intrapac在做规划（masterplan)，希望能划成20块400方的小地。Intrapac就是开发Somerfield的公司。另外我可不想住在一个大农庄
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搂主买的地不要花 8 m？
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恭喜了，宝地呀！
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这个发展商在卖somerfield的时候design guideline设置了很多限制条件，有些是多余的，长远看来对小区品质有好处，也保护未来业主，对大楼盘来说可以理解
但市场如果转慢的时候，这些限制条件就对您资金回笼不利了，需要跟他们商讨，避免走弯路
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谢谢你的提醒并且愿闻其祥（关于这些限制）。
我估计这两三年内墨尔本的房产会停滞，所以也做好准备啦，也不指望这点资金会短期内回笼。 希望等我的地re－zone出来时，房市会缓过来，到那时可以卖个好价钱。（和老婆都商量好了，准备到欧洲好好玩上6个月）。
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楼主大手笔呀
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只是好奇的問一下樓主，多少錢呀？
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聪明的投资
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楼主去美国回来啦，对最近的经济有啥看法阿？
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150WAN
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谢谢您能记得我，至于对目前经济的看法，大家都是有目共睹的，相当的糟糕。不过我们身在澳洲，还是蛮幸运的。
我最想说的就是一个小故事：
两个人在森林里，遇到了一只大老虎。A就赶紧从背后取下一双更轻便的运动鞋换上。B急了，骂道：“你干嘛呢，再换鞋也跑不过老虎啊！” A说：“对不起，我只要跑得比你快就安全了。”
听上去有点黑色幽默，现实还真是这样的。如果一个人的投资手段比较单一，在此动荡的大环境下，有可能会面对一些比较严峻的挑战。相对而言，如果你有比较好的现金流，又有长短线的投资并行。即使大环境在恶化，个人还是可以做到应付自如（这只是我个人的经验）。当然这中间会有个长期学习和积累的过程，另外运气也是要有一点的 。
有同学好奇我的这个投资到底有多少，我不会说的，不过我肯定这里有不少同学是有这个财力的。至于运气及胆量，就不好说了。
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投资应该在 1-1.5 M 之间。 给我这么多钱，我都不敢这么整， LZ是强人
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不错不错
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楼主有魄力!
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