转自smh.com.au
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Sydney apartment prices are expected to soar by a further 15 per cent over the next two years as low vacancy rates, low interest rates and relatively attractive yields continue to attract investors and younger owner-occupiers.
“It is Generation X and Y – who are increasingly seeing apartments as a more permanent living option – that have been supporting this rise in owner-occupier demand,” said the author of a new report, Angie Zigomanis, of researcher analysts BIS Shrapnel.
Mr Zigomanis says in the report, Apartments in Sydney Suburbs 2014 to 2019, which was released on Thursday, that recent concerns over a potential downturn in Sydney property prices may be premature.
BIS Shrapnel predicts Sydney’s high-density apartment market will remain strong over 2014/15 and 2015/16.
The report says it is unlikely an oversupply of apartments will emerge in the Sydney market as – despite record numbers of new apartments being built – the market is still playing catch-up from almost 10 years of subdued building activity.
“This level of activity [would] need to be sustained for a number of years to counter the underlying undersupply that has emerged after the best part of a decade of underbuilding,” says Mr Zigomanis
He adds the proportion of owner-occupiers living in apartments has begun to creep up, jumping from 39 per cent to 42 per cent in the five years to 2011.
The number of new high-density apartments approved in Sydney is forecast to average 17,900 dwellings per annum over the next five years. That is well above the estimated 13,250 dwellings approved annually in the five years prior to 2013/14.
The areas forecast to have the highest numbers of new apartments are the City of Sydney (3700 apartments per annum), Parramatta LGA (1600), Ryde LGA (1200), Auburn LGA (1100) and Ku-ring-Gai Shire (900).
Mr Zigomanis says if interest rates begin to rise during the middle of next year – as BIS Shrapnel expects they will – and continue to climb into 2016 that would weigh on demand for apartments over subsequent years, and lead to fewer building approvals and weaker prices
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