偶尔看到了前几个月收到的一封邮件，和大家分享。 你又有什么理论和想法呢？拿出来晒晒。
This is an interesting article. http://www.smh.com.au/business/w ... 20120829-2510q.html
Many have been talking about the housing bubble for long while the bubble gets bigger and bigger. The RBA does not see a chance of popping. But if you ask around, more than 80% of people, local or international, would say it's too high.
Lower end properties in Sydney are changing hands very fast, less than a month if measured in time-on-market. The high end suffers. The clear reason is the cheap money is no longer there. So we are seeing median prices are coming down everywhere, but it is still hard to get into the market for those starters. The smallest apartment in Bondi came into sight. The great Australian dream has been slowly forgotten.
The big picture? Everything comes down to the mining! Is it going up or down? First of all, it is still very strong, the demands are still there. The price is off height, this is the fact. Another fact is the capital injection has cooled a lot. The event of BHP stopping Olympic Dame project was just the beginning. many people like to think the sector can not come down overnight with such a big capital overhead (the momentum theory). Others tend to stress the Domino effect seen in 2000 internet bubble burst and the US housing crash.
Confused? Yes, it is very confusing time. Glenn Stevens is "cautiously optimistic". He ruled out direct intervention to bring the Australian dollar down, although it was "a bit on the high side". Why? Because the high Australian dollar is also a cushion to any crash.
Comb through all the facts for the property market, some conclusions are almost certain:
1. Property price growing at the same rate as that in the past is no longer sustainable
2. High end properties will remain weak for some time to come
3. Property crash is unlikely especially in Sydney (it is a safe haven then)
4. Those positive-gearing properties in mining towns appear riskier, and the first few falls of such towns will certainly trigger panic.
5. The size of new developed properties tend to be smaller and smaller to partially address the affordability
6. Government will introduce more and more incentive policies and more and more consortiums will be formed to take the most benefits, not the consumers for sure.
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"cautiously optimistic"应该是很恰当的总结。
但是每个人的理解可能不同：
看好的人会说：it is optimistic!
看坏的人会说：be cautious!
正如有人说现在是'半杯满'，另有人说是'半杯空'。
房产而言，如果拍卖清仓率高的话，应该考虑卖，但不应该考虑买；
现在不高不低，如果你觉得应该optimistic, 可能更适合买!
Good luck to any of your choice!
Gook luck to everyone next Tuesday (horses and lotto)!
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这是一个金融业的朋友转来的一个邮件部分内容，邮件的下面因为有广告内容及其他涉及隐私而被删掉了。 不过所有精华都在前面的部分。这几个月来的事情发生似乎还就是这样的。
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这文章里面的conclusions没有什么新意呀，跟大部分人的观点一致
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。。。。。。 Lower end properties in Sydney are changing hands very fast, less than a month if measured in time-on-market. The high end suffers. The clear reason is the cheap money is no longer there. So we are seeing median prices are coming down everywhere。。。。。。
这个推论真不是一般的错误
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最近不是说开始回暖吗？
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我本人喜欢这个结论”The size of new developed properties tend to be smaller and smaller“。最近看很多的楼花都有很大的比例是一房的。 室内面积不上50的也处处可见。
记得当West Pennant Hill, Dural 被大规模开发时，房子是越盖越大。这一轮的开发主要是Apartments，而且都是不在极力鼓吹那些漂亮的penthouse。 这是个很明显的变化。
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也要能让银行贷款给你才能买。不到50平米的房子银行不想知道你值多少钱。。。
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真是这样，BankWest就根本不做小于50平米的贷款。
奇怪的是它的Parent Bank CBA却无所谓。
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更多的Apartment，一房的比其他房型的都多。 目前的开发风在悉尼如此，在Brisbane也是这样的。 前一周看到一篇SMH上的文章，说这10年里house 的Building Approval 比前10年少了百分之十几，可Apartment却多了很多。 我想这里头一定有政府政策的引导。
Off-plan, NRAS，小户型 ... 这些都是银行不喜欢听到的新事物。贷款上真就有些困难。 很多贷款Broker也不喜欢，因为麻烦。
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那现在屯一个high end property，岂不是很好。。。
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任何投资，市场过热都是风险到来之际。
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一千个人心中有一千个哈姆雷特
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能屯得起一定不错的。
http://smh.domain.com.au/feature ... 20121026-28939.html
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香港就这样的。
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LZ 英文真好！
能给个翻译版么？
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买房的最好时机到底是什么呢？
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如果有人回答你的问题，你敢听吗？
其实答案总是“现在”。问题却是：买哪里，买什么样的，等等。
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买房任何时候都没错，关键就是选房。
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bankwest小银行，自然搞风险弱，CBA，家大业大，出点纰漏也能扛得住。
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说的很中肯啊， 意思就是不会大跌，悉尼一带就持稳吧，像以前那种段时间大幅增长是很难出现的意思。
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还有一个意思是现在的开发模式有改变，house不是主打的产品，Apartment才是。这会对整个地产有所冲击。
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买房的最好时机就是有钱的时候
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房价确实太高。现在好像没有人在说什么7年翻番的事情了。
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我觉得从去年开始，楼花中介也不说7年翻番啦。
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