Australian housing market will hit the wall in coronavirus recession, experts say
Economists say house prices could fall as much as 20% if the recession lasts longer than six months
The Reserve Bank’s dramatic $90bn boost for the financial system will not be enough to save the housing market from a possible crash as Australia heads into a coronavirus-driven recession.
Along with billions in emergency lending for small businesses, the RBA cut the cash rate to zero on Thursday in what would normally be a signal for buyers and investors to pile into property.
But with transactions likely to dry up amid a creeping nationwide lockdown, the long boom in the housing market faces its biggest test for more than a decade.
The only thing we can say with certainty is that the fallout from coronavirus is going to be brutal
Greg Jericho
Greg Jericho
Read more
Some economists, such as AMP’s Shane Oliver, estimate that prices could fall as much as 20% if the recession lasts more than six months. A more limited downturn in which prices drop 10% is more likely, he thinks.
CoreLogic, the research firm that compiles data on the market, said on Thursday that the “extreme uncertainty and economic fragility” ushered in by the coronavirus pandemic made it difficult to expect any response to the record low borrowing costs from buyers and sellers.
Consumer confidence has been weak and existing economic headwinds, including high household debt, make the property market “particularly susceptible” to a fall in demand.
Advertisement
“As the coronavirus pandemic broadens, and the probability of an Australian recession increases, consumer confidence is trending lower from an already weak position,” CoreLogic said. “This will likely weigh on high-commitment consumer spending decisions, such as buying or selling a home.”
Confidence in the market has remained robust until now. Auction clearances were still realtively high last weekend – ending up at 65.6% in Melbourne and 68.1% in Sydney.
But market experts have begun to report a rush to sell amid the mounting crisis. Tom Panos, a Sydney auctioneer, said he had noticed more vendors rushing to “cash out”.
His view was supported by buyer’s agent Pete Wargent, who said he had noticed investors with multiple properties were looking to sell. But he thinks transactions are about to “drop off a cliff” in the lockdown.
“The reality is that monetary stimulus won’t help the housing market. Confidence in the property market is now very low, as is consumer confidence generally, and until that recovers we won’t see many transactions.
“Some might try to sell but whether they can find a buyer, I don’t know. Open homes and auctions could b be cut and one thing’s for sure, transactions are going to drop off a cliff.
“Uncertainty is extremely high. Very few people are committing to a purchase. No vendor wants to sell for a price lower which is less than they think their property is worth. But there is a fear now that prices could be lower in six or nine months’ time. So they’re thinking, ‘let’s get the deal done’ and that cascades into lower prices.”
Quantitative easing: what is it and why is the Reserve Bank of Australia considering it?
Read more
Damien Klassen, of the Melbourne-based fund manager Nucleus Wealth, said the RBA had used up all its ammunition in recent years by cutting rates to already record-low levels so there was little impact for housing from Thursday’s measures. The spectre of rising unemployment was the most important factor in the delicate housing market equation.
“I’m sure they’ll try to pull something out of the hat because generally the government will do everything it can to save the housing market,” he said. “But once unemployment starts going up – and I can’t see how it won’t – people will be forced to start selling and prices will fall.”
Advertisement
Wargent believes there is still a “best-case scenario” for housing where the government succeeds in flattening the curve of new Covid-19 cases and the economy bounces back in the second half of the year with record low rates, government fiscal stimulus and a low dollar boosting exports.
CoreLogic’s analysts have also sounded a note of optimism, pointing to pent-up demand possibly being released later in the year, even providing “good buying opportunities to secure properties at a competitive price and at ultra-low interest rates”.
评论
http://www..com.au/bbs/f ... &extra=page%3D3
这个也是砖家吗？
评论
砖家可能没想到银行会出这招。
Banks defer loan payments for six months
https://www.afr.com/companies/fi ... ths-20200320-p54c3d
https://www.afr.com/companies/fi ... ers-20200320-p54c6w
评论
那是受影响的商业贷款，不是房贷
评论
small business loan 和home loan是两回事
评论
房贷也是一样。
评论
那是你自己想象出来的吧
评论
信砖家的人都在租房子，房子早就卖了。
House降不降价和砖家的分析一毛钱关系都没有
评论
文章里完全没有提到房贷啊 有确切消息吗
评论
如果有人还不起房贷，就会执行。可是，事实是根本没有人还不起房贷，因为利息降低了很多。
评论
没有，房贷无关
这是给商业贷款的
评论
衰退超过六个月几乎已成定局。
评论
BTW，CBA的新贷款利息2.24%好低啊。
我的一个投资房固定要到期了，马上转贷过去，这样一算，一年可以节省了近2万块钱。
这个房子现在租金是每月3500左右，以后每月还贷款利息只要2000了，我的负扣税怎么算啊？发愁了。
PS，我的投资房都是按照自住房做贷款的。
评论
顺便吐槽一下这个专家
衰退6个月房价只跌20%？
recession recession recession
评论
lz应该多发这种帖子，这样租房的人群不敢买房，我的房子就不愁租。
评论
这个衰退可能不是按照月计算的哦。
评论
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finan ... onavirus-australia/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news ... onavirus-chaos.html
我还没有这种本事。
评论
这和3楼完全两回事，这个没有任何新变化，就是自己去银行申请hardship，至于能给你多少，要看银行了
3楼是受影响的小商业一律给6个月延期
评论
3楼是说经济，这个是谈楼市，都一样，都是帮助。
评论
3楼是新的政策，这个是原来就有的机制
评论
反正自住房，涨跌不关心
评论
那是因为刚刚开始，刚公布的失业率还下降了呢，过一个月再看，别忘了澳航昨天就裁了两万人
评论
那还盼房东撑不住卖房？
评论
我没说过盼啥啊，我只看见你在胡说八道
评论
银行用牺牲利息来托住现在的房市？能撑多久？
另外现在利率是历史最低，如果停止收贷6个月，等危机过去还会有降息空间吗？估计利率只有涨一条路，所以如果现在房价不跌，就是历史高位，因为看不到任何短期内老百姓可支配收入上涨的趋势，而且还有各种生活成本的上升会吃掉收入
评论
在哪里，house能租金收入3500一个月？我在vic 这里租金也就 400左右一周，一个月房东也就1200-1500 收入而已。
评论
你才胡说八道。我先发帮小企业后发帮房贷不行吗？
澳洲中文论坛热点
- 悉尼部份城铁将封闭一年，华人区受影响！只能乘巴士（组图）
- 据《逐日电讯报》报导，从明年年中开始，因为从Bankstown和Sydenham的城铁将因Metro South West革新名目而
- 联邦政客们具有多少房产？
- 据本月早些时分报导，绿党副首领、参议员Mehreen Faruqi已获准在Port Macquarie联系其房产并建造三栋投资联