Mini housing boom will run out of steam: UBS
https://www.afr.com/property/res ... ast-20190916-p52rqi
Su-Lin Tan
AFR
Sep 16, 2019
2轮利率消减，供应减少，导致房价短期攀升现象，正在经历考验。
从最近对销售公司，贷款经纪人公司的调查中发现，投资者参与仍然较2012-2017少很多，自住参与者力量已经使出了一大半，还剩余部分力量。 如果未来对促进房价攀升的政策不及时出台，恐怕房价在不久的将来要面临严峻考验。
各金融机构预计未来半年内，还有2次利率消减，但是每一次的消减所带来的房贷申请刺激，将逐步减弱。
瑞银信贷负责人表示：2020年澳洲房产将面临决定性的挑战。2020年后，如果房价滞涨，其实对于投资者来说，就是下跌。
The current housing mini-boom triggered by two rate cuts will run out of steam, according to UBS.
Weak credit growth, little pick-up in new housing development and very low levels of homes listed for sale in Sydney and Melbourne suggest there may not be enough fuel to sustain a lasting boom like the one in 2012-2017, according to a UBS analysis.
Unlike that boom, the current uptick in the cycle also hasn't seen the same new housing supply surge that normally follows price increases, indicating it's likely to be short-lived or weaker than previously.
"We expect RBA rate cuts and APRA credit easing to trigger a 'mini-boom' for home prices. Nonetheless, 'this cycle will be different'," UBS economists George Tharenou, Carlos Cacho and Jim Xu said in a note.
"After July credit growth slid to an 8-year low, even with more loans ahead, housing and total credit may only bounce to 4 per cent year on year, as interest-only mortgages expire to principal and interest and up to 70 per cent of mortgagees don't change payments after rate cuts."
Not as big as it previously was: apartment construction in inner-city Melbourne.
Building approvals slump to six-year low
"July building approvals collapsed to a 6-year low ... and our lead indicator of land sales indicates ongoing weakness even worse than our (long-held and relatively bearish) forecast for total dwelling commencements to fall to 170,000 in 2019 and stay low in 2020."
More broadly, UBS expects the kind of "multiplier effect" from a "real boom" such as the one in 2012-2017 will be muted, given low sales listings and a record low turnover in renovations and other housing-related spending.
The market is already showing some signs of a slowdown after last week's auction clearance rates dipped lower after a few hectic weeks.
While still strong by standards, Sydney and Melbourne both posted lower preliminary clearance rates, according to Corelogic. Once again, these sales were made against a backdrop of very low listing volumes.
While many buyers have seen some buoyant sales where final auction prices finished higher than asking prices, mainly in popular areas, by and large the housing market is still starved of the easy credit that propelled the last boom, mortgage brokers add.
"I am not confident in the depth or longevity of current demand," mortgage broker Catalyst Advisers managing director Adrian Lee said.
"If stock levels or supply returned to same levels as at the peak of the boom, I highly doubt the demand would keep up with it.
"The truth is that most if not all applicants cannot borrow the same amount of money today as they could a year or two ago despite a reduction in interest rates and serviceability benchmark rates."
Mr Lee sees the clampdown on easy credit remaining in force, with the government in a hurry to implement better lending standards following the banking royal commission.
评论
别急, 还有QE
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一群多军在来的路上
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慢热才好，不要100度的沸点，只要70-80度，在加上持续的降息预期和贷款严控，外界的一点加持都会推动上涨
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围观群众手中余粮不多了
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很多都hold
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老司机！
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其实吧 目前 不建议满仓放在一个篮子里。 大可以放部分在商品，港股，ETF指数基金。澳洲两党对房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的基本达成共识。这也是为了获得本地大多数百姓的选票。
如果你是早几年买的偏远地区房产，比如Kellyville，如果目前已经几乎翻倍，大可以卖掉来购买上北区房产，获得更加方便及具有更大增值潜力的房产
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明显感觉，身边的2015，2016被套牢的朋友，已经完美解套了
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QE是针对商业银行的。关键还要看政府政策导向。但就业率不好，政府应该不鼓励增发的货币流向股市和地产。
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自住刚需第一波，降息第二波，QE第三波。三波过后市场热了，傻子们就来接盘了
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本来就是让被套的，看出来风头出手解套的，对于还款无压力的，继续持有也好，说不定20年后又翻翻
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Kellyville的前景比上北好一些吧，基建概念上，地铁沿线至少还有2波，上北一直没什么预期了。另一个影响因素是学区，上北学校这几年走下坡了，2e，ryde和山区在上坡，而且部分已经超过上北学校。
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昨天也看到这篇新闻了，本来想贴出来给大家分享但是没有订阅afr 不能贴全文。多谢LZ分享。
政府希望房地产横盘个几年，来挤泡沫。这是他们最想看到的，也是目前最好的方法。
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没错了。 所以自住性价比高，投资不妥
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主要是自主也很难支撑现在的房价。
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