通胀数据助推 Gillard选情
PETER MARTIN
2010.7.29
JULIA Gillard 将带着两个重要的经济利好消息参加本次竞选 – 通胀下降和失业率下降 – 通胀出乎意外的回落消除了竞选期间房贷利率上升的可能。
被密切跟踪的通胀率回落到2.7%，三年来首次低于3%，介于储备银行的目标控制范围之内。银行董事会在星期二的投票中，势将维持利率不变。
“我很受鼓舞，但不会就此满足，” 财长Wayne Swan 说。 “正象我们原先预测，通胀回落在目标区间，但是，我们正处于矿产繁荣第二阶段。基础设施和房屋仍将面临压力，这需要一个长期的解决方案。”
反对党的财长发言人 Joe Hockey 声称，这个数据是一个失败的信号。
“我确信，财长会说通胀已经得到控制，”他在新闻发布会上说。
“但是，你无法说服澳洲家庭。他们正支付着上涨了18%的电费，上涨14%的水费，上涨10%的煤气费，医院和医疗服务价格也上升近7%的水平。”
虽然这类公共服务的价格今年到六月份以来上涨迅猛，其他产品的价格大都上涨缓慢甚至严重负增长。面包，作为我们联盟党竞选早期所宣传的议题，今年到六月只上升了2%。上个季度除了墨尔本以外的其他所有城市中，它的价格都在稳定下降。衣服的价格也继续下调4%，奶酪和鸡蛋分别下降1%和4%，计算机和视听设备的价格进一步下降20%。，
“我们看到的是超幅度价格回落，”联邦银行经济学家 Michael Blythe指出。“这发生在家用电器，保险，假日旅游、住宿和衣服领域；这些领域就象可以随时引爆的定时炸弹。一但回到正常的条件，这种趋势将很快出现逆转，导致通胀攀升。”
如果扣除一次性25%的烟草赋税，通胀率将只有0.3%，而不是0.6%。
“下周，利率将不会上调，”Macquarie集团经济学家 Rory Robertson说。“不过，如果你认为储备银行会试图让大选变得更加有趣，你可以重新考虑这个结论。”
8月21日的选举到来之前，政府将只剩下一个经济问题需要面对，即投票前九天星期四将要发布的七月份失业数据。
失业率今年以来一直低于5.5%，非常接近财长所定义的“完全就业”5%的水平。
6月份澳洲新创建了45，900个就业岗位，是就业持续提高的第11个月份，这相当于每天产生1，000个工作。
6月份几乎所有的新工作都是在矿业大省西澳和昆士兰产生。这些省的通涨率在澳洲上升最快，年价格指数分别为3.5%和3.2%。 墨尔本的价格上升了3.1%。
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Inflation figures a boost for Gillard PETER MARTIN
July 29, 2010
.JULIA Gillard will go to the polls with the ultimate economic double - falling inflation and falling unemployment - after a surprise dive in inflation removed the prospect of higher mortgage rates in the lead-up to the election.
The Reserve Bank board meeting will vote to leave interest rates on hold on Tuesday after the closely watched underlying rate of inflation slid to 2.7 per cent, the first time it has been below 3 per cent and within the bank's target band for three years.
''I am encouraged, but not complacent,'' Treasurer Wayne Swan said. ''Inflation is back in the band as we forecast, but we are heading into Mining Boom Mark 2. There will be pressures on infrastructure and housing which will need long-term solutions.''
Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey declared the figures a sign of failure.
''I'm sure the Treasurer will say that inflation is under control,'' he told a news conference.
''But you can't say that to Australian families that are paying 18 per cent more for their electricity, who are paying 14 per cent more for their water, 10 per cent more for their gas and nearly 7 per cent more for hospital and medical services.''
While utility prices climbed enormously in the year to June almost every other price rise was low to sharply negative. Bread, an early feature of the Coalition's campaign, climbed in price just 2 per cent in the year to June. In the most recent quarter it fell in price or was steady in every city but Melbourne. The price of clothes slid a further 4 per cent, the price of cheese and eggs 1 per cent and 4 per cent and the price of computers and audio visual equipment a further 20 per cent.
''We are seeing extensive discounting,'' said Commonwealth Bank economist Michael Blythe. ''It's in household appliances, insurance, holiday travel and accommodation and clothing; and it's something of a ticking time-bomb. A return to more normal conditions could see the discounting quickly reversed and inflation climb.''
The headline inflation rate of 0.6 per cent would have been only 0.3 per cent had it not been for the one-off 25 per cent hike in tobacco tax.
''There will be no interest rate hike next week,'' said Macquarie Group economist Rory Robertson. ''If you were thinking the Reserve Bank might make the election campaign interesting, think again.''
The government faces only one more economic hurdle ahead of the August 21 election, the release of the July unemployment figures on Thursday week, just nine days before the poll.
The unemployment rate has been below 5.5 per cent all year and is currently 5.1, very close to the 5 per cent mark defined by the Treasury as ''full employment''.
Australia created 45,900 jobs in June, the 11th successive month in which employment has climbed, typically at the rate of about 1000 jobs per day.
Almost all of the new jobs created in June were in the mining-dominated states of Western Australia and Queensland. Those states have the fastest inflation in Australia, with prices growing at annual rates of 3.5 and 3.2 per cent. Prices in Melbourne climbed 3.1 per cent.
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http://www.theage.com.au/federal ... 20100728-10w66.html
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