Author: CMC Markets, Tina Teng
昨日全球乳制品拍卖价格较前次下滑7.4%，下滑幅度超过前值-3.1%。乳制品平均价格由前次2738美元/公吨回落至2569美元/公吨。其中，全脂奶粉价格与脱脂奶粉价格均下跌8.0%，分别跌至2453美元/公吨与2018美元/公吨。全脂奶粉价格与3000美元/公吨的新西兰奶农理想价位行之愈远。纽币再次呈压下行，对美元汇率由昨日高位0.6777滑落至目前0.6700附近。
全球乳制品拍卖价格变化
10年乳制品价格走势
数据来源：Globaldairytrade
新西兰恒天然乳业目前对固体奶粉收购价格预期为4.6纽币/千克，远低于绝大多数奶农的理想卖价5.3纽币/千克。恒天然乳业预期在本月下旬对其价格预期再次评估。
新西兰商品交易所（NZX）期货价格显示11月份全脂奶粉价格将下行5%，对于2015年末至2016年的乳品商品价格的预期较为平淡，其预期直至2016年7月份，全脂奶粉价格仅有望达到2800美元/公吨。
新西兰乳品产量在本季有所下滑，9月份总产量达209，484公吨，比去年同期下滑7.2%。然而其减产量被欧洲奶农的增产所抵消，使得乳制品价格难以上行。
新西兰经济走势有9月份的复苏逐步又走入不明朗的阶段，新西兰央行在上个月的议息会议保持官方利率不变，但仍然示意由于经济仍然有下行风险又进一步降息的可能性。劳动力市场方面，第三季度数据有可能会仍显疲软（重点关注今日新西兰第三季度就业数据10：45 NZD）。加之中国经济增长放缓的担忧，新西兰央行可能会在12再次实行降息已压低本国货币价值。
目前纽币/美元的潜在支持位置可能在0.6620附近，而上行压力可能在0.6750左右。
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