Bellamy's Australia said full-year sales for its baby formula will be at the lower end of its guidance, and first-half revenue will fall by up to 15 per cent as it looks to run down trade stock ahead of a brand upgrade.
The Launceston-based company is also still waiting to hear from Beijing regarding its application to sell Chinese-labelled product in China. Ten months after filing its application to the new market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation (formerly called China Food and Drug Administration), it has yet to be aprpoved.
In August, chief executive Andrew Cohen said he expected to gain the certification this calendar year but at the company's annual meeting in Tasmania on Wednesday he had no firm update, only saying he was "confident and respectful of the process".
Mr Cohen also reiterated to shareholders on Wednesday the baby food and formula manufacturer's 2018-19 performance will be hurt by slower category growth and a more competitive trading environment.
The disappointing update sent the stock tumbling 51¢, or 6 per cent, to $7.98.
BAL
BELLAMYS FPO (BAL)
$7.98-0.51-6.01%
volume 3604293 value 28392342.3
"We do see a more challenging 2018-19 trading environment, and have observed slower China cross-border growth across the category, as well as increased competition in terms of both availability and trade pricing for both local and global competitors," he said.
"We view these changes as short-term challenges ... The underlying segment potential remains significant and the macro-trends for both organic formula and food, and the cross-border ecommerce channel remain relevant, especially in China."
Running down inventory
Mr Cohen added that the company needs to run-down inventory sitting with distributors prior to a fresh product launch in the second half of the year, which will impact first-half sales by $10 million to $15 million. He also flagged the possible increase of the already stated $6 million write-off provision set aside last financial year for the launch.
The provision had to be taken in order to protect the brand's integrity in China since the distributor owns the China-labelled stock, and Bellamy's must buy that stock back in order avoid two labels (one new and one discounted) simultaneously being sold, Mr Cohen said in August.
Bellamy's will now also be including fresh local Australian milk, and extending the formula range to include formulations for older children and also pregnant or breastfeeding mothers.
"We have also already launched the new premium branding for food, expanded food ranging to include Woolworths, and launched an enhanced cereal range fortified with GOS pre-biotic, a sugar-free custards range and a new exotic fruit pouch range aligned to Chinese preferences," Mr Cohen added.
Bellamy's said on Wednesday, given recent category performance, it anticipates full-year Australian label revenue growth at the low end of the stated zero to 10 per cent range this year. Australian label sales of baby formula reached $302 million in fiscal 2018, up from $203 million in fiscal 2017.
Full-year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins will continue to sit at 22 per cent to 25 per cent on a normalised basis, excluding any further write-downs for the brand upgrade, which is in line with the second half of 2018.
Stronger performance is expected in second half of this year as normal trading patterns return and the group implements key revenue initiatives including the brand upgrade launch, it said.
Analysts have warned there are a range of factors which could influence the milk space going forward.
A paper from Bloomberg analysts on Wednesday afternoon pointed to "downside risk" from anticipated changes to e-commerce laws in China from January.
"The entire industry will also be hurt by declining birth rates," analyst Shen Li wrote.
1990年中国人口出生率为2.1%，而到了2000年中国人口出生率就断崖式降到了1.4%的超低水平，2017年进一步降到了1.24%（世界平均水平为2.5%）
中国新生人口逐年走低，开放二胎之后的2017年比2016年，少生了60万，中国的年出生人口将以每年减少30万到80万的速度下降，可能会跌到1150万的水平。
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大体意思就是说，中国新生儿市场的大饼越来越小，分饼的狼越来越凶残，澳洲奶粉股长期前景不乐观。
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中国一年生出半个澳大利亚的人口，每两年再造一个澳大利亚。
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单一盈利模式,而且不是领头羊...怎么看都好不到哪里去.
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澳洲代购开始衰退了，朋友圈越来越少叫卖的。
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断崖式降
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有啥不对的。
巴菲特不是一直讲只投自己懂的公司(不懂的怕晚上睡不着觉),大跌大买(别人恐惧我贪婪)，捂到地久天长(股市十年不开市，对我没影响)。广大韭菜都奉之为圭臬的。
证据：这些年涨的好的FAANG，都是熟悉的，天天用的。
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那你觉得apt 呢？
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大奶的借口也傻呀，中国出生人口是去年出现断崖式的下降么？
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当时开放二胎，一窝蜂涌入奶粉股，因为觉得生育会上升。结果事实猜不中。
这正是经济的有意思的地方。
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都这样啊。
A2的婴儿配方奶粉也都是新莱特生产的。
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最近这只股升了10%
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一个品牌，只有经过中国人手，肯定是过山车节奏，然后就没有然后了
一个擅长短线炒作的民族
一个不会花时间去经验的民族
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都被共产党骗了，说是放开二胎，结果还不如计划生育的人口增长快呢
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超市天天缺货
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有一个懂得
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国内卖300多一罐！
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现在谁敢生？一点政策上的扶持都没有。其他国家都有奶粉金之类的，补贴多多。国内生一个自己掏腰包两百万
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高房价，高育儿费，是天然的避孕措施
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中国人太多没法给补贴
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只能说成也代购，败也代购，没有代购澳洲奶粉股也不会辉煌过
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就等着高通胀吃掉这些大山，出生率才会上去
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中国生育率会下降吗？
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贝拉米不行啊
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没人喝贝拉米的 和出生率没一点关系。只喝爱他美和a2
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明年开始双边贸易零关税了。有人注意吗
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主要还是看代购吧，印上中文，改了配方国人就是不认不喝。
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