澳洲中国人群体债务沉重，2014年将迎来破产倒闭潮

在澳大利亚证券外汇



索罗斯日前择文：今日世界面临的最大不确定性不是欧元，而是中国的未来方向。对中国来说，促成其快速增长的发展模式已经失去了动力，中国当前的政策存在一大尚未解决的矛盾之处：重新启动火炉也会重燃债务增长，这种情形在几年之后将难以为继。

的确，2014年中国政府面临两难境地：

--人民币走弱将导致国家崩溃。在国际金融大鳄忽悠下极易发生羊群效应，人民币将如同1948年的金元卷，以每天贬值一半的速度达至瞬间崩溃。
故人民币只能选择走强，而不断走强的货币将导致负债者破产，因为他们借贷成本变得越来越昂贵，同时货币走强需要紧缩的货币政策，不利于借贷者以新债付旧债。

--银行不愿借贷给民营企业，部分原因是因为不少民营企业家“拿到”银行的钱从没想过要还，这几年更是举着“投资海外”的幌子，实行将银行贷款资金卷为个人资产的诈骗活动。一些地方已经开始了资金出逃海外与银行收回贷款之间的赛跑。

但是银行不愿贷款伤及小微企业，从而伤及到就业。

--国内四大黑金集团：贪腐官员，金融行业，大型国企，出口企业。
从已揭发的案例看，一个官员贪得几个亿（呼和浩特铁路局副局长），一个集团截获上千亿（中石油），国家人民到底有多少钱财被那些个人拿走？怎么猜都不为多！我说有几十万亿。

但是冰冻三尺非一日之寒，将他们一锅端则经济会迅速滑落，政权基础被动摇，只能是一个一个地来，问题是如果动手慢了，因出逃造成的损失越来越大，将至触目惊心，民心皆失。


--三四线城市房地产泡沫破裂不可避免，鄂尔多斯新城康巴什楼市已全面崩盘，康巴什楼市大面积降价，从去年均价10000元暴跌至3000多元。大部分人选择居住老城区东胜。政府投资了钱，但百姓不需要，康巴什这座空城已经成为中国房地产泡沫的“最佳展品”。另，只有50万人口的广西北海居然高楼林立，而且还有很多在建的，每栋楼都装饰的很漂亮，据说能有一成人入住就不错了，这是什么样的经济现象？

冰山从外层薄弱处融化，一线城市是中心最厚的地方。一但北上广房价大跌，说明中国经济与金融已经无法支撑，海外对冲基金将成群结队为做空而来。


--中国企业负债过重，已超过GDP百分之一百，由于产能过剩，资金效率低下，一旦贷款利息上升，大批企业将陷入亏损境地，破产倒闭。
问题是许多中国百姓尤其是所谓的企业家被西方洗脑，一致认为货币只会贬值，所以高负债高杠杆拼命借钱到处借钱，现在金融系统开始停贷，击鼓传花游戏结束，资金链条立刻断裂。

--2013年以来，每一个对于银行或影子银行的监管政策出台，板子都生生地打在A股的屁股上。
8号文出台，A股大跌；9号文谣传，A股大跌；107号文公布，A股继续大跌！银行业未见倒下，活得倒还滋润。证券业却已阵亡，只在苟延残喘。




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这是危言耸听吗，明天再来看这个贴

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很新颖按照这种推理，澳洲也不远了吧。

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好贴

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中国都崩溃几十年了，再不崩溃这些唱衰的人就要崩溃了

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中国似乎被说破产很多很多次了

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这个贴有点老了，好像很久以前就看过

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到底是索络斯写的还是楼主自己杜撰的, 原文,出处和链接呢?
索洛斯有大笔股票投资在中国, 怎会唱衰中国? 这不是搬起石头砸自己的脚吗?

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索罗斯说：中国.....在国际金融大鳄忽悠下balabala,民营企业家卷银行的钱外逃balabala，国内4大黑金集团Balabala



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股市已经是弃子。汇率或是利率，中国政府早晚要保一个丢一个。

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每次预言崩溃的时候都会附带一句话：这次情况和以前不同，这回肯定逃不过

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太瞎扯了，天天唱衰中国，可是越唱越强。

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强烈看衰中国大妈卷钱外逃，强烈看多习总￥21包子午餐

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这帖子怎么是唱衰中国？正是唱多中国中央政府，难道现在改革要解决的不正是本帖所述要点么？房地产泡沫，资金外逃，贪官污吏，金融腐败，地方和企业举债。。

中央政府已认识到问题的严重性正在想方设法解决，但是积重难返，任重道远。。我们小小投资者不得不防

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看都看不懂，也要发言？

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lz似乎对2014不抱希望哦，各种看衰

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有道理！预测有50%的可能发生。

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呵呵，年初总有人喜欢意淫

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seems everyone is happy

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George Soros warns that Chinese slowdown is biggest worry in 2014
Slower growth in Chinese manufacturing could be just the start of a new global economic threat, the financier has warned


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Phillip Inman and Katie Allen
The Observer, Sunday 5 January 2014
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SOROS
George Soros says the model responsible for China's huge growth has run out of steam. Photograph: Michel Euler/AP

George Soros is worried about China, and we should take note. The hedge fund boss, who built his fortune betting on the world's money markets, is concerned that 20 years of rapid growth is about to run out of steam.

Soros, who famously bet against the strength of the pound in the European exchange rate mechanism and won during 1992's Black Wednesday debacle, will be a prominent figure at the World Economic Forum in Davos later this month, when policymakers and business people debate how to foster global growth.

In the Square Mile, a brief glance at the stock market shows the impact of a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing output last month – and the fear that this will become protracted. The FTSE 100 is down 30 points since the new year break. It includes mining companies such as Rio Tinto and Anglo American, which have strong links to the Chinese economy. Signs that the world's second-largest economy is slowing have caused the price of many commodities to fall, and helped break a 12-year bull run for the gold price. (China consumes around half of the world's iron ore and coal, and buys more than a third of its base metals.) Beijing's move to cut back on corn imports made the grain the worst-performing commodity last year, as it fell almost 40%.

Predictions that China's economy lost momentum in the final quarter of last year were underscored by figures showing that the manufacturing sector grew at a slower pace in December as export orders weakened. Official figures can say whatever the Chinese authorities want them to say, but there is widespread agreement that the economy is suffering a longer-term slowdown.

Mark Williams at thinktank Capital Economics said the news that China has a $3 trillion (£1.8tn) local government debt mountain would fuel the fear: "Activity among large firms has turned down again and is likely to cool further as policymakers rein in local government debt. We therefore expect China's economy to slow again this year."

Soros bluntly states that three years of worrying over the eurozone should give way to worrying about China. It's not that he believes a solution has been found to the debt mountains in parts of Europe; it's just that he thinks the euro problem has reached a plateau while China could be on the skids.

He said: "The major uncertainty is not the euro but China. The growth model responsible for its rise has run out of steam."

Until recently China has thrived by restricting households' spending, effectively forcing them to save. The savings are channelled into industrial production.

Foreign exchange built up in the boom years has mostly been invested in international expansion – in Africa and in parts of Asia neglected by a previously aloof Japan.

The financial crisis showed the weakness in the idea of becoming the workshop for the world when that world couldn't afford to go on buying. To keep the wheels turning, local authorities and other government agencies were allowed to borrow.

Last year the Chinese leadership said it recognised that plan was flawed, and public sector debt needed to be cut. But when the economy slowed dramatically after borrowing was restricted, the policy was quickly reversed. The subsequent boost looks shortlived, even if China has billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves to soften any economic blow.

Soros said: "China's leadership was right to give precedence to economic growth over structural reforms, because structural reforms, combined with fiscal austerity, push economies into a deflationary tailspin. But there is an unresolved contradiction in China's current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years."

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看得蛋疼，对冲基金之流的玩法本质上就是保险策略+牛逼模型。听他们说还不如听我吹。48国力能和现在比?制造业大国从来都是货币走强，英国，德国，卢布，日元。人民币升值整体策略目前看比较成功，尤其是考虑国际环境。机电出口早就成主体了，用了牛劲再顶天花板。创新，创新，再创新，关键词改了都几年了。

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Chinese local authorities owe almost £1.8tn – report
National audit office figures reveal alarming levels of debt accrued by state governments and businesses
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Katie Allen
The Guardian, Tuesday 31 December 2013 05.27 AEST
As China keeps building its economy, it also builds up debt.
As China keeps building its economy, it also builds up debt. Photograph: Reuters
Fears about China's rising debts have intensified after a long-awaited report showed local governments owe almost $3tn (£1.8tn). Authorities' debts are up almost 70% since the end of 2010, according to wide-ranging research from the country's national audit office.

The report was ordered in July amid concern that the available figures failed to show how far thousands of local councils and state-owned businesses in the world's second biggest economy had overstretched themselves.

Audit office agents were sent across China to report on the finances of 36,000 local governments. They put the total outstanding debt at 18tn yuan (£1.8tn) as of the end of June. That marked a rise of 67% on the total arrived at after a less comprehensive audit in 2011.

The debt mountain was near the mid-point of market forecasts and so below the most pessimistic predictions for debt of £2.4tn. But the finding will do little to calm those investors and analysts who fear China's myriad local and state enterprises have been racking up debts to accelerate production rather than growing sustainably. Economists said the new Communist party leadership now faced a balancing act of trying to temper local government borrowing without denting an already cooling economy.

The local government tally takes China's total government debt to around 58% of GDP, higher than previously thought by many economists. Credit rating agency Fitch, which cut China's long-term local currency rating to A-plus from AA-minus in April, estimated then that government debt was 49% of GDP.

But at 58% the debt burden is still less than half that in crisis-stricken Greece and well below the UK, whose gross government debt is estimated at 92% for 2013 by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF's estimate for China is 23%.

Still, with debt rising and local government borrowing in particular seen as one of the biggest threats to the economy, analysts warned the new government that took over in 2012 needed to accelerate its reform programme.

"While China's total government debt remains low by the OECD standards, the pace of the rise is still alarming," ANZ economists Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao said in a research note, referring to the OECD group of countries where average government debt is estimated at 110%.

"This national debt audit result could indicate that China's local government debt almost doubled in about 2-1/2 years."

The NAO's finding that debts were much higher than in 2010 defied assurances from Beijing that local government debt levels had stabilised in recent years.

The state auditor highlighted risks such as heavy debt burdens in some unnamed regions and sectors as well and government dependence on land sales to repay loans.

"China's government debt risks are in general under control, but some areas have certain dangers," the report said.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist at Galaxy Securities in Beijing predicted the central government would now restrict the borrowing behaviours of local governments.

"Although current overall risks of local government debt are under control, risks would definitely increase sharply if the debt continues to rise so quickly," he was quoted as saying by Reuters.

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索罗斯的全文如下：


As 2013 comes to a close, efforts to revive growth in the world’s most influential economies – with the exception of the eurozone – are having a beneficial effect worldwide. All of the looming problems for the global economy are political in character.

After 25 years of stagnation, Japan is attempting to reinvigorate its economy by engaging in quantitative easing on an unprecedented scale. It is a risky experiment: faster growth could drive up interest rates, making debt-servicing costs unsustainable. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would rather take that risk than condemn Japan to a slow death. And, judging from the public’s enthusiastic support, so would ordinary Japanese.

By contrast, the European Union is heading toward the type of long-lasting stagnation from which Japan is desperate to escape. The stakes are high: Nation-states can survive a lost decade or more; but the EU, an incomplete association of nation-states, could easily be destroyed by it.

The euro’s design – which was modeled on the Deutsche Mark – has a fatal flaw. Creating a common central bank without a common treasury means that government debts are denominated in a currency that no single member country controls, making them subject to the risk of default. As a consequence of the crash of 2008, several member countries became over indebted, and risk premia made the eurozone’s division into creditor and debtor countries permanent.

This defect could have been corrected by replacing individual countries’ bonds with Eurobonds. Unfortunately, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, reflecting the radical change that Germans’ attitudes toward European integration have undergone, ruled that out. Prior to reunification, Germany was the main motor of integration; now, weighed down by reunification’s costs, German taxpayers are determined to avoid becoming European debtors’ deep pocket.

After the crash of 2008, Merkel insisted that each country should look after its own financial institutions and government debts should be paid in full. Without realizing it, Germany is repeating the tragic error of the French after World War I. Prime Minister Aristide Briand’s insistence on reparations led to the rise of Hitler; Angela Merkel’s policies are giving rise to extremist movements in the rest of Europe.

The current arrangements governing the euro are here to stay, because Germany will always do the bare minimum to preserve the common currency – and because the markets and the European authorities would punish any other country that challenged these arrangements. Nonetheless, the acute phase of the financial crisis is now over. The European financial authorities have tacitly recognized that austerity is counterproductive and have stopped imposing additional fiscal constraints. This has given the debtor countries some breathing room, and, even in the absence of any growth prospects, financial markets have stabilized.

Future crises will be political in origin. Indeed, this is already apparent, because the EU has become so inward-looking that it cannot adequately respond to external threats, be they in Syria or Ukraine. But the outlook is far from hopeless; the revival of a threat from Russia may reverse the prevailing trend toward European disintegration.

As a result, the crisis has transformed the EU from the “fantastic object” that inspired enthusiasm into something radically different. What was meant to be a voluntary association of equal states that sacrificed part of their sovereignty for the common good – the embodiment of the principles of an open society – has now been transformed by the euro crisis into a relationship between creditor and debtor countries that is neither voluntary nor equal. Indeed, the euro could destroy the EU altogether.

In contrast to Europe, the United States is emerging as the developed world’s strongest economy. Shale energy has given the US an important competitive advantage in manufacturing in general and in petrochemicals in particular. The banking and household sectors have made some progress in deleveraging. Quantitative easing has boosted asset values. And the housing market has improved, with construction lowering unemployment. The fiscal drag exerted by sequestration is also about to expire.

More surprising, the polarization of American politics shows signs of reversing. The two-party system worked reasonably well for two centuries, because both parties had to compete for the middle ground in general elections. Then the Republican Party was captured by a coalition of religious and market fundamentalists, later reinforced by neo-conservatives, that moved it to a far-right extreme. The Democrats tried to catch up in order to capture the middle ground, and both parties colluded in gerrymandering Congressional districts. As a consequence, activist-dominated party primaries took precedence over general elections.

That completed the polarization of American politics. Eventually, the Republican Party’s Tea Party wing overplayed its hand. After the recent debacle of the government shutdown, what remains of the Republican establishment has begun fighting back, and this should lead to a revival of the two-party system.

The major uncertainty facing the world today is not the euro but the future direction of China. The growth model responsible for its rapid rise has run out of steam.

That model depended on financial repression of the household sector, in order to drive the growth of exports and investments. As a result, the household sector has now shrunk to 35% of GDP, and its forced savings are no longer sufficient to finance the current growth model. This has led to an exponential rise in the use of various forms of debt financing.

There are some eerie resemblances with the financial conditions that prevailed in the US in the years preceding the crash of 2008. But there is a significant difference, too. In the US, financial markets tend to dominate politics; in China, the state owns the banks and the bulk of the economy, and the Communist Party controls the state-owned enterprises.

Aware of the dangers, the People’s Bank of China took steps starting in 2012 to curb the growth of debt; but when the slowdown started to cause real distress in the economy, the Party asserted its supremacy. In July 2013, the leadership ordered the steel industry to restart the furnaces and the PBOC to ease credit. The economy turned around on a dime. In November, the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee announced far-reaching reforms. These developments are largely responsible for the recent improvement in the global outlook.

The Chinese leadership was right to give precedence to economic growth over structural reforms, because structural reforms, when combined with fiscal austerity, push economies into a deflationary tailspin. But there is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies: restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years.

How and when this contradiction will be resolved will have profound consequences for China and the world. A successful transition in China will most likely entail political as well as economic reforms, while failure would undermine still-widespread trust in the country’s political leadership, resulting in repression at home and military confrontation abroad.

The other great unresolved problem is the absence of proper global governance. The lack of agreement among the United Nations Security Council’s five permanent members is exacerbating humanitarian catastrophes in countries like Syria – not to mention allowing global warming to proceed largely unhindered. But, in contrast to the Chinese conundrum, which will come to a head in the next few years, the absence of global governance may continue indefinitely.

2013: Reversing Gears is available in the Kindle store and on iBooks.

http://www.project-syndicate.org ... gly-shaped-by-china




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这篇文章的预测的前提条件是人民币必须走强。什么货币走弱将导致国家崩溃。实际的情况是各国在废除金本位以后都在实行货币走弱的经济政策。这篇文章应该改称全世界人群体债务沉重，2014年将迎来破产倒闭潮。2014世界末日！


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LZ，你再成天看这样的文章，容易抑郁症的啊

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红朝现在才六七十年，哪会那么快就完了？
不算乱世，中国历史上的大王朝中秦隋二朝没超过40年，只要没有流民，很难垮。
民国算乱世，不能算大朝。

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中国再繁荣十年没问题，大家赶快回去，要不又错过一轮捞钱机会，十年后空悲叹。

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索罗斯老矣，老是用旧眼光去看新世界。是他讲的那样，世界就不要变了。试问一句，要是你在澳洲有房子，你希望房价跌吗？

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这些背后有利益驱动者发布的言论还是要小心呀。
澳洲中文论坛热点