这是在http://www.fool.com.au/2015/05/2 ... -from-ben-bernanke/ 网站看到。比The Australian和AFR报道的要直接，易读。有评论，也有价值。供参考，我没有时间翻译。
3 critical lessons from Ben Bernanke
Ben Bernanke was one of the most powerful people in the world, serving as the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
That meant Bernanke had to be extremely careful choosing his words. His slightest utterance could send markets into a panic. But Bernanke stepped down from his chairman role last year.
Now that he is finally free to say what he wants, what would he say? When we heard he was speaking at the World Business Forum in Sydney yesterday we had to go to find out. Here are the highlights from his presentation, and why they matter to Aussie investors:
On getting subprime wrong:
“Subprime mortgages were a small asset class. We calculated that if all subprime mortgages went bad on the same day it would have only been the size of a bad day on the stock market. The problem was how fragile the system had become.”
[Foolish takeaway: If there is one big, huge, unmistakable lesson to take away from Bernanke’s presentation, this was it. The Federal Reserve had not just considered the risk from subprime mortgages, they had thoroughly analysed it. And yet, they still determined that there was no chance that subprime mortgage defaults could cause a crisis.
That’s like finding a red-back spider on your pillow, squinting at it for a bit, turning on a light to get a better look, then deciding that something so small couldn’t possibly hurt you, and rolling over and going back to sleep.
Of course, as we now know, that judgement was terribly misguided. The lesson: In today’s interconnected world, even small problems can have huge ripple effects.]
On China’s slowdown:
Bernanke was asked if he thought China’s growth would slow. He responded that a slowdown in China was “inevitable” and that the current growth model was unsustainable:
“China can no longer grow through its old model of construction, heavy industry and exports. The economy needs to move toward consumption. They are making progress towards that. The move away from command and control is difficult”
“There are risks in the Chinese system of a hard landing. For example, Chinese banks have significantly increased credit, and a lot of those loans are not very good loans.”
Bernanke went on to explain that despite the risk he still feels that a hard landing is a “low probability” because the Chinese government’s control of the economy should enable it to aggressively intervene if needed.
[Foolish takeaway: Joe Magyer and I visited China at the start of the year. We came away convinced that China was on an unsustainable path, and that the debt-fuelled growth model would not end well. So there are no arguments from us!
We are less confident though that the probability of a hard landing is low. The Chinese government does wield formidable powers. But as we saw with the subprime crisis, even problems that seem small and containable at first can quickly spiral out of control.
The lesson for Aussie investors: China’s growth model is unsustainable. The mining industry, which has been propped up by China’s construction boom should be treated with extreme caution.]
On the potential for housing and stock market bubbles:
“The Central Bank’s point of view is not asking ‘are asset prices where they should be?’ That concern is for investors. Our concern (as the Central Bank) is whether there is a threat to the financial system.
I don’t see anything that looks like the tech bubble, or other past bubbles, nothing that looks like it could threaten the system”
[Foolish takeaway: In Bernanke’s view, it’s not the Federal Reserve’s job to worry about whether asset prices are too high, that is a concern for investors. The only concern for the Central Bank is whether there is a risk to the system itself. Given that the last two major U.S. recessions were caused by asset price bubbles, that dichotomy is debatable.
But either way, the lesson for investors is clear. Don’t expect the Central Bank to save you from the market becoming overvalued. That responsibility sits with you. And as your Advisors at The Motley Fool, with us. The secret, as always, is remaining patient and investing in great businesses only when they are available at fair prices.]
On the Aussie dollar:
“If Australia finds it has a strong Australian dollar and it has higher unemployment, then it would have to respond and that would either be by increasing domestic demand or by weakening its own currency”
[Foolish takeaway: There should be no surprises here, but it is worth remembering. If the Aussie economy continues to struggle there is only one way that interest rates and the Aussie dollar are heading. Down.]
On moves to tackle the Aussie housing bubble:
“In Australia, the UK and other Commonwealth countries (they) are being particularly good at using various kinds of prudential policies to address concerns about housing prices, so I think that’s the best approach.”
[Foolish takeaway: Bernanke thought Australia’s move toward macroprudential policies were a step in the right direction. After much nudging from the RBA, several Aussie banks have moved to slow the growth of their loans to property investors in recent months. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA), the country’s biggest lender moved to remove discounts for investment home loans, and its subsidiary, Bankwest, implemented a maximum loan-to-value ratio of 80 percent for investment loans. National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ) have also moved to scrap discounts for new property investor customers.
The measures seem to make a lot of sense to us, and its always good to hear an expert of Bernanke’s calibre say you are on the right path. Although given the current level of property prices in major Australian cities, it’s worth asking if those initiatives are too little, too late.]
Bernanke’s lessons
Ben Bernanke’s presentation provided clear lessons for Aussie investors. China’s slowdown is inevitable. Problems in small sectors of the economy (just like subprime mortgages) can quickly spiral into big problems for the whole system. It is our job as investors, not the Central Bank’s, to be on guard against asset price bubbles (Sydney house prices anyone?).
With the mining boom fast turning in to the mining crash, capital expenditure falling, and unemployment rising, Bernanke’s visit to Australia could not have come at a better time.
Yet despite Bernanke’s presentation being so applicable to Australia today, it seemed like a lot of his lessons from the crisis were falling on deaf ears. By the time he had finished talking many in the audience had already left to beat the rush-hour home. Or perhaps they wanted to be first in line for five-o’clock beers.
She’ll be right, mate.
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不错的文章。只是对于经济有一定程度了解的人，这只是常识而已。
真正有价值的东西，如美国的长期战略之类的，都是没有提到，也不可能提。
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一个字:跌
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没人看啊
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说的很中肯,真是一篇很好的文章.
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美联储的高官往往在下台后， 所说所讲的才客观，尖锐和说到点子上了。 前前主席格林斯潘最近处说演讲， 美国的3次QE对挽救经济作用不大，相反推升了资产泡沫。 再怎么降息都作用不大， 钱都没有流入实体经济， 这样发展下去是不行的！
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不都是他干的？！
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格林斯潘是QE1的始作俑者， 他在位是官员，退下来了， 更像是经济学家。 也许，身在其位，身不由己吧
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所以别听他们废话，上台都一样。
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请您有时间给翻译一下吧！俺们看不懂
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他说的对不对，只能看将来的发展结果来定论， 2年内就能看出来
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说的都对，但是还是靠台上的人来做啊。
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fat cat
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美国次级债不是因为恐慌小题大做引发金融危机，而是次级债被层层打包资产证券化，高风险资产被放大N倍，所以次级债才会引发危机.
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大致对。实际上要复杂很多。
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就是说 中国经济走低是必然的，目前靠投资得到的GDP是不可持续的，必然会转向国内消费型。 但是硬着陆的可能性也不大。因为政府控制力度太强大。
澳洲经济靠中国投资带动起来的资源出口红利会低迷很久，澳洲要小心这点。 如果澳洲经济一直低迷，那么澳币跟利率不可避免的会一路走低。
房价是否泡沫太高，不是央行考虑的问题，是投资者考虑的。 央行只考虑是否会对金融系统造成冲击。
总结就是大环境来说，澳洲目前的辉煌模式可能不再有了，中国红利很难得到了，经济可能会长期低迷， 那么澳币和利率都很难走高。 房地产也不可避免的会不断冲高。 但是什么时候对金融系统造成威胁的时候，政府才会出手干预，至少目前没有什么威胁，也就是政府不太可能会真正的去抑制房价增长。
一句话，房价要涨。
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前边铺垫太多，说最后四字即可，此处绝无贬义，人家说的是实话。
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对的。
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权威的宏观经济学课本都有：
Andrew B. Abel, Ben S. Bernanke and Dean Croushore, "Macroeconomics, " Prentice Hall; 7th ed. 2011
N. Gregory Mankiw, "Principles of Macroeconomics," South-Western College Pub; 7 ed. 2010
第一本比较难懂一些。
1) Henry M. Paulson, "On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System," Hachette Book Group, 2010
2) Sheila Bair, "Bull by the Horns, " Free Press, 2012.
两本在重要位置上的官员实录。
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基本不错。只是房价要涨？
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前边总结的还好，最后这几句是夹带私货吧？
[Foolish takeaway: In Bernanke’s view, it’s not the Federal Reserve’s job to worry about whether asset prices are too high, that is a concern for investors. The only concern for the Central Bank is whether there is a risk to the system itself. Given that the last two major U.S. recessions were caused by asset price bubbles, that dichotomy is debatable.
But either way, the lesson for investors is clear. Don’t expect the Central Bank to save you from the market becoming overvalued. That responsibility sits with you. And as your Advisors at The Motley Fool, with us. The secret, as always, is remaining patient and investing in great businesses only when they are available at fair prices.]
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好，谢谢啊！我也是道听途说啊，没仔细研究过。不过，我一直对华尔街的金融创新比较反感，越做越背离实体经济，真的就是金融游戏啊！
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花儿街本来就是虚拟经济,他们近些年在金融体系上的一系列"创新"增加了整个金融系统的风险,最后造成了08年的金融危机
你看看过去20年,有多少花儿街的高管涉嫌各种非法行为,给国家和民众造成了成白上千亿的损失,而对比高科技产业,Apple,Google这种高科技企业,你听过谁因为从事非法活动判刑的?
花儿街本质上是服务业,只不过他们把自己的利益摆在客户之上而已
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通篇看完
总结一下 澳洲房价要涨。。。。。
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华尔街还是有它的功用的。要懂得它的功用，需要先学经济学入门，然后学好中级宏观经济学，这样才会初步懂得华尔街是干什么的。即便大公司，也有与华尔街相似的 Corporate Finance。没有这些金融工作，整个经济基本无法运转。
况且华尔街里的大多数人是好的。现在的问题是如何立法尽可能防止大问题。小问题基本可以防范。
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