2012年10月，我瞎猫撞到死老鼠，刚好美帝Archer Daniels Midland Co's (ADM)溢价40%收购GNC, 让我意外获利45%，至今恋恋不忘 。自那以后GNC的绯闻不断（有兴趣的可以查看这两年来它的故事），不过我已获利了结没有再碰过，现在我又有点蠢蠢欲动了。虽然这次还是希望ADM卷土重来，但也清楚近期这种可能性不大。对于操作这种成熟的澳洲垄断性行业龙头公司，看报表分析行业基本面很重要，这正是我欠缺的。所以发帖，请善于分析报表大师们给于指点，谢谢！
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貌似一年半前ADM就要收购，不过有个澳洲股东反对，现在可以了么？
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股东通过收购案，政府否决。这方面的旧闻铺天盖地，你可以再看看, 最好能从2012年8月开始看它的旧闻。
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我喜欢elders
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在澳洲农业股板块，我的初步持股计划（仅农业股）是：GNC 50% 带止盈止损；AAC 35% 带很宽的止盈止损；ELD 15% 完全不带止盈止损。它们同属农牧业，但公司状况不同股性差别很大，这很正常，只是我们持股人要根据它们各自的特点制定操作方案，没有必要把这些股对立起来，它们都会波动，操作好了都可以盈利。个人偏好，不足挂齿。
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今天开始读GNC的2013 Annual Report， 没看几页就头昏眼花，字面意思都不是吃得很准，更别提分析了。大师们帮帮忙吧，用通俗语言讲解讲解，先谢了！
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Gold, Iron ore, Oil, Copper, the next will be agricultural products. You know the story.
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thank you for your advice, i know Australian agricultural products will benefit from free trade agreement with Asia, but GNC challenge the limit of my endurance，it drives me crazy.
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吸筹这个过程不是一般散户能做的，楼主大户啊。
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"大户", 装的
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哈哈，能专注盯住个股已经是高手的啦。
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The big picture is that western power(s) are going down hill. A well known, and often successful remedy for their economical malaises used to be war. But this does not work any longer, as demonstrated by recent wars in Iraq, Afgan, etc. So they are using a different approach now, ie, economic war. They drive up their currency, and drive down commodity prices one by one. They will then buy the discounted commodities with their inflated currency. For them, this is much more cost-effective than military intervention.
I am certain that sometime later they will say their currency is over-valued by the markets, so their currency will go down, commodity will go up. Alternatively, they may say world population growth and urburn development will need huge amounts of commodities, and naturally commodity prices will go up too. Then, they will sell the commodities they bought cheaply, making enormous profits. Sometime further down the track, they may say their currency is under-valued and so the currency will go up and commodities will go down. Here comes another cycle of commodity boom and bust.
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I can't agree with you any more.
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It is not clear if you agree or disagree?
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sorry, typing mistake, I can't agree with you more.
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Could we benefit from "They drive up their currency, and drive down commodity prices one by one. They will then buy the discounted commodities with their inflated currency. For them, this is much more cost-effective than military intervention"? I'm a greedy guy.
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看看蜂蜜，干果之类的。
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A lot of people are doing this, ie, they sell their shares now, and hope to buy them cheaper later. That is why you see most resource-heavy markets are down around the world. But you need to keep an eye to buy the shares back (when the prices reach your targets). Otherwise, you'll end up being empty-handed.
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conspiracy theory
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惭愧呀，多动症，没耐性。
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