Australia & NZ Morning Thoughts.
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The US dollar fell again, this time consistent with a weaker batch of US data. Durable goods orders, jobless claims, consumer confidence, the Chicago PMI and home sales all disappointed. The US dollar fell for a couple of hours before and after the data, rescuing the AUD from another poor performance. Iron ore fell 1.6% to a fresh five-year low. The S&P500 is currently up 0.1%
Market Wrap:
Global market sentiment: The US dollar fell again, this time consistent with a weaker batch of US data. Durable goods orders, jobless claims, consumer confidence, the Chicago PMI and home sales all disappointed. The US dollar fell for a couple of hours before and after the data, rescuing the AUD from another poor performance. Iron ore fell 1.6% to a fresh five-year low. The S&P500 is currently up 0.1%
Interest rates: US treasury yields fell, the 10yr falling from 2.26% to 2.23%, and the 2yr down from 0.52% to 0.50%. The 7yr auction was awarded at 0.5bp above pre-auction market yield.
Australian 3yr government bond future yields fell from 2.46% to 2.43%, while 10yr yields ranged between 3.15% and 3.17%.
Currencies: The US dollar index started falling from around midday London. EUR bounced then from 1.2444 to 1.2532. The ECB’s Constancio said it is taking a wait and see approach to the current measures, but also that it is prepared to buy government bonds if necessary. USD/JPY drifted lower from 117.90 to 117.44. AUD fell sharply early London, from 0.8565 to 0.8480 (fresh four-year low), but recovered to 0.8550 as the US dollar weakened. NZD bounced off 0.7803 to 0.7893. AUD/NZD fell throughout the evening, from 1.0920 to 1.0820 – a four-month low.
Economic Wrap:
The U.S. durables report proved modestly disappointing, given weak equipment figures alongside a headline orders rise that reflected a bigger than expected boost from transportation and defense orders despite declines for vehicle assemblies and orders at Boeing. We saw an undershoot for the ex-transportation orders data, and only small October shipments and inventory gains
U.S. initial jobless claims rose from 291k to 313k (median estimate was 288k). Claims remain above the particularly tight 266k cycle-low from early October.
U.S. personal income report revealed moderate October income and spending gains that undershot estimates, following revisions that were downward for income in both Q2 and Q3, but upward for spending in Q3,
U.S. Michigan Univ. consumer sentiment was revised lower to 88.8 (from 89.4).
U.S. new home sales rose by a disappointing 458k in October which left a new cycle-high thanks only to big downward Q3 revisions that eliminated the prior cycle-high in September. We now have Q3 rates of 455k (was 467k) in September, 453k (was 466k) in August and 399k (was 404k) in July. The median price soared 16.5% in October however to a new all-time high of $305k, while inventories climbed to a four-year high of 212k.
Market Outlooks:
Event risk today: NZ has the trade balance, usually only a minor market mover. More important will be Australia’s Q3 CAPEX report. There’s Eurozone sentiment data tonight but nothing from the US given the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
AUD/USD 1 day: 0.8480 support is vulnerable, with CAPEX a major risk event today.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: By early 2015, markets should start pricing in an RBA tightening cycle (we expect the first hike to be in August 2015) which should boost the AUD, although Fed tightening expectations will be an offset. We also expect iron ore prices to stage a rebound, which would be AUD-supportive.
NZD/USD 1 day: In contrast to the AUD, on a more neutral footing, the day’s range 0.7800-0.7950.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: Until inflation appears and dairy prices start rising, we see potential for a sustained break below the key 0.7700 area, then targeting 0.7500.
AUD/NZD 1 day: The sustained and sharp break below major support at 1.0920 last night imparts a negative bias today.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: Despite the correction since September, it appears a multi-year reversal in the cross probably began in January at 1.0493. The RBNZ is probably on hold until at least September 2015, while the market has yet to start pricing in an RBA tightening cycle which should launch in August 2015. However, cyclical reversals are often messy affairs, and this one is so far proving no exception. It needs to break above the 1.1280-1.1310 area to confirm a larger rise above 1.16.
AU swap yields 1 day: In response to movement in Australian bond futures overnight the 2yr should open around 2.67%, while the 10yr should open around 3.56%.
AU swap yields 1-3 month: Yield support for the 2yr around 2.60% is holding but remains vulnerable. The 10yr remains under downward pressure as global yields continue to fall. By early 2015, though, we would expect markets to start pricing in RBA tightening, pushing swap yields higher.
NZ swap yields 1 day: Given movements in US and AU yields overnight, NZ yields should open slightly lower, the 2yr down 1bp at 3.87%, and the 10yr down 1bp at 4.37%.
NZ swap yields 1-3 month: NZ interest rates are likely to remain depressed during the next few months, the RBNZ’s switch to an almost neutral bias plus inflation threatening the bottom of the target band likely to result in the RBNZ on hold until at least Sep-2015. That should see the 2yr test 3.87% yield support, a break then taking it to around 2.75%. The 10yr targets 4.20% below as long as the US treasury bond rally (which started in January) continues.
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