欢迎大家分享各自的分析，当然也欢迎加分捧场～
*Y102.39/47 11 Jun high, 50% of Y104.12-100.82
*Y102.25/30 System stops
*Y102.20 Medium offers (Y102.13/20 - 100-day ma, 7 Jul high)
*Y102.10 System stops
*Y102.00 Offers on approach
*Y101.89/95 55 & 200-day ma's
*Y101.80 Medium offers, stops (61.8% of Y102.27-101.06)
*Y101.74 ***Current mkt rate 0511GMT Wednesday
*Y101.66 Asia low
*Y101.50 Medium demand (Y101.52 - 5-day ma)
*Y101.41/32 Prev hourly res now supp, 14 Jul low
*Y101.20 Strong demand, stops (Y101.21 - 11 Jul low)
*Y101.10/06 55-week ma, 10 Jul low
*Y101.00 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
*Y100.80 Strong demand (Y100.82 - 21 May low)
个人短期看涨USDJPY。
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顶贴的时候也可以加分啊：P
The pair has an air of déjà vu about it. Some risk off event always seems to happen in the mid 101’s which forces people to get short, then fizzles and we get a little move higher. Or maybe it’s just that we are mired on a 101 handle. A lot of US data on the calendar today so maybe we can gain some traction following yesterday’s mild USD rally. 102.25 remains pivotal above.
Resistance: 102.05, 102.25
Support: 101.10, 101.40
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USDJPY remains an incredibly subdued pair with another staggeringly tight 11 pip range in Asia. The broad USD buying following yesterday’s balanced testimony from Yellen suggests this market still has an appetite to buy USD in anticipation of the eventual move higher in US yields and USDJPY has been a marginal beneficiary of that. Given the consolidation back above 101.50-55 and baring some dramatic change of tack in Yellen’s testimony to the House the chances of the position wash out below 100.80 I was looking for have been materially reduced. That said we are not about to explode to the topside either. USDJPY is awash with gamma and good two interest form a variety of accounts which, when taken in conjunction with the reduced volatility, strongly suggests another day of trading within the ranges. On the day I like buying USDJPY back toward 101.55 but selling and flipping short ahead of 102.00. Hardly inspiring stuff I admit but that’s all we have in JPY for now.
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I remain long USDJPY and will only look to cut back through 101.20, looking for a break of 102.30 and move above 102.50.
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小心
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谢谢提醒，轻仓简行，但是方向不变：P
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丁总，你忙于开张生意，自己交易单开得小一点，只要够pay rent 和生活开支就可，注意身体，
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*Y102.39/47 11 Jun high, 50% of Y104.12-100.82
*Y102.25/30 System stops
*Y102.20 Medium offers (Y102.13/20 - 100-day ma, 7 Jul high)
*Y102.10 System stops
*Y102.00 Offers on approach
*Y101.89/95 55 & 200-day ma's
*Y101.80 Medium offers, stops (61.8% of Y102.27-101.06)
*Y101.69 ***Current mkt rate 0942GMT Wednesday
*Y101.63 Intraday low
*Y101.50 Medium demand (Y101.51 - 5-day ma)
*Y101.41/32 Prev hourly res now supp, 14 Jul low
*Y101.20 Strong demand, stops (Y101.21 - 11 Jul low)
*Y101.10/06 55-week ma, 10 Jul low
*Y101.00 Demand on approach, barrier, stops
*Y100.80 Strong demand (Y100.82 - 21 May low)
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USDJPY: 低 交易量, 偏51% 于 买盘 (从7:00 EST开始无偏)
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traders still playing this range , it’s like a habbit for some months now. Upside will likely be capped by sellers around 102.30 or 102.70. The price is expected to re-visit 101.30 soon to fill a gap left there some days ago. Don’t make plans for a major upside breakout just yet.
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JPY complex traded lower in Asia with follow-through to the upside lacking and the pullback in the
Nikkei following early gains weighing on sentiment. Longs chose to shed positions. In USD/JPY, options provided gravitational
pull with large-ish 101.50-60 strikes due to expire. From 101.70, it fell to 101.51. Offers from Japanese exporters
remain at 101.80 and trail up. Stops are mixed in above 101.80 and 102.00. US names and Japanese importers have
bids from 101.50. Stops are eyed sub-101.00. More large option expiries are eyed today at 101.90. EUR/JPY edged
down slowly from 137.53 to 137.34 and many now see tests towards the 136.25 low of the year on February 4. GBP/
JPY fell back a bit more from 174.26 to 173.91 despite the still bullish tone. AUD/JPY moved down from 95.23 to 94.93,
towards the top of its Ichimoku cloud at 94.87 and yesterday’s 94.86 low. NZD/JPY was the worst hit, off from 88.61 to
88.13 as more longs bailed on shifting central bank expectations post-CPI yesterday. MoF flow data suggested dips in
many pairs last week drew out many buyers.
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高盛看多USDJPY，止损101.20下方。
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Yen traders debate how Asia will react to the day's events and if
this might mean new yen buying. Dollar-yen, at Y101.18, after trading in roughly
a Y101.20-30 range for over 2 hours, has finally broken below Y101.20 to post a
low of Y101.14, with some stops kicking in. The focus now is on the 55-week
moving average, which comes in at Y101.10 and the Y101.07 low from July 10.
There is strong demand ahead of Y101, where there is a barrier. Larger support
is seen in the Y100.75-85 zone, which contains the May 21 low at Y100.82 and the
2014 low of Y100.76, seen Feb 4. Larger stops are expected on a sub Y100.75
break
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谢谢加分：）
EURJPY关注136.20/25，USDJPY关注100.70/80，AUDJPY关注200DMA 93.73
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谢谢加分：）
EURJPY
The cross traded a low of Y136.71 so far this morning, its lowest
since Feb 5, as risk aversion spikes after last night's developments in Ukraine
and Gaza. Euro-yen last at Y136.3, a few minutes after the BOJ minutes, with a
break below Y136.55 likely to encourage further losses, although there has been
reported demand at Y136.50 and stops below, with a break there to see the cross
take on the 2014 low of Y136.22 traded on Feb. 4.
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UsdJpy touched 101.09 prior to Tokyo open and many traders saw bids planted in the main platform down to 101.05. UsdJpy started to move higher – we saw 2 of the major Japanese banks purchasing dollars from low teens into 101.20’s. Most of the Tokyo guys want to sell UsdJpy into 101.30’s and guess what? High so far 101.305! There are plenty of talks about who is on the bid or who did the buying and you will hear names like Kampo and Yucho. Into mid-morning, risk appetite improved; Nikkei pared losses and UsdJpy returned to print new highs.
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The old risk on/off paradigm has come back into play over the past 24 hrs, galvanised by the tragic news late yesterday afternoon regarding the Malaysia airline flight over Ukraine. With details remaining very vague surrounding the incident, markets open the London session on a very nervous tone, with the majors hovering above pivotal levels, most notable EURUSD and USDJPY. Three genuine attempts at the 101.00 level since the end of June have now failed, however an escalation of the geo-political situation over the coming days leaves an air of inevitability about the outcome. We have closed our long USDJPY cash position given the recent events, leaving ourselves in a position to react to future developments. The key support below rest in the 101.00-100.70 band, which if broken opens up the psychological 100.00 level and a real threat for further capitulation lower.
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汇价自亚市低点101.09开始的反弹或高度有限，位於101.44的阻力将打压汇价。101.44是101.79-101.09跌势的50%回档。短期来看，仍是空头在掌控者市场；若汇价回落至101.26、101.15下方，则101.06/101.09低点支持将再次回到市场焦点。只有有效上破101.44阻力才有可能令目前的反弹动能增强，届时汇价可能测试101.79高点。
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JPY Strength on the Crosses. Bullish. Watch: Leading Index, Trade Balance, CPI.
We expect JPY to remain supported, especially on the crosses, and expect USD/JPY to move down to 98 in the coming months. USD/JPY has been trading within tighter ranges, forming a triangle, which if it breaks, sends bearish JPY signals. Our economists expect the BoJ to ease in October; however, until then the likelihood is low, keeping JPY supported. JPY should also receive support as the broader risk environment starts to face challenges from higher global yields.
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Given the current environment and inevitable move in JPY on a sharp risk off move, currently short USDJPY, looking to re-assess on a move back above 101.75-80 – the level which has capped us last week with good gamma and exporter supply.
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A softish inflation print in the US last night but the pair didn’t really react. BOJ deputy governor Nakaso states that the end of deflation is in sight, but again no reaction from the pair. I would deduce from recent price action that positioning in the pair is fairly light, given there is so much going on elsewhere in the G-10 space. I have therefore initiated a small long conviction as the lack of focus on the pair could lead to it sneaking higher. The bids lower seem robust and aren’t going away.
Resistance: 101.80, 102.25
Support: 101.10, 100.80
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The levels on the topside remain the same with 101.75-85 broadly capping the recent range and the all-important 101.00 providing the support.
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*Y102.39/47 11 Jun high, 50% of Y104.12-100.82
*Y102.27 Post NFP spike high 3 Jul
*Y102.20 Medium offers
*Y102.10/15 System stops
*Y102.05/08 100 & 200-day ma's
*Y102.00 Exporter offers, stops (Y101.94 - 25 Jul high)
*Y101.85/90 Strong offers (Y101.86 - Asia high)
*Y101.81 ***Current mkt rate 0515GMT Monday
*Y101.75/71 Asia & 25 Jul lows
*Y101.68/61 5 & 21-day ma's
*Y101.50 Demand on approach (Y101.51 - 50% of Y101.09-101.94)
*Y101.42/32 24 & 23 Jul lows
*Y101.20 Medium demand (21 Jul low)
*Y101.16/09 55-week ma, 17 Jul low
*Y101.00 Semi-official demand on approach, barrier, stops
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Demand from Japanese investors and weak/mixed data (jobs/retail sales) helped USDJPY grind through exporter offers and trade just shy of 102.00 overnight. Yesterday I flipped long USDJPY in expectation of broad USD buying into the GDP and FoMC tomorrow and of course Friday's jobs numbers. I stick with that long USD view although I accept moves above 102.00 will seem like even more of a grind than the one to get here. I am still looking for the pair to trade 102.20 and potentially 102.40 ahead of Friday's numbers. That said given the event risk before then, with GDP likely much more significant than the FED, I will be cautious and raise my stop to 101.65 for half my position and leave the remaining 50% at 1.01.50. We are still range bound so it's tough to get excited but there are perhaps signs things are starting to change.
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ANZ: The reason for JPY strength in August is due to a rise in Japanese investment income repatriation flows from their offshore debt holdings, principally those issued by the US government. In August this year, interest payments from US government debt will total USD42.7bn, of which roughly 19% is estimated to flow to Japanese investors (around USD8bn). August also happens to be the quietest periods in the FX market due to the northern hemisphere summer, which amplifies the flow effect
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GS：Here we have also cut our positioning, with levels to watch: Support at 105.5 (stops located here), with resistance at 107.
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