在新西兰
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/ ... rket-gains-expected
Property investors expect the heated Auckland market to reach new heights next year, fuelled by low interest rates and demand from foreign investors and migrants.
House sales volumes in the country's biggest city bounced back strongly in November after showing signs of a slowdown.
Andrew Bruce, president of the Auckland Property Investors Association, said that was due to a resurgence in confidence after the election, with a capital gains tax no longer looming.
House prices in November also continued to rise at what valuer QV called an "eye-watering" pace, with the average price reaching $748,955.
Residential property prices were up 9.3 per cent in Auckland over the past year, and Bruce said he expected the market to keep rising.
"I don't see it racing ahead, but I do still see it moving forward," he said.
Bruce said there was an imbalance between supply and demand, which was always going to create pricing issues.
Demand for housing was being driven by an influx of migrants, combined with interest rates now expected to remain lower for longer.
But there was also a shortage of available housing, Bruce said.
"I know there's a lot of talk about these special housing areas ... but we've still got to see those houses actually being built."
Bruce said investors were keenly focused on the Reserve Bank's next move with loan-to-value ratio (LVR) limits, as well as other regulations it has proposed.
"At the moment we're all really just second-guessing what the Reserve Bank governor is going to do there," he said.
Ron Hoy Fong, an Auckland property coach with a portfolio of more than 30 properties, said prices would go "definitely upwards" next year.
Auckland was in the boom period of a normal property cycle of eight to 10 years, which would typically see values double from start to finish, he said.
Hoy Fong said prices still had at least another 35 per cent to climb, and would quite probably overshoot that mark.
The cycle would reach its peak around 2017, or slightly earlier for inner-city areas, he said.
Hoy Fong said he did not believe the Reserve Bank could stop the ascent of the Auckland market, as hard as it might try.
"They can stall it, delay it, but the property cycle is such that properties will still go up."
While the LVR limits had slowed the market,investors had benefited in other ways.
"It just gives us more time to buy more properties, because we're competing with a lot less homeowners," he said.
While cashflow positive or neutral properties remained hard to find in Auckland, Hoy Fong said he had told his students to instead focus on making capital gains in the central city suburbs.
New Zealand's free trade agreements and immigration restrictions with other countries meant New Zealand was becoming increasingly attractive to migrants and foreign investors, he said.
Those migrants tended to settle in the inner city, where there was little development underway and a shortage of housing supply, Hoy Fong said.
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oh yeah！！！
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oh yeah！！！
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oh yeah！！！
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oh yeah！！！
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说好的崩盘呢
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阿海，你的师傅 in euphoria. 再漲35%，奧克兰的平均房价就超过百万啦。
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恩，那多好啊
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天哪，真的是又涨了
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悲催了，啥时候才能等到机会抄底Takapuna！
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个人观点自住买家什么时候出手区别不大，因为你需要房子居住。要是投资的话我会选择观望，拿着现金等待机会。
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oh yeah！！！
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可是房价越等越贵，手里的现金越来越不值钱。投资房产还是要果断下决心啊！
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所以说是个人观点了。
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说好的腰斩呢
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坑爹