在新西兰
OCR直到2016年没必要再调？这轮经济高峰期已过？
NZIER says the economic recovery is past its peak and higher interest rates won't be needed until 2016
New Zealand's economic recovery has passed its peak and the Reserve Bank should delay any further interest rate hikes until 2016, according to the NZ Institute of Economic Research.
In its latest Quarterly Predictions report, NZIER said the pace of economic growth was slowing, and expected it to ease from 3.5% this year to 2.7% next year.
Rising interest rates were starting to bite and that was showing up in falling house prices and waning economic confidence indicators.
However a more gradual recovery would continue, NZIER said."While some parts of the economy are easing, there is also an underlying and gradual recovery underway.
70% of new jobs in Auckland
While hiring was improving, 70% of the new jobs created since the pre-recession highs had been in Auckland and 20% were in Canterbury, leaving 10% spread thinly around the rest of the country.
While job creation had surged in sectors like health and professional services, other sectors such as manufacturing were shedding workers.
"The rather lumpy and wobbly recovery, both in terms of speed and composition, means that this recovery is still elusive to many industries and regions," NZIER said.
"This in part explains why inflation is still subdued and is likely to remain that way for some time."
Those trends suggested the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) should not raise interest rates again until 2016, NZIER said.
"The RBNZ has paused to assess and should not raise interest rates again until there is convincing evidence of strong and sustained economic growth and rising inflation to well over 2.5%.
'We do not see that happening until early 2016."
see :1)http://www.interest.co.nz/news/7 ... ont-be-needed-until
2)http://www.nzherald.co.nz/proper ... 8&objectid=11314651
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坐等纽币下跌？
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这几天跌了不少，对我不是好消息（我要卖纽币），可对别人是好消息（买纽币）---真是好坏参半！
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你干嘛要卖纽币啊
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也不是急着换。好现在就换，不好还可等直到明年一月底前了！
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这个NZIER 的chief economist就是那个彻底看空房地产的印度人， 这家伙连个自住房都没有。所以这个机构发表的观点我基本上忽略不看。
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我觉得除非12月加息 不然很难反弹太多
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今天看到这条新闻，我想怎么办啊，这楼市是快到头了又一个循环的开始了？
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有多房就上市，有多钱（贷款额度）就买进！
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Good! you make the rule simple.
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问题是上市卖了，这还不是又要买？
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当市场处于高位（或次高位）时，你卖了又买---你至少不会亏，你卖了先实现了利润（卖了房--兑现了利润还不少？）然后（大部分是卖的同时？）在市场中寻找你中意的房（有的是继续找投资房，有的是找更好的居住房）--卖了又买绝不亏(哪怕是高峰！---下一轮的低或次低谷？），卖了（手上有钱）不再投入（或不做事--那怕是对其它持有房装修，改建，扩建，分割）那就可能亏！---那你就不用卖了（说明房不多？---继续握住！）。总之有钱一定要让它动起来！（继续买进）有多房也要让它转起来！（从A君转到B君--千万不要觉的我说的越听越象哪位中介？）。
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对啊， 听这货的眼睛都要哭瞎了。
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当然不能期待 高位卖低位买，最多比如把东区的卖了去北岸，把中区的卖了去买个life style之类的，也许买卖不见得一定要涉及利益最大化，更多的时候我个人倾向于随意就好，有时候也许运气好就挣了，亏了也认命开心就好哈
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房子买卖费精力费钱，如果没有特别的理由，就不要频繁的交易了。
投资房最好长期持有
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长期持有绝对是最明智的，可惜，人性总是 爱折腾 哈哈
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所以啊， 克服了人性， 你就成了少数的赢家。
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艾玛，我没什么人性
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诸位一看就不是炒房族
炒房者，这时候要不计划破产，要不计划向开发商游行
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“长期持有绝对是最明智的”--同感！但你不能一次买个够---于是就存在“折腾”--就是继续的买或卖！---通过这样的”折腾“--于是就有（净）资产的倍增！(房产还是最好投资方式:http://money.china2au.com/realestate/2014-08-28/184959.shtml)