住在美国的保守派历史学家尼尔•弗格森周一在一次会议中警告中国想用贸易制裁惩罚澳洲，来警告亚洲国家不要批评不断扩大的影响力。
史坦福大学的胡佛研究所高级研究员弗格森先生在瑞银澳大拉西亚会议上说: “中国在试图惩罚澳洲，以儆效尤，特别是亚洲国家，如果你跟中国玩政治，会有严重的经济后果。”
他说: “这让澳洲处于一个困难的位置。”他指的是中国对澳洲出口进行越来越多的行动，包括牛肉，大麦，葡萄酒和木材。
弗格森先生说澳洲不想让自己“被迫默认中国的影响力行动，或者容忍中国政府在世界其他地方和本国所做的某些事情。”
他说，现在中国媒体中的某些方面对于澳洲发表的评论“真的令人愤怒”。
他说，澳洲政府比美国和其他政府有前瞻性，“看到中国的前进方向”并指出其在本国扩大影响力的问题。
弗格森先生曾担任共和党参议员约翰•麦凯恩在2008年的美国总统大选期间的顾问，并曾支持米特•罗姆尼在2012年竞选共和党总统候选人的活动。他表示，对于澳洲而言，”最重要“的是其对中国举动不要孤身作战，而是要寻求建立紧密联盟，包括与即将上任的拜登政府以及与日本和印度。
他说：“重要的是，新的拜登政府必须知道澳洲的态度。”
弗格森先生表示，他认为拜登政府对中国的批评会比奥巴马政府强烈的得多，而且比特朗普政府对盟国的需求更加敏感。
他说: “拜登政府不会令美国重新回到默许中国崛起的奥巴马时代”。
“美国将采取协调一致的努力，以确保在美国盟国之间团结对抗中国的挑战。”
他说，他认为印度今年已变得更加响应美国的对中国态度，而放弃了它以前不结盟立场，而日本也越来越关注中国在该地区的崛起，包括需要西方保持对中国科技公司的制裁。
他说，“对澳洲来说，关键的是不要孤立，第一次冷战就是通过结盟获胜的。”
他说，中国和美国之间以及与其他西方国家之间的新冷战“也将通过强大的联盟获胜。”
他说，澳洲在中国问题上要“坚持下去”，“帮助就在眼前。”
弗格森先生说随着台湾这个半独立岛屿拥有先进半导体技术，中国将来会把重点越来越多地放在台湾上。
“如果美国一不留神，中国能够迅雷不及掩耳之势收回台湾，那么对于整个跨太平洋联盟网络将是灾难性的。”
弗格森先生表示，美国政府对制裁公司拥有“强大的能力”。
他说，特朗普对包括华为在内的中国科技公司的制裁在控制中国崛起方面比他的贸易战要强大得多，贸易战在美国对中国的贸易逆差上影响不大。
他说，目前有很多科技企业在华府的游说者在呼吁美国与中国公司“取消技术战争”。
“我们到最后可能看到拜登政府在台湾等问题上继续冷战，包括增加对台湾的军事承诺，不过就不再进行技术战争和贸易战。”
“如果事情是这样，那么中国人会很开心的。”
“技术战争伤害了中国最脆弱的地方，而这正正是美国应该最努力追求的事情。”
弗格森先生说，如果拜登政府取消对中国公司的技术战争，包括放宽对中国技术巨头华为的制裁，“来换取减少碳排放的空洞承诺”，那么这是个“错误”。
US historian Niall Ferguson says Beijing is making an example of Australia as part of Cold War II
China wants to “ake an example of Australia” with trade sanctions to warn Asia countries not to criticise its expanding influence, US-based conservative historian Niall Ferguson warned at a conference on Monday.
“The Chinese are seeking to make an example of Australia to show other Asian countries in particular, if you tangle with China politically, there will be dire economic consequences,” Mr Ferguson, who is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, told the UBS Australasia conference.
“This puts Australia in a very difficult position,” he said referring to an increasing range of actions being taken by China against Australian exports including beef, barley, wine and timber.
Mr Ferguson said Australia did not want to find itself “coerced into acquiescing to Chinese influence operations or in tolerating some of the things that the Chinese government is doing elsewhere in the world and at home.”
He said some of the comments now being levelled at Australia from some elements of the Chinese media were “really outrageous”.
He said the Australian government had been ahead of many other governments including the US in “seeing where China was going” and pointing out its expanding influence operations in the country.
Mr Ferguson, who was an adviser to Republican Senator John McCain’s US presidential campaign in 2008 and supported Mitt Romney in his campaign for the Republican Party nomination for president in 2012, said it was “crucial” for Australia not to be isolated in its approach to China and to seek to make alliances including close ties with the incoming Biden administration as well as Japan and India.
“It will be important that the new Biden administration understands the Australian perspective,” he said.
Mr Ferguson said he felt the Biden administration would be much stronger in its criticism of China than the Obama administration and more sensitive to the needs of its allies than the Trump administration.
“The Biden administration is not going to roll over and return the US to the Obama era where the rise of China was acquiesced,” he said.
“There will be some concerted effort to make sure that there is unity amongst US allies with respect to the China challenge.”
He said he believed that India this year had become much more attuned to the US position on China, moving away from its position of nonalignment while Japan was also becoming more concerned about the rise of China in the region, including the need for the West to maintain sanctions on Chinese tech companies.
“The crucial thing for Australia is not to be isolated,” he said. “The first Cold War was won through alliances.”
He said the new Cold War between China and the US and other Western countries would “also be won through strong alliances.”
Australia should “hang in there” on China, he said. “Help is at hand.”
Mr Ferguson said there would be an increasing focus on Taiwan in the future with China eyeing the semi independent island given its superior semi conductor technology.
“If the US blinks and the Chinese were able to take back Taiwan with some lightning strike, it would be disastrous for the whole network of transpacific alliances.”
Mr Ferguson said the US administration had “powerful capabilities” in its ability to impose sanctions on companies.
He said Donald Trump’s sanctions on Chinese tech companies including Huawei had been far more powerful in containing the rise of China than his trade war which had made little difference to the US trade deficit with China.
He said there were plenty of lobbyists for tech companies currently in Washington urging the US to “call off the tech war” with Chinese companies.
“We could end up with the Biden administration keeping up the Cold War on issues like Taiwan including increasing its military commitment to Taiwan, but dialling back the tech war and the trade war.”
“If that is the way they go, the Chinese would be very delighted.”
“The tech war hurts China where it is most vulnerable and it is the thing the US should pursue most aggressively.”
Mr Ferguson said it would be a “mistake” if the Biden administration called off its tech war against Chinese companies including easing off its actions against Chinese tech giant Huawei “in return for empty pledges” about reducing its carbon emissions.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au ... bc65a511a5a2d8ec7cc
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澳洲冲冲冲，大哥在后面帮你呐喊助威。
中国的发展确实让这些保守历史学者很失落，必须想办法证明自己是正确的。
弗格森一直抱持西方文明优越论，当然容不得中国的发展挑战其观点。
还有日裔的福山，“历史的终结”的预言也被打脸。
美国的衰落是他们共同的心病。
其实问题的根源就是，中国人能不能生活的好一点，不要说跟美国人一样好，有美国人一半好行不行？
即使是这样这样的前景也让美国保守派胆战心惊，因为那意味着中国的经济总量是美国的两倍。
可中国人就是有强烈的愿望要过好日子，怎么办呢
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这冷战主义手电筒用的真好，光照着别人不照自己
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他说，澳洲在中国问题上要“坚持下去”，“帮助就在眼前。”
这人心坏了
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澳洲要坚持什么？凡事都跟从美国？无条件的维护美国利益？
确实心坏的很。
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美国的历史学家还是要补课一下古汉语的词汇，比如杀鸡骇猴指鹿为马。
澳洲的政客也要愿赌服输，下注一边就不要想着左右逢源。
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这人还生活在冷战时期
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摸摸头开始扔球让澳洲去捡了
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心好坏呀，这个人，想害澳洲
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其实搞成这种局面，说明双方都有人活在冷战年代，持续恶化在所难免
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美澳同志加兄弟。
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赞
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美国人喜欢也要澳洲努力！
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大哥打冷战，然后说风凉话
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SJB
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我觉得让莫里森滚蛋比较实际
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美国这个调子定了，中澳关系基本完了，澳大利亚没得选
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杀鸡儆猴
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帮助就在眼前， 是飞机，导弹还是航母？
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我信你个鬼死老头子坏的很
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什么是帮助？ 什么是tmd的帮助？
能把2700亿的份子钱打个半价吗？
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你说leadership spill? 一个右翼政客不做党内领袖，就会被另一个右翼政客顶替。
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其实我真不反对澳洲站美国，但美国起码要大方点吧，现在全世界发达国家就澳洲为美国冲得最前，连日本这个半殖民的都没澳洲上头，美国千金买骨也要给澳洲多点好处吧，不多，就要一句在中国损失多少贸易额都给兜底了就够了，现在美国估计就给了点自由党好处，控制澳洲媒体抹黑工党，保证自由党连任，导致澳洲就自由党政客受益，民众受损，以国家之利肥党派之私，所以才有陆克文要求调查新闻媒体。要澳洲回到正常轨道上来，必须先把默多克媒体和这届出卖国家利益的自由党给打下去。
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比较准确地描述了目前的世界。
方针大政明确，尽快落实到位。
祝福全世界！
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傀儡政权首先要维护的就是老大的利益
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希望澳洲领导人看清时势，不要再给美国当冲锋队了，美国要把澳洲害惨！
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帮助就在眼前, 先免费来5000万疫苗
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有些人就是不想让和自己同族的人过好日子，我觉得这些人真的很坏
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