如果有人告诉你， 悉尼某些区域的房价在2030年末达到750万， 你相信吗？
现在悉尼的房地产可能贵的要割去你一条胳膊一条腿， 但是与将来的一代代人比起来， 简直是便宜死了！
经济模拟显示， 在悉尼的某些市政区， 平均房价在2030年末，价格将上升到 850万澳元， 比现在的价格贵了一倍！
这一假设的物业价格增值在过去30多年里一直按这个平均年增速增加， 期间经历了经济的衰退和繁荣， 房价的上升和下跌。
在过去30年这一段时间， 悉尼房子(house)年平均增值6.8%,单元房增值则每年是 6.4% 。
如果市场持续按这给轨迹发展，在大悉尼地区（包括蓝山，中央海岸）的一个中位价房子（house），在2030年的时候将卖到 174万， 几乎比目前90万的价格翻一倍。
根据CoreLogic 和澳洲统计局的数据， 于此同时，单元房的价格将从目前的 69.5 万到2030年末的时候达到 124万。
物业专家警告说， 其中一个促使房价持续上涨的因素就是可供建筑用土地的供给不足， 这个因素在过去一直是驱动房价上涨的一个主要动力。
在未来几年， 住房供给肯定是房市的一个主要问题，尤其在东区，下北岸区。 这些区的建筑批准量低， 而且市政厅的法律还严格限制新的开发。
所以毫不奇怪，Woollahra 市政厅辖区，包括Bellevue Hill ，Vaucluse，和Point Piper，预计在2030年将拥有全国最昂贵的住房：这个地区的中位价房子（house）将达到 748万！
如果按历史上的这个趋势继续下去， Mosman区的房子（houses）平均价格将达到680万，而典型的北海岸的房子将达到500万。
CoreLogic 研究员Tim Lawless说， 这些地区在近来的房市复苏中引领市场，从长远来看， 正显示了始终如一的增长趋势。
在过去10年里， Woollahra 当地政府辖区的平均年增长率是 7.2%, Mosman是 6.4%,北部海岸价格增长率是 6.8%。.
他说， 这些地区是蓝筹股地区， 引领全国的房市复苏。
Realestate.com.au 首席经济师Nerida Conisbee 说， 有个普遍的误解，那就师每7年房价翻倍，实际上时间比这个要长。
她补充说，过去在市场上表现好的也不能保证将来就增值。
如果历史趋势继续，预计Parramatta 区房子的中位价到 2030年至少是 210万， 利物浦房子的中位价从目前的 74万增长到 126万。
Penrith 当地的房子， 目前的中位价 是 65万，在悉尼算是最便宜的， 2030年预计是 126 万，这一地区平均年增长率是 6.8%。
https://www.news.com.au/finance/ ... 5b5bc29f8f4431a6f68
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原文如下
Average home prices will hit $7 million by 2030 in some Sydney regions if growth trends continue
Economic modelling has revealed the kind of prices home buyers will be paying for Sydney property by 2030 if historic growth continues – and it’s great news if you’re a homeowner.
Sydney real estate may cost an arm and a leg now but it will be a steal compared to the prices future generations will pay.
Economic modelling has revealed home buyers could be paying prices of up to $7.5 million, on average, in some city council areas by the end of 2030 – double what they are currently.
This assumed property values continued growing at the same average annual rate as over the past 30 years, a period characterised by recessions and economic booms, along with housing rises and downturns.
Sydney house values increased by an average of 6.8 per cent a year over the period, while unit values grew by about 6.4 per cent a year.
Were the market to continue on this trajectory, a median priced house in the Greater Sydney area, including the Blue Mountains and Central Coast, will cost $1.74 million in 2030, almost double the current median of $900,000.
A median priced unit, meanwhile, will grow from $695,000 currently to $1.24 million by the end of the next decade, according to the analysis of CoreLogic and ABS figures.
Property experts warned one of the factors likely to keep prices growing was a dire supply of buildable land, which was one of the key drivers of house price growth in the past.
Housing supply is set to remain a major problem for the market in the years ahead, especially within the eastern suburbs and lower north shore, where building approvals remain low and council laws severely restrict new development.
It is no surprise then that the Woollahra council area, including Bellevue Hill, Vaucluse and Point Piper, is expected to have the country’s priciest houses in 2030: the median house price in the area will be $7.48 million.
Mosman houses will cost about $6.8 million, on average, while the typical northern beaches house will cost $5 million if historic growth trends continued.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said these areas have been leading the recent resurgence in the housing market and tended to show the most consistent growth in prices over the long-term.
Woollahra LGA prices increased by an average annual rate of 7.2 per cent over the past 10 years, Mosman by 6.4 per cent and northern beaches prices by 6.8 per cent.
“These areas are blue chip real estate and have been (leading) the real estate market recovery … they tend to be the areas that grow first,” Mr Lawless said.
Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee said there was a popular misconception that house prices doubled every seven years. “It usually takes a lot longer,” she said.
The past performance of a market was no guarantee of future growth, she added.
“It’s almost impossible to predict exactly what prices will be because a lot of things can change, but Sydney is likely to record strong growth in prices because of limited housing supply and strong migration,” Ms Conisbee said.
“Looking to the long-term, buying real estate makes sense because you get more (from your investment) than if you’re renting and buying other assets like shares.”
Parramatta’s median house price was expected to be at least $2.1 million in 2030 if historic growth continued, while a house in Liverpool will cost $1.26 million, up from $740,000 currently.
Houses in the Penrith council area, which at a median of $650,000 are currently among the cheapest in Sydney, will cost a much dearer $1.26 million in 2030, with average annual average price growth in the region currently at 6.8 per cent.
Originally published asWhat your home will be worth in 10 years
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姑且信。
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Nothing impossible !
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如果工资每年就涨一丢丢 那以后的年轻人靠自己买房想都不要想
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前提是经济持续发展，人口不断增加。谁知道都时候是个什么样的世界
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没有什么不可能，悉尼本来就是全球人民向往的城市
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空军表示:就是不买。
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空军刘司令消失不见了，唯有漠哥一人站擂台，孤独吗？
论坛漠哥守擂台
不见当年刘司令
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哈哈哈~
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历史证明人都是要嗝屁的，爱买房的买房，不爱买的有钱买其他的，各取所需，老是扯来扯去真没劲
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高房价的地区，什么都会很贵，基础生活难保障。
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为什么就没专家预测一下水电煤气汽油在2030涨到什么价呢？房子可以不买，但这些必须要用的呀
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有人预测2030悉尼夏天50度是常态。有人相信吗？
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信。
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媒体预测都是与事实相反的，房市危险了
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主要是物价飞涨的速度让人信。
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mark
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相信，特别是随着AI的进步，愈来愈多低端劳动力会被机器人代替。大城市会被富人占领，穷人会慢慢被挤出去。
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现在都没空军了，涨不动了
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个别地区不奇怪
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750还是850？楼主你信哪个？
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那个时候买房就不能靠工资了，跟北上广一样，没家长卖房帮忙是基本不可能了
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房价上涨趋势不可阻挡，就像王特工不顾一切也要出镜变网红一样
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幸存者偏差最大的特点就是过度解释现象，然而解释者并不知道逻辑和真象。没有正确逻辑支撑的理论，就像梦一样，醒了才知道不是真的。可怜的是还在做梦的人。
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从世界上多数发达国家的发展趋势来看, 房价增长还是会趋缓
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现在难道就没有750万的房子吗？
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太贵了，超过想象空间的事情烧脑子。就不想了
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