在新西兰
8月更新--美联储降息。
美联储今天宣布的降息,正式拉开了全球新一轮的降息潮,锁表也于8月提前结束。
说是经济周期,竟然是摆脱不了宿命,2009年开始的量化宽松,到2015年12月开始加息,到了2019年又开始了降息,历史就是如此的偶然,又是如此的必然。但是新西兰的浪花效应,市场会更慢一点。
还有一个外国人禁止买房,所以管他外面洪水滔天,里面会很安逸的。
首先起来的应该是生意买卖和商业地产了。
5月更新--降了!
新西兰央行(新西兰储备银行 RBNZ )在2019年5月8日宣布将新西兰境内的官方现金利率(OCR)降至历史新低 1.5%,并暗示、如果有更多需要,新西兰央行将进一步降息。
3月原帖:
那个谁谁谁,一直和我说升息,什么美国,什么全世界的,什么8年周期10年周期,利率要涨!!!搞笑呢嘛
央行宣布这次OCR保持不变,下次OCR大概率是降。
打脸了吧!
Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75 percentRelease date
27 March 2019
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent. Given the weaker global economic outlook and reduced momentum in domestic spending, the more likely direction of our next OCR move is down.
Employment is near its maximum sustainable level. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 percent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy.
The global economic outlook has continued to weaken, in particular amongst some of our key trading partners including Australia, Europe, and China. This weaker outlook has prompted central banks to ease their expected monetary policy stances, placing upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar.
Domestic growth slowed in 2018, with softness in the housing market and weak business investment contributing.
We expect ongoing low interest rates, and increased government spending and investment, to support economic growth over 2019. Low interest rates, and continued employment growth, should support household spending and business investment. Government spending on infrastructure, housing, and transfer payments also supports domestic demand.
As capacity pressures build, consumer price inflation is expected to rise to around the mid-point of our target range at 2 percent.
The balance of risks to this outlook has shifted to the downside. The risk of a more pronounced global downturn has increased and low business sentiment continues to weigh on domestic spending. On the upside, inflation could rise faster if firms pass on cost increases to prices to a greater extent.
We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation.
Meitaki, thanks.
Media contact:
Naomi Mitchell
Manager, Communications
DDI: +64 4 471 3836 | MOB: 027 294 3900
Email: [email protected]
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知道了
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thats why most of the banks provide low home load interests?
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再降OCR也解决不了贷款难的问题啊。
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之前不一直说2020年之前都不变么。
OCR不变。。可能美国加息后个商业银行自己加吧。。不过美国好像也加不动了
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美联储早些时候都宣布不加息了,且停止锁表. 这新西兰才有胆子说下次要降,不然他哪敢说这个话啊.
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其实几个月前确实有加息的可能性, 因为美国去年加息好几次, 今年本来说还要再加两次, 欧洲去年年底也宣布退出量宽。这种大环境确实令人感觉新西兰离加息不远了。
可是进入2019年后美联储的态度发生了巨大变化, 欧洲也是因为德国这样的龙头经济放缓而转向鸽派,所以这一切都是根据形势的变化而变化的。没有什么搞笑不搞笑的。
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打谁的脸呐?
穷人利息再低,也贷不到款。富人买房直接现金出手。
最惨的是自不量力,背负大笔贷款的人,整天提心吊胆,担心升息!
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我从来都不觉得加息不远了,具体问题具体分析,美国经济有多好吗?不是啊,也就刚从泥潭挣扎起来,再继续加息就一下打死了嘛?不可能啊.
人要遵从人性,经济也不是绝对的几年一个周期, 绝对同意你说的,是的,确实是环境发生了变化了,经济情况本身就是需要具体问题具体分析的.
货币宽松就是这样,药不能停,停药就要你的命,怎么办呢?
今朝有酒,今朝醉吧.(央行都这么想)
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你从来都不觉得加息不远了, 那就是说你一直觉得新西兰不会加息, 甚至会降息。你有发过相关的帖子或者回复吗? 有的话, 贴出来看看。我们想看看你当时的依据是什么。做任何判断都应该有依据, 光有结论没有依据那是没有意义的。
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现金买房的不是富人,一个叫贷不下款的刚需,一个叫贷不下款的土豪.
新西兰那种背一麻袋现金买房的土豪不多,这个东西中国多.
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我在网上会反对周期论什么的,我不相信,太迷信了. 搞得和算命没有差别.
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可是周期是客观存在的呀
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interest is the key to the cycle. i will think this cycle will be prolonged.
1) Brexit will get no support, and Trumpism will gain no momentum
2) NZ relaxing its immigration policy but with more stringent criteria on quality.
3) Better business sentiments eg lower interest rates.
4) CGT discussion deferred until next election.
Labour's support gaining momentum and Winston and Green is falling out of favour. Green continues to work closely with Labour and their coalition is untouchable.
National is difficult to gain back from Labour and likely Labour will have another 3+3 years.
With Ardern leadership is affirmed and almost invincible, she can call for election anytime, and still retain her leadership. On that basis, she can push for her reform. Winston will have no say but just enjoy his puppet show. He will soon face the reality that he was just a card in politics. Yes, he was the card, now he is just another sacrificial Card like anyone else.
Just like GFC defined National Party, this CHCH incident defined Labour's destiny.
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知道了
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没啥打脸不打脸,连美联储都不相信,美国他们自己都不相信美国加息周期这么快就完了。这次美国想抄底没抄成,世界再不停变化。以前大家都是跟美国走,美国加息周期,但是现在美国已经一家独大不了了,半路杀出程咬金。央行加息减息都是根当前的经济指标来确定,经济变化,外界大环境变化,经济货币政策也需要调整。非常正常。除非一些喜欢装逼的人,经常说一定一定的。哈哈
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老头子,说的好哦!!!赞!!!
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可是楼主自己就说“一定”,
“我从来都不觉得加息不远了”=“我一定觉得不会在近期加息”
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经济不景气,空袭重伤旅游业啊
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全世界都在准备放水了,原来的乐观都被特没谱的贸易战弄没了。
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打谁的脸谁知道。哼哼哼。。。。
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肯定打不到我的脸, 我不会“一直说升息,什么美国,什么全世界的,什么8年周期10年周期,利率要涨!”, 肯定不是我说的。
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利率还有下行空间,今年的经济比18年还要惨淡,等到降无可降的时候就要大量印钱了,到时候就是下一波的开始。
慢慢等,看谁能熬得过谁。哈哈哈!
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目前这个情况下,只要不缩表,就是变相在放水啦!
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现在已经这是我经历过的最低利率了。。。
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我的水晶球告诉我今年12月份,利息会降到3.5%
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冲啊,快抢房啦
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好,又多了0.49%的额外收入了。
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越来越有意思了,静观其变。
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人家当房东当的开心着呢
在人家眼里,没有房或只有自住房的都是Loser