新西兰3月奥克兰房价全面下跌

在新西兰

Median house prices rebounded strongly in March, although the REINZ's new House Price Index suggests prices could be declining in Auckland

There was a big lift in the volume of residential property sales and their median prices in March, with several regions including Auckland, Waikato/Bay of Plenty and Canterbury/Otago setting new median price records, according to the latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).

There were 8504 residential properties sold in March, up 35% compared to February but still down 11% compared to March last year.

The National median sales price hit a new record of $546,000, up 10% compared to February and up 10.3% compared to March last year.

New median price records were also set in Northland, Auckland, Waikato/Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, Manawatu, Taranaki, Canterbury/Westland and Otago.

However much, of the upward movement in prices was likely due to a change in the composition of the properties being sold, with more higher priced properties selling and fewer lower value ones, which could move the median needle.

This month the REINZ has launched a new House Price Index (HPI) which has been designed in conjunction with the Reserve Bank and adjusts for monthly differences in the composition of the homes that are sold.

The HPI showed that nationally, prices in March were up 10% compared to March last year but unchanged from February.

In Auckland, the HPI was up 8.3% compared to March last year but down 0.3% compared to February.

The national figures with Auckland removed showed a gain of 13% compared to March last year, and a gain of 0.6% compared to February.

That suggests that prices in Auckland are flat or declining overall and starting to flatten out around the rest of the country.

The Index showed that prices are down in most parts of Auckland, with the biggest decline occurring Rodney, where the Index declined 1.7% in March compared to February, followed by the North Shore -0.4%, Central Auckland suburbs -0.4%, and Manukau -0.3%.

However the Index posted gains in Waitakere +0.4% (although it was down 0.4% in Waitakere compared to three months earlier), Papakura +1% and Franklin +3%.

The only other major centres where the Index declined in March compared to February were Rotorua -0.6% (-2.1% compared to three months earlier), Christchurch -1.6% and Queenstown -0.3% (-2.9% compared to three months earlier).

Nationally, the biggest gains in the HPI in March compared to February were in Franklin (Auckland's southernmost district) +3%, Napier +3%, Dunedin +2.5% and New Plymouth +2.2%.

"The REINZ HPI takes many aspects of market composition into account, and thus provides more accurate results," REINZ chief executive Bindi Norwell said in the REINZ's March report (se below).

"When applied to the March data, the HPI indicates that the lift in the median price was largely driven by changes in the underlying mix of dwellings sold in March compared to February.

"While the median price went up $51,000 across New Zealand, the HPI was stable month-on-month at 0% change, indicating more sales in higher price brackets than lower ones."

In a First Impressions newsletter on the REINZ figures,Westpac Acting Chief Economist Michael Gordon said the new HPI gave a clearer picture of the direction of prices.

"The new index confirms our sense that house price inflation has cooled substantially in recent months," he said.

"In particular, prices in Auckland have been effectively flat since August.







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房奴甲要讲笑话了？

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坐等一帮炒房客过来掰

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还没研究过它这个Index到底是个什么东西。

但从数据来看， 3月份奥克兰的房产市场是量价齐升（环比）。

不过去看看Auction Room, 其冷清的程度真的是令人唏嘘。同时Auction clearence rate 也很低， 所以有时候真的也搞不懂。

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NO NO NO，我比较相信NZ Herald的分析
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=11837653

Auckland house prices bounced back in March, says REINZ

Auckland house prices bounced back in March, according to latest Real Estate Institute data.

REINZ says the median price for an Auckland house was $890,000 in March, up from $800,000 in February - a rise of 11.3 per cent.

Seasonally-adjusted median prices in New Zealand's largest city were up 3.2 per cent in March. Since March last year, prices have risen by 8.5 per cent.

Compare that to data released last month which led commentators to suggest Auckland's hot property market was starting to cool.

Median Auckland prices slipped in February and were down 0.6 per cent from January. On a seasonally-adjusted basis prices were down 1.7 per cent in from the month before.

Across the country, median house prices were up 10.3 per cent month-on-month in March to $546,000

Across New Zealand, median prices for the year are up by 10.3 per cent from March 2016.

"Following a mixed outlook for the New Zealand housing market in February, March has shown traditional lifts in terms of median price, volume and activity levels," REINZ said.

"The market reached its peak level of activity for the year so far as median house prices firmed and sales volumes rose strongly across New Zealand during March, which is traditionally the busiest month for real estate transactions across New Zealand."

The national median price rose $51,000 to $546,000 during March, an increase of 10 per cent on February and a new record median, while eight of 12 regions hit new record high median sale prices: Auckland, Northland, Waikato/Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, Manawatu, Taranaki, Canterbury/Westland and Otago," the institute said.

"On a seasonally adjusted basis the national median rose 2 per cent. The number of sales for March 2017 was 8,504, an increase of 36 per per cent on February, although down 11 per cent compared to March 2016. On a seasonally adjusted basis sales for March rose 2 per cent compared to February, indicating an expected seasonal effect".

- NZ Herald


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哈哈哈， 同样的数据标题可以五花八门

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信升不信跌     

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所以还是看信仰，比如信升不信跌

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听说有人呼唤我的笑话，急忙上来看看。这个Index响应了我长期以来的呼吁呀。打从15年底我就嚷嚷不能看中位价，因为苹果不能跟橘子比，卖掉的东西不一样，大房子卖多了，中位价自然上去，实际价钱已经跌得一塌糊涂。我的观察是大市已经跌到2016年五月之前的水平，屋况平平没有卖点的房子直接跌到了2015年5月前的价格水平，是大大的跌了。不能因为这种统计结果会造成我赌输，我就不承认事实，事实我早就一直在嚷嚷，人民群众不听我的。

人民群众为啥不听我的，因为高手们都有正经工作，又忙着捡漏买房，没功夫天天看房子涨跌，特别是自己不关心的地区，特别是没功夫看具体的房子，只能根据媒体数据看个题目，看个统计。只有我这种边缘人物干着个打酱油的狗屁工作，又志大才疏只能毫无技术含量地仔细浏览每个listing还有成交结果，比较一下记忆中的模糊历史。拍脑袋的人如何能让人信服呢。
然而，然而哈，目前我观察，好地点的好房子，有潜力的，房价已经是历史新高，过去的三个月内大浪淘沙，逆市上扬的趋势非常明显。好房跟普通房子的分野愈发明显。上周有个birkenhead的两房unit，还是个100平方米的，豆腐教拿来可以立即改三房的，卖了50几万。北岸的cross lease两房卖到60万以下一般都是更差的区。还是个有车库的。

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中位数的局限性。数据范例A：
10w,20w,80w,81w,82w 中位数80w，平均数54.6w
数据范例B：
房屋A：sold 100w，售价CV比：1.3
房屋B：sold 200w， 售价CV比： 1.1
房屋C： sold 80w    售价CV比：1.2
房屋D： Not Sold 50w    售价CV比：1.4
房屋E： Not Sold 170w    售价CV比：1.6
已售房屋中位价100w，平均价 126w，同比上涨，环比上涨XX%。






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便宜啊              

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房屋可负担指数 可以稍微调整一下了。

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就是这个：

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/591876#Detail

卖了55万多。

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还有这个卖了93万，好街。

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/588639
这个楼下分分钟能改成granny flat.




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太便宜了， 是个漏。 如果 现在房市都按照这个标准相应调整， 那 买房的不得疯抢。

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这个也不错。 还不到1百万

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我看的一个两房拍了102万，第二个就没去看拍卖，最后115.6。

算了，不看了，心累。。。。



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你磨蹭这么久还没买完啊？要买几个啊？我曾经半年之内买三个，累得快进医院了。

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分析的很中肯，只怕有房的最近想卖房的，还是会出来撕你的

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决定不买了。买房比盼腰斩难多了。。。

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虽然说拍脑袋，但是这是经过长期经验观察的。我也观察到这个现象，不过具体数据整合还没全部完成，做完数据再看看是不是确实如此。

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太追求完美就动作慢。现在那个混乱的时期差不多过去了，盘整基本完成，好deal少了。你错过了浑水摸鱼的机会。

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本来就不靠那个吃饭啊，少赚点无所谓的

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高风亮节啊。

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强忍着心酸也要作出不屑的姿态啊。。。。。

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你的意思是不是房价不会再下跌了？
我觉得房价还得有一阵子跌的。如果利率持续上涨的话。
我现在还真不着急买房。

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房价是跌啊，但是好房子差房子变化方向不同的。好房子根本不跟着跌的。低价买好房子的机会过去了。

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好像是这么回事，但我在炒股的时候常常遇到砸盘，这时候好股差股都会被砸到很惨的程度，这是人心慌了的缘故。很难说房市会有例外的。

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现在新西兰离人心慌了的程度还差得远。。。。