在新西兰
每周一期，
如果没有时间看经济新闻，这个人的专栏值得每周看看（包括房市和其他）。BNZ首席经济师。
这是最新的（上周）http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-co ... /WO-June-2-2016.pdf
有关房市部分：
1。 听到的基本上都是不满的声音，似乎这就是主流，但其实更多的人闷声发财(第一页的信心调查显示，其实更多的人愿意(happy)看到房价上涨)。
First, most of what you encounter will be moaning about thespeed with which house prices are rising and how some groups are beingnegatively impacted. You will hear little about those doing well from the risesbeyond tall poppy bashing along the lines of such people being speculators andrich. In New Zealand it is not socially acceptable to be rich so callingsomeone that is an insult here.
In the same vein, when house prices were falling over2008-09 the stories you heard were about people suffering because of thosedeclining prices – not those benefitting because they had held off gearingthemselves to the hilt and were subsequently getting bargains. Just as someolder dairy farmers are doing now.
Attention is always on the most negative aspects of whateveris happening in fairly much anything we discuss amongst ourselves. Its humannature. 负面新闻总是更吸引人
2。 如果一直是讨论，“应该如何如何”，那用来制定政策目标很好，但不能帮助你看透事情的本质问题，比如走向，比如背后的原因。太主观化。
Second, and this is an extrapolation of the first set ofhousing comments, we get discussion about what “should” happen and how things“should” be. Such discussions are greatfor helping to formulate policy. But they won’t give you much useful insightinto where house prices are going to go or what is moving them. In particular,just because someone is angry about house prices rising does not mean they haveor even had any insight to offer into actual price movements these past sixyears. In fact theemotional approach of one long in the public eye NZ economist has led him toincorrectly forecast house price movements for four decades now. - 谁知道这是谁啊，40年的预测错误。。。
3。 目前是如何（原因），今后会如何（走势） - （而不是应该如何如何）
I deal in the third area of discussion. That which “is” andthat which I believe “will be”. No bemoaning the winners and losers. Nowhinging about how the world should be fairies and fluffy pink unicorns.
This type of analysis and commentary can be a bit difficultfor some people to understand. So if you live in the world of “should” stopreading now and go back to the talkback radio. What “is” in this country’shousing markets is that
具体18点 我用google 翻译了，好搞笑。。。
1. strong population growth is exceeding housing supply,
2. interest rates are at record lows so borrowing costs areminor and returns on the simplest of non-housing investments extremely low, is meanseven land-banking is cheap,
3. people are living longer so preparing a wealth base,
4. older people are splitting up and needing two houses,
5. the population is aging thus also naturally requiringmore houses as bedrooms sit empty – perhaps ready to accept tourists using Airbnb,
6. council rules make building a new house expensive,
7. central government keeps raising building standards andcosts,
8. we Kiwis like expensive bespoke houses rather than littleboxes on a hillside which we look down our noses at (our snobbery goes both up anddown in the same people),
9. an oligopolistic industry structure keeps buildingmaterial costs high,
10. we Kiwis seem to suck at building houses which passinspections and don’t leak,
11. most of us live in NZ for the nice leafy yard lifestylerather than making big bucks (overseas) so we actively prevent housing intensification,
12. people are “catching up” on buying they did not do from2008 until recently as they sat listening to people in the world of “should”expecting prices to fall 40%,
13. there is a shortage of skilled tradespeople needed tobuild extra houses,
14. investors have flooded out of Auckland seeking betteryields and smaller mortgages as they do every cycle,
15. few people seriously believe the government and centralbank have the tools to flatten house prices let alone cause them to correct downwardto more “affordable” levels,
16. people are being driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) tobuy as quickly as they can,
17. some are driven by housing investment seeming to havebecome the social norm with pictures of happy investors looking just like you andI,
18. Auckland is changing from looking like many Invercargillsin one place to being a globally connected world city.
1.强大的人口增长超过住房供给，
2.利率处于历史低点使借贷成本是次要的和最简单的非住房投资的回报率极低，是指土地，即使银行是便宜，
3.人们的寿命延长，以便准备了丰富的基础上，
4.老年人分手了，并需要两套房子，
5.人口老化，因此也自然需要更多的房子作为卧室坐空的 - 也许用现成游客的Airbnb接受，
6.会议事规则使盖新房贵，
7.中央财政不断提高建筑标准和成本，
8.我们新西兰人喜欢昂贵的定制的房子，而不是小方块在一个山坡上，我们往下看我们的（我们的势利在同一个人去向上和向下）的鼻子，
9.寡头产业结构不断建设材料成本高，
10.我们新西兰人似乎在建筑，经过检查，做到不漏房屋吸，
11.我们大多数人生活在新西兰的漂亮的绿叶院子里的生活方式，而不是使大钱（海外），所以我们积极防范住房集约化，
12.人在买，他们没有从2008年做直到最近，他们坐着听的人“应该”预计价格的世界下降40％，“恶补”
13.有建造额外的房屋需要熟练技工短缺，
14.投资者纷纷涌了出来奥克兰寻求更好的收益和更小的贷款，因为他们做的每一个周期，
15.少数人真的相信政府和中央银行必须拉平房价更不用说导致他们下调至更“实惠”的水平校正工具，
16.人们正在FOMO（错过的恐惧）驱动尽可能快，因为他们可以购买，
17.有些是由住房的投资驱动似乎已经成为与期待，就像你和我开心投资者的照片的社会规范，
18.奥克兰是从一个地方看起来像许多Invercargills到成为一个全球网络相连的城市变化。
另外他2012年也写过类似的19点原因
http://tonyalexander.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/WONovember-1.pdf
1. Auckland did not enter the 2008 recession then late-2008into 2009 global financial crisis with an over-supply of property. Shortages ofpersonnel constrained house construction from 2004 through 2008.
2. The shortage has become worse in the past four years andlast year annual consent numbers were at a four decade low.
3. The government is explicitly aiming to grow Auckland’spopulation as a means of achieving “agglomeration” benefits for economic growthwhich accrue from high interaction amongst economic players.
4. Despite the biggest global financial crisis since the1930s NZ house prices only fell 11% at their worst and now sit on average above2007 levels.
5. Removing the ability to use LAQCs to offset housinginvestment losses against other income has produced no flood of properties ontothe market.
6. Removing the ability for property investors to deductdepreciation expense has not produced any flood of property onto the market.
7. Over the past four years young people have put off theirnormal household formation (leaving home, buying their own house) because ofworries about mortgage availability, falling house prices, employment, andability to raise a deposit. Now those four years worth of people are enteringthe market and looking to “catch-up” on their purchase.
8. Construction standards in New Zealand are always rising(watertightness, earthquake strength, energy efficiency) and this boostsconstruction costs.
9. A big fall in apprentice numbers in the past five yearscoupled with the loss of skilled people to Australia and older tradespeopleleaving the sector rather than get licensed means labour-related constructioncosts will rise and labour will not be available to build houses even were moreland available.
10. Banks are not going to step back into the propertydevelopment sector left bereft of funds from the closure of finance companies.
11. Poor growth prospects in the next few years for Westerneconomies mean their and our interest rates will remain at low levels for manyyears. This means low borrowing costs for home buyers.
12. Low returns on bank deposits mean older savers inparticular will be seeking extra yield through investment in residentialproperty either directly or through a yet to appear wave of property investmentvehicles. (Be in no doubt. They will come.)
13. The migration cycle appears to be on the cusp of turningand if the housing market has performed so well with net outflows over 3,000 inthe past year the implications of positive gains are clear.
14. The nature of net inward migration is changing towardgreater numbers of people coming from Asia and with Asia’s middle class boomingin size potential inflows of wealthier people are large.
15. The NZ unemployment rate of 6.8% is likely to fall quitequickly over 2013 as the construction sector booms on the back of therebuilding of Christchurch.
16. The aging population will produce a decrease in theaverage house occupancy rate and therefore a need for more houses for any givenpopulation size. People will retain their old homes with many bedrooms to allowvisits by grandchildren, gyms, home offices, home cinemas etc.
17. The government has announced its efforts to improvehousing affordability (lower prices) and they are minor and unlikely to have anoticeable impact if any for many years.
18. Any credibility people may have assigned to those whohave been predicting big price declines simply because prices have risen a longway and now fallen sharply in some other countries has gone out the window. Fewpeople will now listen to their price decline views.
19. Members of the Opposition believe monetary fairies canmake the exchange rate settle permanently lower by forcing interest rate cutsand printing money while letting inflation therefore go up. Given the non-zeropossibility that such economically ignorant policies get introduced it is worthgetting inflation protection by investing more in property – not less.
1.奥克兰没有与物业供过于求进入2008年的经济衰退则2008年末到2009年全球金融危机。人才短缺从2004年至2008年的限制房屋建筑。
2.短缺在过去的四年里变得更糟，去年全年同意数字是在四十年来的低点。
3.政府明确目标增长奥克兰人口作为实现经济增长的“集聚”的好处从经济当中的球员高交互性的累积的手段。
4.尽管是全球最大的金融危机自1930年代以来新西兰房价只在最糟糕的下跌了11％，现在坐在上面的平均2007年的水平。
5.删除使用LAQCs其他收入产生了没有属性的洪水进入市场，以抵消住房投资损失的能力。
6.删除对房地产投资者扣除折旧费用并没有产生任何财产的洪水进入市场的能力。
7.在过去的四年里的年轻人已经脱去了正常的家庭形成（离开家，自己买的房子），因为有关抵押贷款的可用性的担忧，房价下跌，就业和提高存款的能力。现在，这四个值得人多年都进入市场，并期待“追赶”在他们的购买。
8.在新西兰的建设标准一直在上升（防水，防震强度，能源效率），这提高了建设成本。
9.大幅下跌徒弟号码在过去的五年加上熟练的人拥到澳洲及以上的商人离开，而不是得到许可的行业的丢失意味着劳动相关的建筑成本将上升，劳动力将无法使用，甚至建造房屋更可用土地。
10.银行是不会回踩成左丧失资金从金融公司倒闭的房地产开发行业。
在未来几年西方经济体11.可怜的增长前景意味着他们和我们的利率将维持在较低水平多年。这意味着购房者的低借贷成本。
12.银行存款的低回报意味着特别是老年储户将直接或通过一个寻求通过在住宅物业的投资额外收益尚未出现房地产投资汽车浪潮。 （是毫无疑问的。他们会来的。）
13.迁移周期似乎开启，如果住房市场已与净流出3000在过去一年中表现如此出色的正收益的影响是显而易见的风口浪尖。
14.净流入移民的本质是对人来自亚洲的数量更多，并与亚洲中产阶级的规模蓬勃发展的富裕人士的潜在流入较大变化。
15. 6.8％的新西兰失业率有可能超过2013相当迅速下降，因为在基督城的重建背面的建筑业繁荣。
16.人口老龄化将产生在普通住宅占用率的降低，因此，需要用于任何给定的群体大小的详细的房屋。人们会保留他们的老房子，有许多卧室以允许孙子，健身房，家庭办公，家庭影院等参观
17.政府已经宣布努力改善住房负担能力（价格较低），他们是轻微的，不太可能有显着的影响，如果任何多年。
18.任何可信的人可能已经分配给那些谁一直在预测大的价格下降仅仅是因为价格已经上涨了很长的路，现在在其他一些国家大幅下滑已经窗外。现在很少有人会听他们的价格下降的意见。
19.反对派成员认为货币仙子可以使汇率结算永久迫使降息和印钞票，同时让通胀率因此上升较低。考虑到非零的可能性，这种经济上无知的政策得到介绍这是值得投入更多的财产得到保护的通货膨胀 - 而不是更少。
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So what is likely to happen? Prices keep rising but two to three years from now some regions will have seen excess construction compared with population growth (or shrinkage) and some developers and investors will suffer losses. Auckland will plateau through the combined effects of prices simply being really, really high, mildly easing migration, higher annual supply growth, and possibly slightly higher interest rates from 2019.
google tranlate: 那么，什么是可能发生？价格持续上涨，但是从现在的一些地区将看到多余的建设两到三年随着人口的增长（或收缩）相比，还有一些开发商和投资者将蒙受损失。奥克兰将通过价格仅仅是非常非常高的，轻度缓解迁移，更高的年供应量增长的综合影响高原，从2019可能小幅提高利率。
（正确的翻译应该是2019年之后进入平台期, 原因是 xxx）
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第４条亮了！
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只是觉得奥克兰这个地方，地广人稀。利用人为和政策的便利居然也可以把房价炒到这么高！
第一条已经一针见血了，大家静静的数钱就好了，至于以后要发生的事，以后再说吧！
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新西兰天维网6月7日报道 援引odt消息，一份最新调查显示，新西兰乐见房价上涨的人还是占多数。有业内人士表示，房价的此轮上涨要到2018年才会结束，央行更可能使用限制贷款的形式为房市降温。
BNZ银行最新的季度信心调查收到了564份有效回复，对于房价上涨的问题，有218人表示支持，186人表示反对，也有160人表示没看法。整体来看，有净6%的人支持房价上涨。
近年来，BNZ首席经济师Tony Alexander对新西兰经济的预测比较准确，包括之前针对纽币汇率和乳价下滑的预估。
Alexander表示，在2014年3月份的调查中，乐见房价上涨的人更多，达到净14%。此次调查中，并没有针对房价的预测，但是多数人乐见房价上涨；他们也会为了保持房价上涨、避免跌价，而可能“采取行动”。
目前针对房市的评论主要有三种。Alexander说，“在新西兰，社会还不接受‘富有’，所以如果说谁是‘有钱人’好像是在侮辱他。”
因此，对房市的第一种评论就是房价涨了多少，涨得多快，人们关注的是房价上涨的负面影响，以及有多少人受到影响。第二种评论是人们讨论“应该发生什么”和“应该怎么样”。
Alexander说，他更赞成第三种评论方式，“客观来看待目前房市情况，未来将会向哪里发展。不为胜者赞扬，不为败者叹息，不为公平与否而愤愤不平。”
目前房市中有18个问题，Alexander说，这些问题包括：人口增幅大于房屋增幅，贷款利率处于历史低位，人的寿命更长，家庭增长的刚需，市议会对建房收费昂贵，专业建筑人员短缺，人们不相信政府和央行能够打压下来房价，奥克兰已经变成国际化都市等等。
为了释放土地，打压房价，政府已经公布了National Policy Statement，但是Alexander认为该政策的效果有限，房价还会继续上涨。
房价还会涨多久？Alexander表示，房价还会涨2-3年，在一些地区，当房屋供应赶上人口增长的时候，一些开发商或者投资者将会遭受损失。
至于奥克兰，房价还会上冲“非常、非常高”；然后移民数量会出现放缓，房屋供应逐渐赶上来，2019年开始利率也会少量上涨，房市也会开始降温。
不过，在房价上冲期间，央行也会想办法让房市降温，之前房贷利率曾经被提高至11%，但是这造成了出口困难和经济衰退。所以这次央行可能采取1980年以前的方法——限制贷款。具体政策实施日期不明，但可能在年底前。
在目前的市场形势下还该不该买房？Alexander说，现在他认为还是应该买；但是，在2018年的时候他的“买入”态度应该有变化。
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你自己做的翻译啊三月？要精华吗？
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前面的是我翻译的，几个词而已，后面的都是google。。。。。