在新西兰
http://www.interest.co.nz/proper ... satisfy-longer-term
Apartment development in Auckland's CBD is likely to fall just short of expected demand over the next few years, according to Colliers International.
Colliers national director of research, Alan McMahon, says 283 new apartments are expected to be completed in Auckland's CBD this year, with another 1142 units next year, 353 in 2017 and 639 in 2018, which would bring 2417 new units to market over the four years from 2015 to 2018, which is an average of 604 new apartments a year.
However he points to Statistics NZ population projections which show the residential population of Auckland's CBD is expected to be 53,000 by 2031, nearly double what it was just two years ago.
McMahon says if there is an average of two people living in each CBD apartment, 11,500 new apartments will be required to house the expected influx of new residents.
That would mean on average, 640 new apartments a year would need to be added to the CBD's existing stock, just to keep pace with demand, he said.
"At first glance the 924 apartment units currently under construction in Auckland's CBD, combined with the 1288 in pre-construction marketing, may appear excessive," McMahon said.
But when you look at what is likely to be required over the next four years, the expected supply doesn't quite keep pace with projected demand, he said.
McMahon says the apartment development market has a built in self correcting mechanism that helps to smooth out imbalances between supply and demand.
A developer will need to get at least 60% of the units in a project pre-sold (off the plans) before their financiers will advance the money, allowing construction to proceed.
"So these developments will only proceed if demand is proven," McMahon said.
"This self correcting market mechanism is frequently seen in action and in the last few months around a dozen developments capable of producing 2000 apartments have been deferred or abandoned."
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不信的人还是不信。。。
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信息分享而已， 没有任何想法要别人相信。
不过投资应该本着客观， 开放的心态去审视每一个投资机会， 而不是凭主观意念。
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嗯，趁机会多屯点
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坐等2018六千套房源入市
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哪里来的六千套房源？
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阿三好像可以十几个人挤一套CBD的公寓，而阿三又是新西兰第一大移民人口，所一套公寓住两个人的假设不成立，后面的分析都是白扯。
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我自己做过统计： http://China2au/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2633293。奥克兰平均每栋住宅的居住人口为3人。公寓面积相对更小， 平均每个公寓住2人是非常合理的推论.
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不是供不应求，而是供不对求。。。。