在新西兰
What to look out for in 2016
Wednesday 30 December 2015
2015 has seen ups and downs for investors, so what should they watch out for in 2016?
By Miriam Bell
Over the course of this year, investors were hit by the introduction of a number of government and Reserve Bank measures.
The most significant of these were the Reserve Bank’s new LVR restrictions for investors in Auckland, the RBNZ’s creation of a new asset class for investors, and the government’s new tax measures, including the “bright line” test.
At the same time, residential property saw solid price growth nationwide and unprecedented price growth in Auckland – which was beneficial for many investors.
Price growth in Auckland has now cooled, but many commentators believe the Auckland market is simply stabilising while growth will continue to spread to nearby regions, like Hamilton.
Colliers International research and consultancy director Chris Dibble said the compound annual growth rate of Auckland residential dwellings has been 11.2% p.a. over the past five years.
This is compared to 7.4% over the last 20 years.
“Recent legislative changes and new regulations in China will slow the rate of Auckland dwelling price growth to long-term averages,” Dibble said.
“Investors will look further afield, creating an ‘Auckland investor effect’ in neighbouring regions that will see regional dwelling price growth at rates not seen since 2006.”
Following the highs and lows of 2015, NZ Property Investors’ Federation executive officer Andrew King said there are two key issues investors need to keep an eye on in the new year.
For landlords, the most pressing of these issues are the government’s new minimum standards for rental properties.
While full details of the minimum standards haven't been announced yet, they will focus on insulation and smoke alarms.
King said landlords will need to state on tenancy agreements what parts of the property are insulated and to what level.
This is to make it easier for tenants to compare rental properties they are looking at.
Although it will be stated on the tenancy agreement, it will raise awareness of insulation and many more tenant applicants are likely to ask about the insulation, he said.
“Because of this landlords should find out what insulation their properties do have so they can tell prospective tenants.
“If the level is low then they may want to improve it to keep up with the competition. Landlords should be able to raise rental prices a little for the extra insulation.”
On top of this, landlords should also look at the condition of their properties as MBIE is to have greater power to prosecute landlords who fail to maintain their rental properties, King said.
“Landlords need to be aware that it is to become easier for tenants to claim retaliatory action against landlords if they evict tenants because they make genuine requests for repairs and maintenance.
“Retaliatory action will also cost the landlord up to $2,000 if it is proved. This goes to the tenant which gives them an added incentive to claim.”
The other key issue will be the Reserve Bank’s efforts to control the housing market
King said the RBNZ has shown that it is prepared to target specific areas if they believe house prices are rising too fast.
“They have done this to Auckland and may well do it to other areas know as prices are rising in some provincial areas.”
Also, the RBNZ is looking at introducing loan to income restrictions in an effort to reduce the amount of money people can borrow, he said.
“If provincial property prices start to rise sharply this is likely to be the next weapon that they introduce.”
http://www.landlords.co.nz/article/5597/what-to-look-out-for-in-2016
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过去5年奥克兰房产年复合增长率达到两位数以上。过去20年该数字的均值为7.4%。
我个人觉得过去5年涨幅较大， 今年的涨幅应该在均值以下。3-5%吧今年。
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如果3-5%那就不买房子了，享受生活去。。。。。。
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30%的首付。
涨3%， 投资回报率10%。
涨5%， 投资回报率16.67%。
不差的投资回报率。
况且针对你的case, 你有可能一分钱都不用付就买下一个房子， 这样哪怕就涨0.1%， 对你而言也是无限投资回报率。
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保温棉公司又可以好好的敲房东们一笔了。。。哈哈
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Pass the cost to tenants.
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想换自住，但似乎有点stretch。。。。。。如果激进冒险一点，说不定可以赶上这一波涨幅的尾巴，而且这尾巴说不定有1-2年，但如果保险一点，就希望它真的掉下来，哈哈
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掉下来真的很难。
如果换自住， 其实不必太介意价格， 因为自住毕竟是享受生活。况且奥克兰房产均价超过一百万是早晚的事， 现在你觉得贵了，再过十几年发现还是太便宜了。
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贷款利息也的算进去呀。。
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看看，希望别人接盘就说房子继续涨， 自己买房就希望房子跌。
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我乃实事求是的说出我的观点。
我又不卖， 谁来接我的盘？
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十几年要背一百多万房贷， 有什么享受。 要享受也就是老人孩子。 天天上班的能享受个毛。
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老想着债务， 那当然就不用买豪宅啦（话说现在一百多万也谈不上豪宅）。
其实债务有啥好多想的， 自己有条不紊的还就行了。大不了留给儿子继续还。
自己住在大house自得其乐， 怎么不是享受？
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dot com的豪宅还是租的，照样穿衣服游泳，自得其乐。。。哈哈哈
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就是嘛， 人一辈子就几十年， 最多一百年出头点， 老是想着债务，孩子不确定的未来，等等来困扰自己，何必呢？
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投资的话，利息几乎都是房客在付。
自主的话，比如本来是30万，升级的话贷款60万，觉得多花钱了，至少前期会手头感觉比较紧。长远看来是没问题的。。。
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奥克兰的一百多万买的房子就不要拿出来谈享受了。
无景， 花园不象样， 也没有娱乐室，空间大但全是房间用来出租招房客，设计也不个性化。就是结构合理的大房子而已。
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地产是新西兰主要的投资渠道，看涨
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请问你现在的房子市值多少呢？
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去年高位接盘套住的今年恐怕很难解了
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估计会成交量低迷2-3个月，然后就能看的出走势了。
另外，估计75%的可能性价格小幅上升或持平，20%的可能性两位数10%左右涨幅，5%的可能性出现意想不到的事，那就可能疯长或者狂跌正负20%以上的波动了。。。。哈哈是不是预测的比较多任何可能性都涉及了
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管他怎么涨，只要不腰斩就行了。。。哈哈
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俺是文化淫，要分析滴。。。。
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顶。。。。。。。。。。