新西兰House prices remain strong, despite a fall in October (转自
在新西兰
House prices nationally fell sharply in October and the rate of annual price growth in Auckland has moderated somewhat from its previous frenzied level.
The Real Estate Institute’s index of house prices nationally, the measure the Reserve Bank watches, fell 3.7% in October and the annual increase eased to 14% from 20% in September.
Its Auckland index showed the annual increase easing to a still spanking rate of 21% from September’s annual pace of 29%.
The number of houses sold in October at 7838 was down 4% from September but up 7% on October last year.
First NZ Capital economist Chris Green says what isn’t yet clear is how much of the September froth was due to the pull-forward effect of new tax rules and residential requirements, which came into force on October 1, and the central bank’s loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) restrictions on property investors which came into force this month.
In Auckland, sales volumes fell 19% from September, although they were still 4% stronger than in October last year.
The institute’s chief executive Colleen Milne attributes the slowdown in sales in Auckland to a softening in demand as well as the tax and LVR changes.
“However, the fundamental supply and demand drivers of the Auckland market remain and the result for October is indicative of the market adjustment phase as it adapts to these new requirements,” Ms Milne says.
Index irons out distortions
The index figures iron out distortions affecting the institute’s median house price figures, such as more or fewer expensive or cheaper houses selling in each month.
Outside of Auckland, the regional index figures showed a similar moderation with, for example, the annual increase in the rest of the North Island easing to just below 13% from 16% and the South Island, excluding Christchurch, falling to 5% from 6.4%.
In Christchurch, the annual increase fell to 2.4% from nearly 11% while in Wellington it slumped to 2% from 8% in October.
Still, Ms Milne says her members are seeing increasing demand and rising prices outside of Auckland as buyers of all types emerge to take advantage of low interest rates.
“It is further evidence of the ‘halo’ effect of Auckland-based buyers searching for value in regional markets,” she says.
“During winter and into early spring, the property markets in a number of regions have been far more active than would normally be expected, thus a slowdown or pause is not surprising following this burst of activity.”
Mr Green says Auckland is still dominating the national increase in house prices and prices there are now 67% above their 2007 peak.
And, even after the October easing, the national index is still well above its 6.6% long-term average.
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哈哈房价照涨不误，怎么办
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看不懂，直接google翻译了一下
房价全国性大幅下跌，十月的年度价格增长在奥克兰率从先前的疯狂水平有所放缓。
房价的房地产协会的全国指数，衡量储备银行手表，同比下降3.7％，月，年增幅放缓至14％，从20％在九月。
它的奥克兰指数显示，每年的增长从9月的年度的29％的速度放缓至21％的还是打屁股率。
在7838十月售出的房屋数量下降了4％，从九月，但高达7％去年十月。
新西兰第一资本经济学家克里斯·格林说什么，目前尚不清楚是多少九月泡沫是由于新的税收法规和住宅的需求拉进效应，生效的10月1日，和央行的该笔贷款─与估值比率（LVR）在本月生效房地产投资者的限制。
在奥克兰，销量从9月下降19％，但他们仍然比去年十月强4％。
该研究所的首席执行官科林·米尔恩属性放缓的销售额奥克兰需求的软化，以及税收及LVR的变化。
“不过，奥克兰市场的基本供求关系的驱动仍然存在，其结果十月表明市场调整阶段，因为它适应这些新的要求，”米尔恩女士说。
指数铁杆出扭曲
该指数的数字化解影响研究所的平均房价数据失真，如更多或更少的昂贵或便宜的房子，每月销售。
奥克兰以外，各区域指数的数字显示了类似的放缓有，例如，在北岛的其余部分的年增长放缓至略低于13％，从16％，南岛，不包括克赖斯特彻奇，从6.4下降到5％ ％。
在基督城，每年的涨幅下降至2.4％，从近11％，而在惠灵顿也跌至2％，从8％在十月。
不过，米尔恩女士说，她的成员看到需求增加，买家各类奥克兰以外的物价上涨出现采取低利率的优势。
“这是奥克兰的买家寻求在区域市场价值的”晕轮“效应进一步证明，”她说。
“在冬季，进入初春，一些地区的房地产市场已经远远超过活跃通常会被预期，从而减缓或暂停也就不足为奇了以下这一阵的活动。”
格林先生说，奥克兰仍然是主导房价和价格，现在有67％以上，2007年的高峰期全国增幅。
而且，即使在十月宽松，国内指数仍远高于其6.6％的长期平均水平。
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到底是跌还是涨？媒体刚说完涨就开始说跌，这不是自相矛盾嘛