在新西兰
The number of mortgagee sales has jumped nationwide in the past quarter as worsening economic conditions and lower dairy payouts hit parts of provincial New Zealand.
But as the nation's "rock star" economy comes off the boil, experts are warning of more foreclosures outside Auckland's surging property market as financially strapped homeowners in regional New Zealand start defaulting on their mortgages.
"People lose interest in their properties, they lose interest in their lives and the bank senses that, and that's when you have distressed sales," Harcourts agent and mortgagee specialist David Savery said.
Nearly 150 people lost their homes in distressed sales in the three months to June 30, compared with just 95 in the first quarter - a jump of more than 50 per cent - CoreLogic figures provided exclusively to the Herald show.
In the year to June nearly 700 Kiwi homeowners lost their properties - 84 of them in Auckland. Though the annual figures were down on previous years, foreclosure numbers appear to be plateauing again after a period of sustained falls.
Five of the nation's 14 regions recorded a jump in forced sales in the past 12 months: Hawkes Bay (47), Otago (31), Southland (27), Tasman-Nelson-Marlborough (22) and West Coast (16).
Waikato had the most (117), followed by Manawatu-Wanganui (90), Auckland (84) and Wellington (76).
Mr Savery expected the number of distressed sales to increase in farming-reliant economic regions as conditions tightened.
He cited lower payouts to dairy farmers, who have just had their forecast payout slashed by Fonterra to $3.85 per kilo of milk solids, sucking $3.3 billion from suppliers and leaving the average dairy farmer facing a $250,000 loss this season.
Higher fuel prices, limited wage growth and muted provincial property markets were also factors.
"What's been keeping people alive is equity in their properties. But in any other centre [outside Auckland], it's going to be difficult for people to keep their equity in their property because there's been no real growth."
Farmers and related businesses would be worst hit from the falling returns, Mr Savery said.
"There's not a lot of margin so if the payout is reduced and sales come back ... we're going to see more and more mortgagee sales."
Economist Shamubeel Eaqub agreed more provincial foreclosures were likely but he did not expect a dramatic increase.
Mortgagee sales were seasonal and tended to lag any downturn so a jump in numbers would not become evident until next year, he said."If we think of the provinces, in many of those places they're ageing populations. It's not young people who have had recent mortgages, so it's going to be a fairly small percentage ... exposed to the risks.
"What we instead tend to see is lots of people really knuckling down and making do with what they've got and that sort of perpetuates the slowdown in the economy because people aren't out there spending, they're trying to pay off their mortgages."
Federated Farmers president William Rolleston said sucking billions of dollars from regional economies would put rural areas under stress. "Yes, I would expect the number [of foreclosures] to increase but I'm not predicting a wholesale crisis to appear ...
"I think banks have been pretty responsible in this situation and are looking to support their farmers."
Mortgagee sales
•149 nationwide from April to June - a jump of 56 on previous quarter.
•However, 685 in year to June 30 - a 36 per cent drop on previous 12 months.
•84 Auckland properties defaulted in the past 12 months compared with 164 in the previous year.
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是up 还是down真要仔细看数据啊，尤其是奥克兰。。。
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这叫JUMP。。。。。
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季度：
全国范围内，2季度的数目是150，一季度是95。涨幅几乎50%。
奥克兰 未知。
全年：
全国范围内，12个月的数目是685，之前12个月的数目是932。跌幅 大概 27%
奥克兰范围内，12个月的数目是164，之前12个月的数目是84。跌幅 大概 50%
似乎奥克兰很健康嘛。。。。
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Jump是大跌的意思吧。
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"What's been keeping people alive is equity in their properties. But in any other centre [outside Auckland], it's going to be difficult for people to keep their equity in their property because there's been no real growth."
mortgagee sale增长的地方都是主要城市以外，感觉是经济不好引起的农场被收回拍卖吧？在主要城市这一数值都在下降的情况下这些地方出现这种情况，说明他们需要物业价值的上涨来提振继续经营下去的信心，或者是让他们觉得自己辛苦工作还贷是值得的
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2014年6月到2015年6月全新西兰一共685个mortgagee sale
2013年6月到2014年6月全新西兰一共932个mortgagee sale
mortgagee sale大跌啊，不就证明经济好咯？
跟头条完全不是一回事啊，还是我看错了？？