新西兰看看今天NBR头条
在新西兰
If Quotable Value (QV) is to be believed, there is life in the New Zealand residential property boom yet and the joie de vivre is spreading out of Auckland to other areas.
In the year to May, average residential property prices lifted 9% across the country and 16% in Auckland.
QV identified price increases radiating out from Auckland to its southern satellite commutes of Tauranga, Hamilton, Cambridge, Pokeno and Hauraki District towns.
Nonetheless, Auckland’s property market appears to be set up for a fall, perhaps even a crash.
Efforts made to achieve this result are official and deliberate.
A “death of the little cuts” seems to be in the offing for Auckland’s bubbly property market as the government and Reserve Bank apply their various price-cutting tactics.
These methods are intended to diminish demand for Auckland property, and thereby prices, but their cumulative impact could be unpredictable and difficult to control.
An insidious move, likely to carve a lot of demand from China out of the market, has been the government’s announcement of a crackdown on non-resident property investors.
The new policy requiring non-resident property investors to open a New Zealand bank account, acquire an IRD number, and provide passport and home country tax details will put the kibosh on a lot of money coming in.
In opening a New Zealand bank account, foreigners have to comply with requirements of our Anti-money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act 2009 (AML/CFT), which impose stringent conditions on personal identity verification.
Some foreigners may even find themselves classified under AML/CFT as “politically-exposed persons” (PEPs), defined as “individuals who, by virtue of their position in public life, may be vulnerable to corruption.”
The government’s package exposes non-resident property investors to scrutiny by their home countries’ taxation authorities and other investigative forces thanks to international official data sharing arrangements.
Property lawyers are already starting to react to the new climate by demanding satisfactory identification from non-resident buyers as they seek to ensure deals are bona fide and not contaminated by potential issues over dodgy financing.
An Auckland conveyancing solicitor has passed on anecdotal evidence that word has got out to the Chinese community about the implications of the new rules.
She’s heard from Chinese investors, “who bought apartments off the plan who are now trying to sell as they don’t settle until after October and the developer’s solicitor is asking for proof of New Zealand residence and identity now.”
“This may be a bigger problem than I realised as I’m told that all the new apartment blocks that are selling off the plans have a heavy Chinese demand.”
“What the Chinese are apparently concerned about, I’m told by a Chinese contact, is information sharing with China.”
“Once they have to provide IRD numbers and bank account details, then that can be given to China and apparently there’s a lot of naughty money sloshing around here.”
“It’s the information sharing that’s worrying the ones I’ve spoken to.”
“At the moment we [conveyancing solicitors] only get proof of identity, not residence and tax status.”
The Chinese government’s anti-corruption drive and keen interest in the source and taxation of funds exported abroad by its citizens may be only one origin of sudden collapse in demand for Auckland property.
As noted previously in this column, there is reason to believe that a lot of money borrowed in China has found its way into the New Zealand property market.
A shock to the Chinese economy could prompt leveraged non-resident buyers to dump New Zealand properties and default on loans raised here.
A potential cause of this crunch is China’s stock market, which has hit stratospheric bubble territory, in part because of margin lending facilities newly made available to inexperienced punters.
Economic reality’s no longer reflected in the delusional prices being paid for shares in China.
A stock market crash in China would hurt the economy over there and affect New Zealand’s housing market.
Recent analysis of house buying patterns in New Zealand purporting to show that immigrants are driving the market and not non-residents has a couple of flaws in its reasoning.
Working out who’s influencing the market isn’t as simple as looking at a pie chart to identify the biggest segments.
Some investors are more influential than others because they are active price setters and they don’t have to be locally numerous.
China’s speculators crazy enough to ramp their country’s stock market up to the high heavens are quite capable of driving our house prices above economically justifiable levels.
There’s also the Chinese cultural practice of acting as de facto agent or trustee for others, in which case real beneficial interest is obscured.
This practice can affect the numbers of properties actually owned or controlled by foreigners that are ostensibly held by New Zealand residents, including immigrants.
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总的就是说政府和央行联手打击奥市房价会见一定效果，尤其是境外买家需要注册税号……顺道沙发一下
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谁让他们买楼花。。。哈哈
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death of a thousand cuts. 把那些贪官。偷税。炒家赶出市场。
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主要是資訊會給中國政府..這下那些貪官比較慘了
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咁撚長一篇雞腸。
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说得跟所有中国买家都是用黑钱买房似的
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我们也是辛苦攒的钱 省吃俭用的
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想多了。。。。
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天天BB打击中国投机客的，你自己那点可怜的预算就算没了中国土豪，你也照样住不进高尚社区，洗洗睡吧。。。
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一群傻逼，井底之蛙。。。。。还是数数自己一年能赚多少，别一天到晚贪官，炒家什么的
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中国跟美国一样是全球征税的。以前国内跟纽国没有关联也就算了。
10月后，房产跟个人税号结合，手里拿着中国护照的房主以后在纽国卖房也要在中国交税了， 呵呵。