新西兰No sign of a slowdown in Auckland yet---By Core Logic


在新西兰


In the past few weeks, the Government and Reserve Bank have moved to slow the Auckland property market through the introduction of several measures:

  • Keeping the Loan to Value Ratio (LVR) speed limits as they are in Auckland but loosening them across the rest of the country.
  • Requiring that investor loans in Auckland have a 30% deposit and that banks hold more capital against these investor loans. This will potentially raise those interest rates a fraction.
  • Ensuring that any sale of a residential property anywhere in NZ not owned by the occupier and sold within two years will incur capital gains tax.
  • Requiring foreign buyers to have a New Zealand bank account and IRD number plus a link back to their home country IRD number.

Wow! Quite a few changes in a short space of time, and all aimed at addressing increasing Auckland values.

The latest CoreLogic/QV Monthly House Price Index has just been released so let’s look at the current state of play. The topline result is that nationwide values are up 9.0% year on year and 3.1% over the past three months. However, the multi-speed nature of the New Zealand property market makes this number next to meaningless. We really have to look at Auckland separately.

Auckland values are rising much faster than anywhere else. No news there. In the past twelve months values have increased 16.1% and 5.4% over the past three months. Part of the reason for the rapid increase is a bit of catch-up following a slow-down in 2014, when the market reacted following the introduction of LVR speed limits in late 2013. Recent months have seen values recover some of that 2014 slow-down and return to the rates they were showing before the LVR speed limits came into effect.

The annual increase in Auckland is the fastest we have seen for several years, but it’s not the fastest it’s ever been. From 2002 to 2004, values were increasing at an annualised rate of over 15% and indeed peaked at over 21%. When we look back at the previous cycle to that, annual increases peaked at 26% in late 1994 and 22% in early 1996. So this latest rate of increase is actually not that extraordinary.

There is a strong historical correlation between an increase in sales activity and a subsequent increase in values. In recent months, sales activity in Auckland has been very strong, not far off what it was at the beginning of the previous boom in 2003/2004.

The CoreLogic/QV House Price Index is calculated using the latest three months of sales. Looking under the covers at data from just the past few weeks, there is no sign of a slowdown in Auckland values…yet. But the ink on the Government announcements is barely dry, so it will take a while for any slowdown to come through, if indeed they do.

So how are we looking across the other main centres? Really no change on what we have been seeing for months. Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin are all up less than 5% year on year. Tauranga is the only other main centre that is showing a slightly faster rate of increase, up 6.7% year on year and 4.1% over the past three months.

This increase in Tauranga values could be attributed to a spread of the ‘Auckland effect’ whereby buyers are now considering cheaper alternatives to the expensive Auckland market. Equally it could also jut be local effects. There is little evidence that values are increasing in other areas close to Auckland, including Thames/Coromandel, Hauraki, and the Waikato District. Matamata-Piako values began increasing slightly in early 2013 with a brief drop in late-2014 probably in response to the LVR speed-limits. The past twelve months have seen values there increase 5.4%. Is this increase really from Auckland buyers or something more local? Much more likely it is local.

Clearly this apparent spread of buyers and values from Auckland is one to watch.

The move by the Government to apply capital gains to properties re-sold within two years also looks to be a smart one that will primarily impact the Auckland market. Our analysis of sales turnover shows that in Auckland the most common ‘hold period’ is 1 year. Compare that to the rest of the country where properties are most commonly held for 7 to 8 years. This rapid turnover of properties is also typical of periods when markets are rapidly increasing, and we saw it across much of the country during the previous boom in 2003 to 2007. At the moment it is really only an Auckland phenomenon.

Overall, I still believe that Auckland values will continue to rise for the next couple of years but at a slightly slower rate. I also don’t expect to see the rest of the country to follow Auckland up anytime soon.

Jonno Ingerson, Director of Research, CoreLogic NZ Ltd

10 June 2015




评论
没人能让这个火车头慢下来。

不过迟早会出轨

新西兰房产

震惊!原来倒灌党全都偷偷买房了!

新西兰某倒灌党大V竟然亲口承认自己已经有房了!宣传裸斩就是为了自己下一套投资房抄底!最可悲的是本打算买自住房却没主见被人当枪使最后还说声谢谢啊。 评论 刚需一直都存在,无非 ...

新西兰房产

银行也纠错?改变短期房价预测

新西兰BNZ drastically lowers house price forecast, says market had 'false start' 这个时候突然意识到了问题所在?之前不是四大行天天喊今年增长2-5% 吗? 才一个月不到就出来承认错误了? 评论 The predictio ...

新西兰房产

求指教:关于房贷利率重新锁定

新西兰谢谢了先~~ 房贷一直放在ANZ六七年了。下个月需要重新锁定房贷,请问明白人,是到期之前自己选择一个ANZ的一年期(目前好像7.14)?还是找贷款中介选一个ANZ的? 或者,请贷款中介帮 ...

新西兰房产

利率不变,准备加息

新西兰https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127861/reserve-bank-has-left-official-cash-rate-unchanged-55-noting-domestic-inflation-slow 奄奄一息,仍要加息 评论 希望真的能加息,早死早超生。 评论 刁民!妖言惑众,煽乱房 ...

新西兰房产

811个月定存涨到了6.4%

新西兰另外MILFORD ASSETS MANAGEMENT还有一款旗舰产品,不是KIWISAVER, 不是KIWISAVER, 不是KIWISAVER。 是INVESTMENT FUND, 连续十年稳定增长。 10年收益164.02%, 年化收益率是14.02%。如果家里有老人的,你懂 ...

新西兰房产

都说房价房市爹爹爹

新西兰但我看基督城房市很好呀 很多再盖 wigram mall旁边已经开工 几十套貌似卖掉了大部分 评论 基督城房价低,付了20%首付以后,贷款也就50-70万,基本没有压力。奥克兰这几年买house的,随便 ...

新西兰房产

请教关于City的公寓

新西兰孩子要去city上学,想买个小的apartment,但是听说很多apartment都有问题啊,漏水什么的,还有产权都是租赁的, 有没有过来人分享一些信息呢,能不能买,哪个楼盘省心一些,或者还是租 ...

新西兰房产

mlgb的联储和央行

新西兰文中说的服务性通胀就是我们所说的NON TRADEABLE INFLATION 所有国家都这个样子,主要是中央政府和地方政府效率低下,导致地方债务常年堆积,必须涨RATES来增加营收,不然地方政府怕破产 ...

新西兰房产

不谈房,就说说不跟风美国的日本

新西兰这些东西太高大上,草民的我看不懂 评论 砖家说了 崩盘又要开始了,坐稳了 定存什么的,锁在最高点,或者找剑客买基金。 妥妥活镰刀,等危机过去,全球都是优质资产。 哈哈哈哈 ...

新西兰房产

怎么知道附近房子卖出了多少钱?

新西兰怎么知道附近房子卖出了多少钱?怎么估算自己的房子在当前能卖多少钱?有什么网站可看吗? 评论 realestate.co.nz。找个中介最直接,因为房子之间差异很大,一般人不明白,你自己估 ...

新西兰房产

重磅!重磅!重磅!DTI来了

新西兰https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/127974/reserve-bank-says-banks-will-have-comply-new-dti-rules-july-1-while-loan new DTI the banks will have to adhere to: 20% of new owner-occupier lending to borrowers with a DTI ratio over 6; and ...