新西兰一个观察奥克兰几十年的美国城市发展史研究人
在新西兰
Walt Glazer: Time to prick the housing bubble
5:00 AM Thursday Feb 12, 2015
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Over the past 40 years Auckland has become a world-class city. But what will happen in the future? No one knows, today, but as an American urban historian who has watched the city's rise since 1975, and has spent the past two months here, I see signs that you are all living in a bubble.
In 1976, after a year as Visiting Fulbright Professor at the University of Auckland, the Listener asked me to write my impressions of the city.
At that time many residents had an inferiority complex about their city and town planners were critical of "suburban sprawl". I emphasised its natural advantages, multi-cultural population and relaxed outdoor lifestyle.
I predicted "by the year 2000 Auckland will be one of the world's most prosperous and popular new breed of cities - 'suburban centres in the sun' - with more than a million people spread from Wellsford to Hamilton [enjoying] plenty of sunshine, fresh air and clean water."
I was right. Today Auckland is ranked within the top cities of the world, based on a thriving economy and high levels of satisfaction attracting millions of immigrants and tourists.
But what about the future? Everyone agrees there is a housing shortage and prices are unaffordable for many new buyers. Experts say values are inflated and the market overheated. Some are now predicting a downturn of 5 to 20 per cent.
After two months living in Auckland, talking to people everywhere and following the local media, I have an overwhelming impression that you are living in a "bubble" of inflated housing prices and affluent lifestyles.
This bubble is based largely on credit and confidence that the good times will continue.
It supports a new affluent lifestyle: fancy homes, flash cars, fine dining and having fun.
Nearly everyone is involved, directly or indirectly, as consumers, investors and workers. If you can't afford to buy a home, spend your money today on food, drink, toys and travel.
But bubbles always burst: the smart money exits, others lose their home equity (or worse) and everyone suffers from the economic consequences. Properties are abandoned, houses become run down, rates go unpaid followed by unemployment and crime. It has happened in American cities; it could happen here in Auckland.
When I arrived here in 1975 I read a book about New Zealand by Austin Mitchell, The Half Gallon Quarter-Acre Pavlova Paradise, a satirical description of the prevailing egalitarian, suburban Kiwi lifestyle based on widespread home ownership. Houses were affordable and government helped new buyers.
Today things are very different. Housing has become a financial investment and personal statement of social status and lifestyle. Everyone talks about real estate: the media pump it with news about record prices and advertising with alluring stories and pictures.
But, in many respects, housing is special: the basis of a middle-class society. It is a major sector of the economy providing jobs and represents the main asset of most families. Neighbours living together form communities and support local institutions.
Now, however, housing has become the primary focus of capital investment. Owners don't buy houses just to live in but to appreciate in value. And banks now invest most of their money in mortgages rather than more productive small businesses loans. They all hope for (and require) the bubble to keep growing.
Some people say this is just the free market acting naturally and that it will adjust itself in the future. But others doubt this and worry about the human consequences. History is full of stories about bubbles that ended unhappily.
The other (positive) bubble Auckland lives in is your unique natural advantages: the temperate climate, clear air and water, beaches and bush nearby that support a suburban lifestyle. This is your special appeal today and will be your main attraction tomorrow.
Auckland faces a choice about its future: the Unitary Plan. Should the city concentrate development of its core, with high density housing and public transportation, or allow expansion on the periphery, with better roads and services? Should Auckland plan to become the Hong Kong of the South Pacific (a high-density, polluted, unaffordable money-centre) or remain a Kiwi oasis of security for the future?
If you agree Auckland's property values and affluent lifestyle are inflated, housing is important and your natural attractions and suburban lifestyle are unique, then focus on deflating your property values/lifestyle and making Auckland a more affordable, liveable, cosmopolitan "suburban centre in the sun" for everyone.
- Walt Glazer is a retired American urban historian, who lived in Auckland from 1975-85, has visited often since but now lives in cold, snowy Cleveland, Ohio
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几天前herald上看了，没有什么干货啊，也没说什么对策
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任何泡沫的破灭都需要契机.我想他可能不想猜时间点和契机吧.很难猜.
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不是，他的意思是，政府应该做点什么了，主动的刺破这个泡沫，但做什么怎么做语焉不详。
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07年的高点，08年的危机，最后跌了才多少。。。。。。早晚有回调，但期望不要太大
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看过的。记得他的观点是奥克兰要么转换成香港东京这样的高密度多公寓城市要么维持低人口绿色城市。像现在这样不伦不类的一边经济发展人口膨胀一边还要维持低密度人口式的绿色城市必然引起房屋供应紧张而导致房地产恶性升值
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什么世界顶级的城市，AUCKLAND还不及北京的通县！我来奥克兰第一感觉就是我擦~下乡啦~到通县啦~
什么房地产泡沫，不能支撑房价，别逗了，美国人懂中国人吗？只要放咱中国人来，奥克兰现在的中位数就是个笑话~在大陆谁家拿不出100万人民币（要没100W我估计也出不来国了，早起体力工作飘出来的请忽略），有这20W纽币在目前这种银行松动的房贷条件下撬动百万的房子根本就是轻而易举。而且在北京上海广州深圳聚集着大量的已经购房但没有当地户口的人群，他们在30岁左右，有房，有孩子，没户口，这些人是最想来新西兰让孩子接受更好教育的，这些人只要将一线城市的房子卖一套，这边就足够50~60万全款购房。
关键是新西兰政府要靠房价活着呀，各种相关产业需要拉升虚假的经济数据啊~
嘿嘿~总之当政府桑性病狂的保房价，记住！你必须同样丧心病狂的购房！抢房！夺房！
很简单，你只要晚1年！就要比别人多奋斗5年10年！因为房子已经是划分阶层的一个工具。一旦阶层固定，就很难上下移动了。
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Hal........好文章
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分析的不错，但是最后说房子成为阶级划分的标杆有点夸张，房子最多也只是从生活必需品变成了奢侈品
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沒有什麼特別的見解 不外乎又是密度（需求）與房價之簡單二元聯繫 有些人就喜歡做這樣簡單推論 以為多建房子 密度增加房價就會下調 他大概不太知道香港的居住密度已經高到不能再高 但房價也一樣高到他不能想像的 證明這個什麼城市歷史學家 (urban historian) 根本對亞洲城市不了解 他要說的重點其實可能是人們對房地產已經由單純的安居變成投資產品這個觀念轉變 - 不過這是現在和奧克蘭才有的現象嗎？
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那你怎么没移民通县呢？
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最后那几句分析的很透彻，已有房产（资产）的人确实是后来的只靠打工收入的人无法逾越的，收入和资产比已经回到历史新低，以后只会往更低的方向发展，所以大家为了自己和下一代，都该知道怎么做了吧
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他的意思是房产就是资产，资产的有无和多少其实也就是划分社会阶层的最准确标准了
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對啊 其實大家都應該移民去北京通县才對 為什麼都來錯了奧克蘭呢？
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各位讲的都有道理.与专制国家的中国不同.这里一人一票.人民生活出问题了,政府的压力会很大,面临下课.这波房价上升如此厉害,一个主要原因是国内来的留学生大买.其中很多人是负有把贪官奸商亲属的资产转移出国的任务.所以我们看到很多匪夷所思的高价房.他们的钱来得容易,不用太担心房价的下行风险.可是当地的移民确实靠劳动致富,风险承受力也不同.我遇到清洁工,刷油漆的都背着债买了百万以上的房.年收入只有4-5万的也靠住房连环抵押买了3栋.我汗... 没有永远持续上升的市场.一旦市场掉头,结果可能是悲惨了.没了工作,靠一些房租,还要还贷款,大多数的家庭能支撑多久?这次由于银行的深度介入地产,经济下行的话,银行可能出大问题,各行各业会被拉下去.失业率会飙升.看10,20年也许房价还会涨很多,但路途中会有大波折.投资者得看看自己的情况,客观地判断自己能不能扛得住波动. 如果赌输了,下一代的幸福可能也会赔进去.
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嘿嘿~
你怎么知道我打通县来~？
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再加一句,中国经济真得不行了. 一个朋友在卖方.一线城市,最好的中心地带,挂市场价.足足耗了6个月才只有一个人出了价买了此房.钱还不能一步到位.中国的资产流动性已很差了.有钱的都有了房,只想卖方.没钱的也永远买不起.做生意的日子都不好过,基本都是一屁股债.那天硬着陆了,在国内海外的资产也得卖.转眼通缩和老龄化已到了眼前.后果大家都知道的,我就不多说了.关键是,当越来越多的人想卖房套现时,踩踏就会发生.所谓国人是个人都有几百万的说法不靠铺.大部分是房产的纸上富贵. 还有就是人民币能撑多久也是个问题. 这几天周围几个国内成功人士都开始要挂牌賣房.不是好兆头.
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http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new ... p;objectid=11400453
各国人民的评语.
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那你就更说不过去了，你本身就是通县的，通县又比新西兰好那么多，那还来新西兰干嘛！自己抽自己嘴巴啊！
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有个住remuera的白人朋友，上次对我感叹他在2006，2007年没挡住诱惑而投资失败，直到现在还在疗伤。家里缺现金，只能把现在涨到200万的房子出租一部分，感觉很不爽。
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我观察二月以来两周的时间trade Me 上挂牌的房突然猛增，从六千多增加到八千中了，预计还会更多突破一万以上，这种时候应该观察，不要轻易下手，估计半年会知道泡沫破不破了。不明白为什么华人还是猛劲的买呢。
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NZ出口到中国的年总额在100亿新元左右。如果中国经济不行了，那么这里的红酒，牛羊肉，木材，乳制品，奶粉行业马上崩溃，从而带动房产衰败全面衰退。对NZ来说欧洲美国都是指望不上的，澳洲也会跟着中国衰退，经济唯一能抱的大腿就是中国。如果中国经济硬着陆那么到时候就别指望没了工作收入福利的KIWI会善待华人而不是把华人当成替罪羊送去做肥皂。
所以我们这些在NZ的华人，其实都是托了中国经济发展的福。唱衰中国经济是我们自己在挖自己的坟墓
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我抽我你来看看啊，我连你一起抽~
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媒体说挂拍房源在减少. 看来还是数字说明一切.要赚钱得自己做足功课.不能轻信他人.
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基于事实的分析与主观唱衰是两码事.要是和中国做生意的人都会体会到现在的艰难.
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现在TRADE ME 的房源比realestate.co.nz的房源少了很多， realestate.co.nz出售房源（AUCKLAND）今天已达到九千中了。
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如同股市,大调整前上升斜率会变陡峭.我一个当地朋友,家里有钱,但前2个月父母把住了几代人的房也卖了.他年收百万.
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还是得跟成功人士学啊!
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其实这波行情和历史上的每一波房子上涨行情都一样，没什么不正常的。新西兰每十年都有一次房产上涨的时候。
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竟然都涨到200万了，卖了换个便宜的区去住吧，这样就应该能解决问题了