在新西兰
The Day The Bubble BurstsPosted on 22 January 2015 by Olly N
One of New Zealands leading KiwiSaver managers is warning there could be a correction in the property market.
link:
http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/experts-prepare-for-housing-market-collapse-2015012218#axzz3PDPhFD4F
More hog wash from “experts” who know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
There is no chance whatsoever of a crash in the present climate unless there is some major catastrophic event ( another GFC i.e.) . The market will level off and stablise some time for sure, but good money will still be made even in a flat market. If ever the market did crash as predicted – then the building industry will be wiped out (together with most of the whizz kid money managers) as the country sinks into the biggest depression since 1929.
I’ve been through several booms and busts and can tell when the market is on the edge - and it isn’t even close.
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太晚了。能简单说说， 好像说说是跌还是涨？
His warning is echoed by Westpac's chief economist, who says prices will fall - not now, but within a couple of years.
Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/experts-prepare-for-housing-market-collapse-2015012218#ixzz3QlynCrqE
那看来2018房价跌是对的。
Mr Stephens is not predicting a crash, but he does think prices will fall 5 percent by the end of 2018
Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/nznews/experts-prepare-for-housing-market-collapse-2015012218#ixzz3QlzG3gSB
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Compare with the growth of 13 percent in 2014, the 5 percent after 3 years is ignorable
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我挺喜欢那句＂unless there is some major catastrophic event＂，觉得今年应该会有很大几率能看到，前一阵的卢布瞬间崩溃和上个月瑞朗精心制造出来的微型海啸都像只是预演，等三月份欧元正式开始QE后我们就块看到有没有什么＂major event＂了
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对我来说，除非大国之间发生战争，其他都是小事。2008年的 GFC 都经历过了，还怕啥？退一步讲，在2008年GFC 那一阵子，这里的房价也没有雪崩式的下跌。
其实很多事情不要想得太复杂，只要简单的回归到事情的本质即可，就经济层面而言，这本质就是：demand and supply. 08年的GFC， 表面上是次贷危机，实质是由于美国造房太多导致房屋供应过剩造成的。在02-08年的经济繁荣期，很多产品都被大量的制造供应市场，这一期间供需关系一直在微妙的起着变化，从一开始的供不应求，到慢慢的供需平衡，再到供大于求，所以到了一定的时间供需发生逆转时，经济危机就爆发了。
从前年开始的大宗商品下跌，到去年的石油价格暴跌，虽然其中有一些其他因素，但总体没有摆脱供需关系这一economy fundamental.
可以说从2008年开始的金融危机，到现在为止，所有供应过剩的东西都得到了充分的消化。部分产品已经又回到了供不应求的状态，比如，典型的奥克兰房屋供应不足。因此未来几年世界经济我很乐观，我们又会回到一个盛世时代。
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乘你所言，希望一路顺风顺水！
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Lease说的都实现了，他说房价上涨我没看到，可是看到说股市涨。
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房价上涨你没看到？
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是说涨了以后才看到,之前预言的时候没看到。不过现在房价上涨我也视而不见,看不见看不见就是不买就是不买买也买不起。