新西兰Current Auckland Property Demand & Supply

在新西兰

This is true fundamental.

Surging migration means demand for housing in Auckland will outstrip supply by a considerable margin              Posted in Property                                         June 18, 2014 - 03:21pm, Greg Ninness                    

Auckland could be about to face one of its worst housing shortages in more than 10 years due to the current surge in migration.

Population and building consent figures suggest construction of new homes in the Auckland region has not kept pace with its burgeoning population since 2005, but as the region’s population growth accelerates, the housing shortage could be about to take a turn for the worse.

The accompanying table shows the Auckland Region’s population growth from 2004 to 2013, as estimated by Statistics NZ.
It shows that from 2005 to 2013, Auckland’s overall population growth has been reasonably consistent, at about 20,000 to 25,000 new residents a year.

But that could be about to blow out to about 42,000 new residents a year if current migration trends continue, increasing the pressure on the region’s already tight housing supply.



Census data suggests that the average household size in Auckland has been between 3 and 3.1 residents per dwelling over the last decade

Assuming an average household occupancy of 3.1, there would need to be 8065 new dwellings added to its housing stock for every 25,000 new residents.

The last time the supply of new dwellings exceeded the region’s population growth was 2004 - 2005, but that was driven by the shoebox apartment building boom in the CBD.

Building consent figures suggest that the supply of new homes has been falling woefully short of what has been needed since 2006, when the region’s population grew by an estimated 24,100, which using average occupancy of 3.1 people per household, would have required an additional 7,774 homes.

But only 7,250 new dwellings were consented during that period, leaving a shortfall of 524 homes.

            




That shortfall got bigger every year and peaked at 4,380 homes in the year to June 2011, before dropping back in 2012 (shortfall 2771 homes) and 2013 (shortfall 1,689 homes) as building activity rose to meet demand.

Those shortfalls are significant because until the supply of homes starts to exceed demand again, they are cumulative.

Equivalent of Hawke's Bay population added to Auckland in 7 years

From June 2006 to June 2013 the region’s population is estimated to have increased by 156,400, roughly equivalent to the entire population of Hawke's Bay, including the cities of Napier and Hastings.

        To accommodate all those extra people, 50,451 new homes should have been built, but between June 2006 and June 2013 only 32,352 new dwellings were consented in Auckland, leaving an accumulated shortfall of 18,189 homes.

The figures for the 12 months to June this year are not yet available, but if the trends until April this year continue until the end of this month, Auckland’s housing shortfall could have ballooned out 24,943 homes, largely due to a surge in migration numbers.

It is often assumed that overseas migration is the main contributor to Auckland’s explosive population growth but that’s not the case.

Statistics NZ estimates that from 2011 to 2013, the region’s population gains from net external migration (the difference the number of people arriving from overseas to live in the region and those departing to live overseas) accounted for about a quarter of its growth. The rest was due to internal migration (people moving to Auckland from other parts of the country) and the region’s natural increase in its population (the extent to which births exceed deaths). But in the 12 months to June this year, growth from migration is likely to be much higher.

That’s because in the year to April, the latest period for which figures are available, the national net migration gain was 34,366, compared with just 4776 in the previous 12 months, caused by a 13.3% rise in the number of immigrants coming to this country, and a 21.8% decrease in the number of people leaving to live elsewhere.

Auckland is by far the biggest destination for migrants coming to this country, and Statistics NZ estimated that two thirds of the net population gain from migration in the year to June 2013 occurred in Auckland.

If that figure holds true for the current year, Auckland could be looking at a net increase in its population from migration of 25,500 in the year to June, a near five fold increase on the figure for the previous 12 months.

And if internal migration and the natural increase in the region’s population continue at previous level, the region’s total population could have increased by about 42,000 by the end of this month, compared with a year earlier, equivalent to the population of Wanganui.

Housing that many people comfortably would require around 13,548 new homes to be built and although residential building activity in Auckland has been steadily increasing, the current rate of construction is nowhere near enough to meet such a big surge in demand.

Shortfall of 25k homes since 2005
If the rate of residential building consents issued up until April continues, it’s likely that only around 6,794 dwelling consents will have been issued in the year to June, leaving a shortfall for the year of 6,754 dwellings and taking the accumulated shortfall since 2005 to about 25,000 homes.

That ongoing shortfall between supply and demand is probably the main reason that house prices in Auckland have so far largely resisted the onslaught the residential mortgage Loan to Valuation restrictions the Reserve Bank introduced last year, and more recently the impact of rising mortgage interest rates, while prices in most other major centres except Christchurch, have been flat or falling.

The figures will give anyone renting or looking to buy a home in Auckland little to cheer about because the surge in demand is likely to, at the every least, support currently high property prices and rental levels and has the potential to push them higher.
But property developers, landlords and people who already own a home will be laughing because the increased demand and limited supply could lift the value of existing homes and increase their owners’ equity, and landlords will be buoyed by the prospect of improved rental yields and equity levels.

However finding additional properties to add to their portfolios at prices that could provide an adequate return could become more difficult, because in the current market cycle, property prices have tended to rise faster than rents.

Housing Supply & Demand
Auckland Region
Year to June	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014*
Estimated population	1,326m	1,349m	1,373m	1,396m	1,417m	1,439m	1,462m	1,486m	1,508m	1,529m	1,571m
Annual increase	28,400	22,900	24,100	23,100	20,700	21,800	23,300	24,100	21,600	21,800	42,000
New dwellings required**	9,161	7,387	7,774	7,451	6,677	7,032	7,516	7,774	6,968	7,032	13,548
New dwelling consents	12,937	9,435	7,250	6,781	5,769	3,212	3,656	3,394	4,197	5,343	6,794
surplus /deficit	3,776	2,048	-524	-670	-908	-3,820	-3,860	-4,380	-2,771	-1,689	-6,754
Net migration to Auckland	12,150	6,814	7,753	8,319	6,134	8,611	8,805	6,220	5,079	5,286	25,500
Dwellings required for migrants**	3,919	2,198	2,501	2,684	1,979	2,778	2,840	2,006	1,638	1,705	8,225
*Year to June 2014 figures are indicative forecasts by interest.co.nz, based on migration and building consent data to April.
** Assumes one new dwelling required for every 3.1 extra people.
Source of data: Statistics NZ.											评论 沙发，对于有房阶或者要卖房的人是好消息，对于要买房的人是坏消息。 一句话：买房要抓紧买，卖房可以再等等 评论 这是好消息，人口达到一定密度，各种公共设施可以上一个台阶 啥时候奥克兰市区到近郊的铁路转到地下，就成为发达大都市了 评论 数据说明问题：后悔已来不及了，那就立即买房！该下手时就下手---不然是否又要损失$289/day(北岸）？ 评论 真的 什么时候奥克兰有地铁了 就是发达城市了 评论 所以投资房产要看大方向，比如，现在是不是牛市，如果是，那么支持这牛市的基本因素是否依然存在，比如，demand>supply, 经济指标指示经济在持续向好，人口增长依然强劲，如果这些因素都在，那么买进就是正确的选择。纠结于短期的市场状况和预测未来短短几个月房价是升是跌意义不大。 评论 顶。。。。 评论 买进就是正确的选择。纠结于短期的市场状况和预测未来短短几个月房价是升是跌意义不大。+++++1 评论 28,400 22,900 24,100 23,100 20,700 21,800 23,300 24,100 21,600 21,800 42,000 这数据你信？奥克兰是刚被发现的新大陆？呵呵。继续拿着别卖，市面上现有的房都收囊中。买了就赚。一年后各各都是亿万富翁。之前不还有数据好多区都停涨了。赶紧买啊。哈哈 评论 市区公寓即将大量建成 会有什么影响呢？ 评论 http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_ ... ulation-change.aspx 评论 这有什么不信的？ 奥克兰每年人口增加约2万5千人， 现在人口1百50万， 再过20年达到约2百万。 与统计局的预测和统计相差无几啊。 评论 他还活在梦想中 评论 是啊，这又不是中国统计局，呵呵。。。 评论 我是说最后一组数据。呵呵。是的有些人就是活在梦里。呵呵。 评论 最后一组数据是Dwellings required for migrants， 有什么问题呢? 评论 TA是说从21800跳到42000，可能是觉得太夸张。 评论 今年到7月份为止已经4W1了，看来到年底要超过4W2不是很难哦 http://www.interest.co.nz/news/7 ... uk-biggest-migratio Net migration hit an 11 year high in July and looks set to surge to new record highs later this year as New Zealanders come home from Australia and more students arrive on working visas. Economists said the stronger-than-expected figures suggested net migration was headed for 50,000, which would be well above the scenarios used by the Reserve Bank and Treasury in warning of higher interest rates. Statistics New Zealand reported seasonally adjusted net migration of 4,540 in July, which was the highest monthly figure since the 4,700 that arrived in February 2003. This took annual net migration to 41,000, which was the highest net gain since the 41,200 seen in the year to August 2003. It was up from net migration of 10,600 in the previous year to July 2013. ..... 评论 小老鼠把我这个老帖翻出来啦， 呵呵。 所以， 各位其实都不用再争到底现在该不该买房。 这强烈的需求摆在这儿了。 评论 u believe wat u believe.照着这个样子发展的话，马上就很多人睡大街了。 评论 这不是你信不信的问题，这是个不争的事实。如果你连事实都不信的话，那么我也只能无语了。 评论 凡事不要说太绝，留点余地。论坛里整天一群人嚷嚷什么房价必升或房价必跌的还互相谁也不服谁的，有意思吗？房价或升或跌都不重要，关键是结合自己的实际情况理智分析，不要贪，也不要怕。顺便提醒大家一下，现在已经快九月了，美联署开始退出QE进入加息通道最早今年八月最晚也不会超过明年年初了，最近中国也主动挑起针对欧美日在华企业的反垄断调查，至于到时真会发生什么事，谁也不知道啊，但我只知道这次的交锋不会是小摩擦。投资的自己看着办吧。 评论 当然， 是不能说的太绝。 说不定明天就是世界末日， 投不投资都没所谓了， 呵呵。 美联储退出QE才知道啊， 美国马上进入加息通道才知道啊。 为什么加息啊？ 说明美国经济复苏才加息啦， 这又不是什么坏事。 中国与这些外资的摩擦这些年来就没停止过，只是用不同的形式而已， 能有什么大风浪？ 评论 有人是先有观点再找证据，证据反了就直接忽略，哈哈，很厉害 评论 lol.看来你不太懂金融的东西。 评论 洗耳恭听。。。。 评论 房子一般说，长期看涨，要早买。 评论 呵呵，美联署加息是因为美联署说的＂美国经济好转预期＂，美联署说的这个话你也敢信？那前美某总统说过的我打伊拉克是因为它有大杀器你也就信了？美元开始加息那一天就一定是某几个国家要准备陆续倒下去的时候了，走下坡路的美欧要联合引发一场新金融经济危机趁机洗劫全球这已是不争的事实，至于这些准备被宰割的国家和中国如何着手应对我想我都没必要多说了吧，连美联署加息究竟要干啥你都不弄不清楚人家的目的，其他的我再说怕你也消化不了。世界末日不至于，因为最后总有人收拾残局重建新规矩的，但这个斗争转变的过程是曲折的，新西兰的房市或多或少肯定受其局势的发展冲击，因为离摊牌的关键时刻已经临近，所以投资才需慎重，当然你看不见海啸要来不怪你，只是出于人道主义精神该提醒你的义务也是要尽的。 评论 我只能说你太会意淫了。没那么复杂。这个世界几乎所有的事情，只要你读懂了人性，你就知道怎样去应对，当然包括投资。 评论 是的，绝对是共济会的阴谋！ 上一篇：房子交割后有关电的问题 下一篇：东区的步道算不算卖点？ 相关推荐 新西兰房产 经高人指点！终于明白为什么南岛的跌跌党突然 新西兰自从妓毒撑黑历史被挂在热门推荐后，妓毒撑撸色们吓出一身冷汗夜不能寐！疯狂忽悠竞争者！避免其他买家影响自己北岛购房逃离魔窟计划！ 评论 大胆！基督城卢瑟每周单单吃定存利 ... 新西兰房产 ONE ROOF吹鼓手Tony Alexander居然变成了大空头？ 新西兰https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/t ... call-it-quits-45557 这个文章写的如此绝望，和他5月之前的风格是360度大转弯. 才一个月，新西兰经济就奔溃了？ 才一个月，才意识到CASH FLOW的重要性？？？？ ... 新西兰房产 震惊！原来倒灌党全都偷偷买房了！ 新西兰某倒灌党大V竟然亲口承认自己已经有房了！宣传裸斩就是为了自己下一套投资房抄底！最可悲的是本打算买自住房却没主见被人当枪使最后还说声谢谢啊。 评论 刚需一直都存在，无非 ... 新西兰房产 “卖不动又买不起”！新西兰房市陷入僵局 新西兰拍卖活动似乎正在进入冬季节奏，过去几周，奥克兰地区的参拍房源数量处于持平状态，流拍房源较多，整体的成交率在29%至33%之间。Interest网站统计的最新数据显示，截至5月23日晚上 ... 新西兰房产 银行也纠错？改变短期房价预测 新西兰BNZ drastically lowers house price forecast, says market had 'false start' 这个时候突然意识到了问题所在？之前不是四大行天天喊今年增长2-5% 吗？ 才一个月不到就出来承认错误了？ 评论 The predictio ... 新西兰房产 求指教：关于房贷利率重新锁定 新西兰谢谢了先~~ 房贷一直放在ANZ六七年了。下个月需要重新锁定房贷，请问明白人，是到期之前自己选择一个ANZ的一年期（目前好像7.14）？还是找贷款中介选一个ANZ的？ 或者，请贷款中介帮 ... 新西兰房产 有人帮忙解释这个房子CV这么高、为什么卖这么便 新西兰https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/search?search_string=31%20McClintock%20Road 评论 菜b才看cv，商场如战场，价格从来就没有一个定数，都是双方博弈的结果，附近销售状况，房产本身素质，大 ... 新西兰房产 各位房奴兄弟，我向大家解释一下央行为啥必须 新西兰1) 保汇率 欧美国家 没有工业，没有产业链，90%的产品依靠进口，汇率直接 决定了通胀率，这个与中国 相反。所以保汇率 权重很大。 2）货币超发+涨工资 印钱多了，工资高了，会推高 ... 新西兰房产 利率不变，准备加息 新西兰https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127861/reserve-bank-has-left-official-cash-rate-unchanged-55-noting-domestic-inflation-slow 奄奄一息，仍要加息 评论 希望真的能加息，早死早超生。 评论 刁民！妖言惑众，煽乱房 ... 新西兰房产 811个月定存涨到了6.4% 新西兰另外MILFORD ASSETS MANAGEMENT还有一款旗舰产品，不是KIWISAVER, 不是KIWISAVER, 不是KIWISAVER。 是INVESTMENT FUND， 连续十年稳定增长。 10年收益164.02%， 年化收益率是14.02%。如果家里有老人的，你懂 ... 新西兰房产 都说房价房市爹爹爹 新西兰但我看基督城房市很好呀 很多再盖 wigram mall旁边已经开工 几十套貌似卖掉了大部分 评论 基督城房价低，付了20%首付以后，贷款也就50-70万，基本没有压力。奥克兰这几年买house的，随便 ... 新西兰房产 2022/2023年买入的投资者，将在7月1日后夺门而出 新西兰利润还是有的，他们要跑路了，在现在LISTING中看出门道的自然也就看出来了。2年拦不住他们，守着微薄的利润开始跑路。 评论 有利润？你把我的收了吧 评论 没有利润的，你就慢慢守 ... 新西兰房产 请教关于City的公寓 新西兰孩子要去city上学，想买个小的apartment，但是听说很多apartment都有问题啊，漏水什么的，还有产权都是租赁的， 有没有过来人分享一些信息呢，能不能买，哪个楼盘省心一些，或者还是租 ... 新西兰房产 20182023新西兰人口增加了6%,住宅增加了9% 新西兰也就是说5年间住宅增长的速度比人口快5%,作为2019年买了一个大地破房的人，看到自己的资产过去三年缩水这么多，我也很痛心，但有什么办法？经济规律不可违啊。 https://www.interest.c ... 新西兰房产 mlgb的联储和央行 新西兰文中说的服务性通胀就是我们所说的NON TRADEABLE INFLATION 所有国家都这个样子，主要是中央政府和地方政府效率低下，导致地方债务常年堆积，必须涨RATES来增加营收，不然地方政府怕破产 ... 新西兰房产 不谈房，就说说不跟风美国的日本 新西兰这些东西太高大上，草民的我看不懂 评论 砖家说了 崩盘又要开始了，坐稳了 定存什么的，锁在最高点，或者找剑客买基金。 妥妥活镰刀，等危机过去，全球都是优质资产。 哈哈哈哈 ... 新西兰房产 想不想买成功企业家的房子，入手好时机 新西兰https://youtu.be/twU1eU1u8V4?si=ThufoWrUXfj6bOa4 八富老板卖自住房了，好时机入手北岸，毕竟现在3b不贵 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KoFcMKLdZ62QACFf5uZIUQ 评论 不买，买了M基金+50年定存组合。 直接躺平 评论 ... 新西兰房产 出租房市场也饱和了，下半年租客也不好找了。 新西兰还是数据说活吧， 现在奥克兰trademe的出租 listing已经 5278了，两周前是4897，半个月多了300多的listing, 小红书上全是要出租房子的中介和房东，卖不掉的房子就转到出租市场，这样只会让 ... 新西兰房产 怎么知道附近房子卖出了多少钱？ 新西兰怎么知道附近房子卖出了多少钱？怎么估算自己的房子在当前能卖多少钱？有什么网站可看吗？ 评论 realestate.co.nz。找个中介最直接，因为房子之间差异很大，一般人不明白，你自己估 ... 新西兰房产 重磅！重磅！重磅！DTI来了 新西兰https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/127974/reserve-bank-says-banks-will-have-comply-new-dti-rules-july-1-while-loan new DTI the banks will have to adhere to: 20% of new owner-occupier lending to borrowers with a DTI ratio over 6; and ...