新西兰Current Auckland Property Demand & Supply

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This is true fundamental.

Surging migration means demand for housing in Auckland will outstrip supply by a considerable margin              Posted in Property                                         June 18, 2014 - 03:21pm, Greg Ninness                    

Auckland could be about to face one of its worst housing shortages in more than 10 years due to the current surge in migration.

Population and building consent figures suggest construction of new homes in the Auckland region has not kept pace with its burgeoning population since 2005, but as the region’s population growth accelerates, the housing shortage could be about to take a turn for the worse.

The accompanying table shows the Auckland Region’s population growth from 2004 to 2013, as estimated by Statistics NZ.
It shows that from 2005 to 2013, Auckland’s overall population growth has been reasonably consistent, at about 20,000 to 25,000 new residents a year.

But that could be about to blow out to about 42,000 new residents a year if current migration trends continue, increasing the pressure on the region’s already tight housing supply.



Census data suggests that the average household size in Auckland has been between 3 and 3.1 residents per dwelling over the last decade

Assuming an average household occupancy of 3.1, there would need to be 8065 new dwellings added to its housing stock for every 25,000 new residents.

The last time the supply of new dwellings exceeded the region’s population growth was 2004 - 2005, but that was driven by the shoebox apartment building boom in the CBD.

Building consent figures suggest that the supply of new homes has been falling woefully short of what has been needed since 2006, when the region’s population grew by an estimated 24,100, which using average occupancy of 3.1 people per household, would have required an additional 7,774 homes.

But only 7,250 new dwellings were consented during that period, leaving a shortfall of 524 homes.

            




That shortfall got bigger every year and peaked at 4,380 homes in the year to June 2011, before dropping back in 2012 (shortfall 2771 homes) and 2013 (shortfall 1,689 homes) as building activity rose to meet demand.

Those shortfalls are significant because until the supply of homes starts to exceed demand again, they are cumulative.

Equivalent of Hawke's Bay population added to Auckland in 7 years

From June 2006 to June 2013 the region’s population is estimated to have increased by 156,400, roughly equivalent to the entire population of Hawke's Bay, including the cities of Napier and Hastings.

        To accommodate all those extra people, 50,451 new homes should have been built, but between June 2006 and June 2013 only 32,352 new dwellings were consented in Auckland, leaving an accumulated shortfall of 18,189 homes.

The figures for the 12 months to June this year are not yet available, but if the trends until April this year continue until the end of this month, Auckland’s housing shortfall could have ballooned out 24,943 homes, largely due to a surge in migration numbers.

It is often assumed that overseas migration is the main contributor to Auckland’s explosive population growth but that’s not the case.

Statistics NZ estimates that from 2011 to 2013, the region’s population gains from net external migration (the difference the number of people arriving from overseas to live in the region and those departing to live overseas) accounted for about a quarter of its growth. The rest was due to internal migration (people moving to Auckland from other parts of the country) and the region’s natural increase in its population (the extent to which births exceed deaths). But in the 12 months to June this year, growth from migration is likely to be much higher.

That’s because in the year to April, the latest period for which figures are available, the national net migration gain was 34,366, compared with just 4776 in the previous 12 months, caused by a 13.3% rise in the number of immigrants coming to this country, and a 21.8% decrease in the number of people leaving to live elsewhere.

Auckland is by far the biggest destination for migrants coming to this country, and Statistics NZ estimated that two thirds of the net population gain from migration in the year to June 2013 occurred in Auckland.

If that figure holds true for the current year, Auckland could be looking at a net increase in its population from migration of 25,500 in the year to June, a near five fold increase on the figure for the previous 12 months.

And if internal migration and the natural increase in the region’s population continue at previous level, the region’s total population could have increased by about 42,000 by the end of this month, compared with a year earlier, equivalent to the population of Wanganui.

Housing that many people comfortably would require around 13,548 new homes to be built and although residential building activity in Auckland has been steadily increasing, the current rate of construction is nowhere near enough to meet such a big surge in demand.

Shortfall of 25k homes since 2005
If the rate of residential building consents issued up until April continues, it’s likely that only around 6,794 dwelling consents will have been issued in the year to June, leaving a shortfall for the year of 6,754 dwellings and taking the accumulated shortfall since 2005 to about 25,000 homes.

That ongoing shortfall between supply and demand is probably the main reason that house prices in Auckland have so far largely resisted the onslaught the residential mortgage Loan to Valuation restrictions the Reserve Bank introduced last year, and more recently the impact of rising mortgage interest rates, while prices in most other major centres except Christchurch, have been flat or falling.

The figures will give anyone renting or looking to buy a home in Auckland little to cheer about because the surge in demand is likely to, at the every least, support currently high property prices and rental levels and has the potential to push them higher.
But property developers, landlords and people who already own a home will be laughing because the increased demand and limited supply could lift the value of existing homes and increase their owners’ equity, and landlords will be buoyed by the prospect of improved rental yields and equity levels.

However finding additional properties to add to their portfolios at prices that could provide an adequate return could become more difficult, because in the current market cycle, property prices have tended to rise faster than rents.

Housing Supply & Demand
Auckland Region
Year to June	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014*
Estimated population	1,326m	1,349m	1,373m	1,396m	1,417m	1,439m	1,462m	1,486m	1,508m	1,529m	1,571m
Annual increase	28,400	22,900	24,100	23,100	20,700	21,800	23,300	24,100	21,600	21,800	42,000
New dwellings required**	9,161	7,387	7,774	7,451	6,677	7,032	7,516	7,774	6,968	7,032	13,548
New dwelling consents	12,937	9,435	7,250	6,781	5,769	3,212	3,656	3,394	4,197	5,343	6,794
surplus /deficit	3,776	2,048	-524	-670	-908	-3,820	-3,860	-4,380	-2,771	-1,689	-6,754
Net migration to Auckland	12,150	6,814	7,753	8,319	6,134	8,611	8,805	6,220	5,079	5,286	25,500
Dwellings required for migrants**	3,919	2,198	2,501	2,684	1,979	2,778	2,840	2,006	1,638	1,705	8,225
*Year to June 2014 figures are indicative forecasts by interest.co.nz, based on migration and building consent data to April.
** Assumes one new dwelling required for every 3.1 extra people.
Source of data: Statistics NZ.											评论 沙发，对于有房阶或者要卖房的人是好消息，对于要买房的人是坏消息。 一句话：买房要抓紧买，卖房可以再等等 评论 这是好消息，人口达到一定密度，各种公共设施可以上一个台阶 啥时候奥克兰市区到近郊的铁路转到地下，就成为发达大都市了 评论 数据说明问题：后悔已来不及了，那就立即买房！该下手时就下手---不然是否又要损失$289/day(北岸）？ 评论 真的 什么时候奥克兰有地铁了 就是发达城市了 评论 所以投资房产要看大方向，比如，现在是不是牛市，如果是，那么支持这牛市的基本因素是否依然存在，比如，demand>supply, 经济指标指示经济在持续向好，人口增长依然强劲，如果这些因素都在，那么买进就是正确的选择。纠结于短期的市场状况和预测未来短短几个月房价是升是跌意义不大。 评论 顶。。。。 评论 买进就是正确的选择。纠结于短期的市场状况和预测未来短短几个月房价是升是跌意义不大。+++++1 评论 28,400 22,900 24,100 23,100 20,700 21,800 23,300 24,100 21,600 21,800 42,000 这数据你信？奥克兰是刚被发现的新大陆？呵呵。继续拿着别卖，市面上现有的房都收囊中。买了就赚。一年后各各都是亿万富翁。之前不还有数据好多区都停涨了。赶紧买啊。哈哈 评论 市区公寓即将大量建成 会有什么影响呢？ 评论 http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_ ... ulation-change.aspx 评论 这有什么不信的？ 奥克兰每年人口增加约2万5千人， 现在人口1百50万， 再过20年达到约2百万。 与统计局的预测和统计相差无几啊。 评论 他还活在梦想中 评论 是啊，这又不是中国统计局，呵呵。。。 评论 我是说最后一组数据。呵呵。是的有些人就是活在梦里。呵呵。 评论 最后一组数据是Dwellings required for migrants， 有什么问题呢? 评论 TA是说从21800跳到42000，可能是觉得太夸张。 评论 今年到7月份为止已经4W1了，看来到年底要超过4W2不是很难哦 http://www.interest.co.nz/news/7 ... uk-biggest-migratio Net migration hit an 11 year high in July and looks set to surge to new record highs later this year as New Zealanders come home from Australia and more students arrive on working visas. Economists said the stronger-than-expected figures suggested net migration was headed for 50,000, which would be well above the scenarios used by the Reserve Bank and Treasury in warning of higher interest rates. Statistics New Zealand reported seasonally adjusted net migration of 4,540 in July, which was the highest monthly figure since the 4,700 that arrived in February 2003. This took annual net migration to 41,000, which was the highest net gain since the 41,200 seen in the year to August 2003. It was up from net migration of 10,600 in the previous year to July 2013. ..... 评论 小老鼠把我这个老帖翻出来啦， 呵呵。 所以， 各位其实都不用再争到底现在该不该买房。 这强烈的需求摆在这儿了。 评论 u believe wat u believe.照着这个样子发展的话，马上就很多人睡大街了。 评论 这不是你信不信的问题，这是个不争的事实。如果你连事实都不信的话，那么我也只能无语了。 评论 凡事不要说太绝，留点余地。论坛里整天一群人嚷嚷什么房价必升或房价必跌的还互相谁也不服谁的，有意思吗？房价或升或跌都不重要，关键是结合自己的实际情况理智分析，不要贪，也不要怕。顺便提醒大家一下，现在已经快九月了，美联署开始退出QE进入加息通道最早今年八月最晚也不会超过明年年初了，最近中国也主动挑起针对欧美日在华企业的反垄断调查，至于到时真会发生什么事，谁也不知道啊，但我只知道这次的交锋不会是小摩擦。投资的自己看着办吧。 评论 当然， 是不能说的太绝。 说不定明天就是世界末日， 投不投资都没所谓了， 呵呵。 美联储退出QE才知道啊， 美国马上进入加息通道才知道啊。 为什么加息啊？ 说明美国经济复苏才加息啦， 这又不是什么坏事。 中国与这些外资的摩擦这些年来就没停止过，只是用不同的形式而已， 能有什么大风浪？ 评论 有人是先有观点再找证据，证据反了就直接忽略，哈哈，很厉害 评论 lol.看来你不太懂金融的东西。 评论 洗耳恭听。。。。 评论 房子一般说，长期看涨，要早买。 评论 呵呵，美联署加息是因为美联署说的＂美国经济好转预期＂，美联署说的这个话你也敢信？那前美某总统说过的我打伊拉克是因为它有大杀器你也就信了？美元开始加息那一天就一定是某几个国家要准备陆续倒下去的时候了，走下坡路的美欧要联合引发一场新金融经济危机趁机洗劫全球这已是不争的事实，至于这些准备被宰割的国家和中国如何着手应对我想我都没必要多说了吧，连美联署加息究竟要干啥你都不弄不清楚人家的目的，其他的我再说怕你也消化不了。世界末日不至于，因为最后总有人收拾残局重建新规矩的，但这个斗争转变的过程是曲折的，新西兰的房市或多或少肯定受其局势的发展冲击，因为离摊牌的关键时刻已经临近，所以投资才需慎重，当然你看不见海啸要来不怪你，只是出于人道主义精神该提醒你的义务也是要尽的。 评论 我只能说你太会意淫了。没那么复杂。这个世界几乎所有的事情，只要你读懂了人性，你就知道怎样去应对，当然包括投资。 评论 是的，绝对是共济会的阴谋！ 上一篇：房子交割后有关电的问题 下一篇：东区的步道算不算卖点？ 相关推荐 新西兰房产 东区 Flatbush 可负担好房 新西兰东区Flatbush 可负担联排小区 3房3卫浴 双车库 160平，带后花园 小区内门前配室外双车位，花园设备 L1 车库➕一房一卫浴 L2 客厅厨房➕室外BB Q阳台 L3 主人套➕一房一卫浴 邻居omiston mal ... 新西兰房产 28 crossandra drive mangere 2层砖和木weatherboard海景房出 新西兰Freehold地460m2室内新装修197m2.房子非常好，维护很新。4个大房，3个卫浴。3个厕。双车库。加了2个新空调。全新地毯。好区在pennisula park里。28 crossandra drive mangere,含8幸运数字。地势正好 ... 新西兰房产 市中心好地段两室一厅公寓私售 新西兰如题，位于市中心好地段的舒适两居公寓出售 公寓为复式结构，布局合理，动静分离。楼下是客厅，厨房和餐厅，带一个阳台，可以看到天空塔。楼上是卫生间和两个宽敞卧室，两个卧 ... 新西兰房产 精品地块 x5 ！Pukekohe快速增长地区之一，约180平 新西兰Pukekohe带有已批准的BC Plan出售地段 * 位于Pukekohe快速增长地区之一，永久产权，约180平方米（或多或少） * 51 Taukahiwi Road位于黄金地段，靠近Pukekohe的设施、商店、咖啡馆和娱乐设施 * 便 ... 新西兰房产 太阳能电池板和电池 新西兰请教一下有人装华为的太阳能电池板和电池吗？ 想知道新西兰大概价格还有那个公司在装 评论 新西兰最大的太阳能公司刚倒闭 评论 除非你是白天用电大户，或者整个价格被打下来了， ... 新西兰房产 上市房源10年历史新高, 房价疲软 新西兰只有华人中介自娱自乐，专门坑英文一般的同胞。 https://www.interest.co.nz/property/131070/average-asking-price-homes-sale-realestateconz-dropped-almost-29000-october-while 评论 这些文章论坛都发过了，挡不住匿 ... 新西兰房产 5步轻松搞定圣诞预算，让节日更嗨更省心！ 新西兰圣诞节到了，欢天喜地的同时别忘了预算！掌握这5步，让你的节日更快乐，钱包更轻松！ 1. 确定总预算 评论 还是国内好，股市暴涨，市场大赚钱机会多，高楼大厦灯红酒绿美女帅哥娱 ... 新西兰房产 圣诞消费季：背后的经济学与贷款市场洞察 新西兰圣诞节是观察经济活跃程度的最佳窗口。从零售销售额到短期贷款需求，消费季的表现揭示了消费者行为、市场动态与贷款市场之间的深刻联系。通过数据分析与案例研究，我们可以从 ... 新西兰房产 《新西兰2025年房价走势：低利率是否会成为关键 新西兰《新西兰2025年房价走势：低利率是否会成为关键推动力？》 随着新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）多次降息，OCR在2024年底降至4.25%，这是两年来的最低点。低利率的环境为购房者带来了机会，也 ... 新西兰房产 新作的水泥停车场问题 新西兰做好大概四五周了，还没用过，整个停车场一片白一片黑的像是大地图，很难看，像长了霉斑一样，还裂了很多长长的裂缝，也不知道什么原因，有知道为什么的吗，是水泥有问题还是 ... 新西兰房产 Offset Loan 是近年来在新西兰房贷市场中逐渐受到 新西兰Offset Loan 是近年来在新西兰房贷市场中逐渐受到关注的一种贷款方式。它是一种兼顾利息节省与资金灵活性的房贷工具，特别适合那些有一定存款基础且注重财务规划的借款人。在选择 ... 新西兰房产 2024新西兰房产市场：租金回落，房贷激增，风险 新西兰2024年，新西兰房地产市场出现了显著变化。尽管租金有所下降，但房贷市场依旧活跃，同时房价也表现出小幅回升。 首先，租金方面，数据显示全国房屋租金中位数维持在每周650纽币， ... 新西兰房产 2024年新西兰经济数据及展望 新西兰2024年新西兰经济数据及展望 GDP（国内生产总值） •2024年第三季度GDP萎缩1.0%，继第二季度修正后下降1.1%，已连续两个季度负增长，正式进入技术性衰退。这是1991年以来最大的连续两季 ... 新西兰房产 求东区各区汇总 新西兰记得以前看到过一个帖对奥克兰一些区做了个汇总，希望有大神可以对东区各区作一个比较新的汇总，让大家看房的时候做参考。先谢过。 评论 一般区的中位价格可以说明好坏 主要还 ... 新西兰房产 请教住新房的人 新西兰问问住新房的，你们冬天需要开暖气或空调么？没暖气，房子能有18度以上吗？ 评论 新房子所用的保温材料它自己本身不产生热量，只是起到室内与室外的保温隔热效果。也就是说：相 ... 新西兰房产 新年展望：2025年2月OCR决议及行业影响 新西兰新年展望：新西兰2025年2月OCR决议及行业影响 新年伊始，许多人怀抱着新的期待和计划迎接2025年。在经济领域，新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的官方现金利率（OCR）决议成为新年初备受关注的 ... 新西兰房产 总理，副总理为什么卖房？且听我分析：~ 新西兰你想看透任何事件的真相，最佳的方法就是换位思考，假如我现在就是这个总理，我看到的比你多，得到的真实报告比你多，我每天看到的是： 1）政府已经千疮百孔，到处缺钱，由于 ... 新西兰房产 关于对冲账户的几个问题 新西兰听说westpac的对冲账户是没有限额的，那我从别的银行转过去一笔房屋贷款，是否可以先固定半年，然后再变成对冲。然后再固定？ 是否可以这么操作？ 别的银行是一开始就要告诉是否 ... 新西兰房产 请教问题，减压阀。。。 新西兰如题，请教下减压阀的位置可能会在哪里？家里自来水水压一直极低。刚打开的水流毫不夸张如小狗撒尿。。。过了10来秒后能恢复“正常(开到最大水流差不多比铅笔粗细能大一圈)”。 ... 新西兰房产 没有工业产业链，经济将 陷入 移民+房地产 的死 新西兰没有工业产业链，经济无论你如何折腾最终都会陷入： 新移民+房地产 的死循环！特别是新澳加，如何摆脱这个循环？目前的政党都做不到 。 请看我之前的 贴在X party, 必须要产生一个 ...