在新西兰
Monday, Aug 04, 2014
Prime Minister says rents too low
The Prime Minister and REINZ Chief Executive, Helen O'Sullivan, were on 3 News talking sense on housing affordability. It is an excellent video to watch.
Ms O'Sullivan said "investors don't drive up prices because they are "rational" about how much they're prepared to pay, unlike people buying a home to live in. If the maths doesn't stack up, then they'll stop… where perhaps people who have fallen in love with a property, or who become what we call 'the nutter in the room' because they've been outbid for so many properties, they will go a long way to secure a property,"
An OECD report on NZ Housing claimed that housing was unaffordable because of the ratio of rental prices to house prices. But the link between rental and housing markets is tenuous, so that they operate quite separately.
Ms O'Sullivan says the discrepancy between house prices (which have risen more than 8% a year) and rents (which have only risen around 2.5%) is because people are choosing to live together in flatting situations or staying at home with their parents, rather than putting pressure on limited rental stock.
Prime Minister John Key agreed with this view and pointed to other studies that show housing affordability in NZ is not at crises levels. "There's lots and lots of ways you can cut and paste the data and measure whether your house prices are unaffordable or becoming less affordable or less unaffordable, whatever way you want to measure it," he said
The Prime Minister correctly states that "other indexes show that for first-time buyers, housing is 30 percent more affordable than it was in 2007".
The news article also covers Capital Gains Tax, which neither of them think will work.
"All that will happen is rents will go up," says Mr Key. "About a third of the population rent, for a variety of different reasons. If a capital gains tax was a magic bullet that worked, we'd support it."
You can see the full video at http://www.3news.co.nz/Desperation-pushing-up-prices-not-investors---REINZ/tabid/1607/articleID/344933/Default.aspx
评论
………和2007比喷了，那时候利率10%。
另外最大的问题不是房价太高，是收入太低
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房租已经不便宜， 一般三房都要四五百， 很多租房都是一家子丈夫工作， 老婆在家带好几个娃。 要不是有房补， 租房就更费劲， 关键工资不涨， 你房租贵可以、 没人租呀。
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John Key 的问题是，虽然奥克兰房价这两年升温真和他领导的国家党没丝毫关系，但他对此的态度是视而不见或低调处理。John Key, Investor Association 的代表和其他很多人对CGT都存在一个原则性的错误理解，他们不理解（或不愿意去理解）这么一个简单的Fact: 针对所有 Propeety Investors 的房产投资行为的CGT资本利得税根本就不是用来仰止房价的，它最根本的目的是从房产投资获利（包括短期和长期）者（较高收入者）的利润中强制克扣一部分作为对社会（低收入者）的补偿，同时也是对防止全社会因房产投资过热导致经济发展不均衡而造成社会发展负担而预先扣下的对社会的补偿，起到引导资金走向实业的作用。这样去理解就可以很好的justify这个CGT了，而不是整体在这里讨论一些没用，空洞，不涉及核心的话题，什么不能仰止房价拉，什么对investor 税务处理不公拉，etc etc。而且在实行时完全可以be creative一点，在奥克兰地区设CGT，而其它房价低迷人口增长不见起色的地区可以适量按一定比率减免一部分CGT（当然会计做账时会因此更复杂了）。所有说，CGT应该实行，为投资房产行为曾压，为全社会均衡发展减压，这才是长治久安之大计。
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Rents Catch up 会来的，但这一过程很漫长，在奥克兰，return 的回升未来只有两种途径：要么来慢的，rents slowly catch up over time，要么来快的，asset bubble burst。你希望是那种途径完全取决于你目前的房产总额，你懂的。
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还是慢慢catch up吧
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从过往的历史来看，新西兰从来没有发生过房产崩盘（我是定义是某地的平均房价比之前任何时间点跌30%）的事情。虽然不能说以前没发生，以后就不会发生，但毕竟是小概率事件。
如同以前一样，租金会慢慢赶上的，房价不涨甚至微跌的时候，租金还是慢慢的涨的，随着收入和物价的上涨。