新西兰Property crash predicted -转自NZherald
在新西兰
等年底看看经济学家到底预测的准不准
Property prices in New Zealand will fall between 30 to 50 per cent in the next few years.
First-home buyers will benefit from a catastrophic collapse in New Zealand's property market that could see house prices fall by more than 30 per cent in the next few years, an American economist and demographer predicts.
Harry Dent has predicted some of the worst market crashes in recent history, including the decade-long economic slowdown in Japan in the 1990s and the 2008 global financial crisis.
Now, he is predicting property prices in New Zealand will fall between 30 to 50 per cent in the next few years.
Speaking from Australia - where he is promoting his latest book, The Demographic Cliff, and talking at seminars - Dent said New Zealand was in a property bubble that was ready to burst.
He said the bubble was being propped up by baby boomers, immigration and foreign buyers, especially from China.
"China is holding up real estate, especially in Australia and New Zealand, and one of the reasons is the rich Chinese are getting out of the country."
However, China's housing market was also in an "unbelievable" bubble. While house prices in Auckland were about nine times annual income, they were about 30 times income in China.
When the Chinese real estate bubble bursts - like Japan's did in the late 1980s - it would trigger a similar collapse here. That could happen within the next few years.
Mr Dent - whose predictions draw on demographic data and long-term trends - said people wrongly believed property prices could not go down in value because there was strong demand.
"But what people don't understand is the reason you get a bubble in the first place is because there's strong demand versus limited supply, and that's what you have in Australia and New Zealand," he said.
"I think you're going to see at least a 30 per cent correction, and you could see as much as 50 per cent - a lot of that depends on how bad China goes."
When the New Zealand bubble bursts, it would be a good time to buy property here - especially for younger first-time home buyers.
"Young people should be praying for this, because they don't have a shot," Mr Dent said.
"High real estate prices are only good for the people sitting in real estate that bought it a long time ago. It's horrible for young families, it makes your business uncompetitive because they have got to pay higher wages ... it's a huge tax.
"Young people really don't have a chance. We really do need a reset."
Mr Dent said New Zealand, like other countries, would also have to raise the retirement age to be able to afford the rising cost of entitlements.
"If we adjusted all of our entitlements, healthcare and retirement benefits for rising life expectancy ... we'd be retiring at 75, not 65," he said.
"We have a big reset coming on that around the world. I think the world is going to have to go into a crisis to realise that real estate can't go up forever, that we can't afford the entitlements."
Mr Dent predicts the next global financial crisis will see the unwinding of commodity prices. That would be bad news for New Zealand's export-led economy, he said.
The crisis - which Mr Dent predicts could start as early as this year - would be a major depression rather than a recession, he said.
评论
我的钱都准备好了，就等这一天了！可是看政府数据，印了那么多钱，难道钱不贬值房子先贬值？！2003年以后也是大批号称曾经预测过啥灾的经济学家的人出来大谈泡沫崩盘，他们坚持了5年终于预言成功了！5年啊，这是一种什么信念？！哈哈。怎么感觉现在历史又开始重演了呢？
评论
woohoo。。。崩盘！崩盘！崩盘！！！
评论
那Harry Dent不大靠谱。
评论
Could see house prices fall by more than 30 per cent in the next few years
也可以解释为5年吗
评论
Look this guy's track record of forecasts. You can see how wrong he has been.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Dent.
评论
同意
评论
难不成是高级黑？
评论
我天，这家伙也太烂了吧，12年就唱衰，一直唱了两年直到今天。12和13的暴涨感情他一直不屈不挠啊。他继续坚持早晚成功哈哈。
评论
确实衰 哈哈
评论
我也这么认为，bubble 也许是有的，但是这个经济学家把中国说为造成新西兰泡沫的主要原因是荒谬的。
我觉得恐慌性抛售或者极其高利息无法负担借贷才可能造成房市疲软。如果是利息造成的跌价，我觉得first home buyer就更买不起了。
而且，我周边很多人或客户，手上都是持有大量房源做中长线投资的，根本不会因为中国国内状况或者一般的利息升幅而做恐慌性抛售。
高利息只能把一些打肿脸充胖子的投资客踢出市场，但对first home buyers 没有多少便宜可占的。
评论
富人更富，穷人更穷，不能一旦发现穷人不能翻身的时候就要世界大乱来改变现实呀，不知道他在说什么
评论
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gga183im4RU
he is in Australia promoting his book. that was what he said in 2013 in CNBC.
评论
07年还有所为的经济学家预测NZ地产要跌70%,说这些话的人都是买不起房子的QB
评论
07年房价跌了多少？不到10%吧。
这里的LVR一般都是80以下，不象美国那样的零首付，会出现房价稍微一跌就丢房走人的情况。
评论
恩他就是一个卖书的，不是经济学家。
评论
while 2008 GFC didn't pull down house prices up to 40%, but some of the events were notable:
1) fisher and pykers ( nz pride) fell into haier 's hands at very cheap price.
2) some of the stocks -eg fletcher buildings, nuplex dropped 50% of its share price in 2008- 2009
3) Few houses, however I noticed once sold for $900k was sold for $700k ( within a year from the peak in north shore) due to interest hiking. There were some fell into that categories easily. Some places I won't name in centre Auckland was able to get 30% discount from 2007's price.
If USA didn't print money and interest continued to be high, a lot of mortgagee sales could have happened in nz. It was for a short period of time before the world got the right directions from Fed (USA), market was later calmed by cheaper interest rates, and a lot of people re-shuffled their loans and prevent the eventuality.
A lot of people only remember the time when interest was at 4% - 5% , ..... well, never say never, matter of time?
评论
有风险意识永远是必要的， 不过未来几年不用太担心。因为：
1. 虽然人们是健忘的， 但不至于把2008年金融风暴这么快就忘记。 即便投资者很激进， 银行现在也很谨慎，现在贷款要比2006，2007年时难很多。
2. 世界经济在经历了金融风暴之后， 正进入由衰退到全面复苏时期， 还远没有到泡沫膨胀期。需要再过几年才会经济见顶，所以还是有几年好日子过的。
评论
感覺是每天都有一堆人説會升很多，然後每天都有人在説跌很多。。
评论
反正现在卖掉的确实很多了又。
评论
跌30-50%?!
评论
很多人説會升，很多人説會跌
评论
2005年， 专家谢国忠说中国房市大跌， 结果， 政府一印钱，当时没买房的， 现在眼睛都要哭瞎了。
评论
哈哈, 老谢2000年后无一句说对, 已成业界共识. 他终归是魔根的人, 瞎忽悠人的.