在新西兰
先不说，直接上文章：
Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler explains his reasoning for introducing 'speed limits' on high loan-to-value lendingPosted in Property October 3, 2013 - 08:32am, Graeme Wheeler
Graeme Wheeler, Governor of the RBNZBy Graeme Wheeler
Many New Zealanders consider purchasing a house to be a rock solid investment, and assume that house prices will continue to rise steadily, having never seen a bear market or experienced rapid rises in mortgage rates.
Over the past 25 years, however, many wealthy countries have experienced periods of substantial decline in house prices.
Falling house prices erode homeowners’ equity, while mortgage lenders experience losses on their loan portfolios.
The resulting stress in the financial system can have long lasting adverse effects on the economy.
For borrowers, it can mean years of spending cut-backs to rebuild savings.
The greatest impact is on borrowers, often first-home buyers, who recently entered the market with the least equity. In the United States, real net household wealth for the median household fell 39 percent from 2007 to 2010, and a quarter of America’s mortgage holders owed more on their houses than what their houses were worth.
Our concern is that excessive increases in house prices in parts of the country, if unchecked, pose increasing risk for the financial system and the broader economy.
High and rising house prices increase the risk and potential impact of a major correction in house prices, and consequential loss to lenders.
In a severe downturn, such losses would be expected to significantly reduce banks’ willingness to lend. Similar views about the risks from our overvalued housing market are expressed by the IMF, OECD, and the major international credit rating agencies.
New Zealand’s house prices are expensive, based on international comparisons of house prices relative to rents and to levels of household income. And our household debt levels relative to disposable income – having doubled over the past two decades – are also very high.
Could New Zealand experience a sharp fall in house prices? While not anticipated, our economy is not immune to such risks. The world economy still faces major challenges and, if global growth slows markedly, or if China’s financial system experiences major difficulties, it would quickly feed into the New Zealand economy and housing market.
Prices rising rapidly
House prices are rising rapidly in Auckland and Christchurch for two reasons: housing shortages and easy credit. It is critical that issues around land availability, zoning restrictions and high building costs are resolved and that the housing targets in the Auckland Accord are achieved. It is also important that credit expansion is restrained to be more in line with housing supply. Restricting lending to borrowers with low deposits can help reduce the upward pressure on house prices, especially as banks have been competing aggressively for borrowers with low deposits – with this borrowing accounting for 30 percent of new mortgage lending.
Some suggest that loan-to-value restrictions should be applied regionally, especially around Auckland, or that we should exempt buyers of lower-priced houses. We considered both options. However, regional restrictions would be hard to administer and would shift housing pressures outside wherever the boundary is drawn. Exempting low-priced housing would be a recipe for rapid increases in the cost of such housing. Broad exemptions to other groups such as first home buyers would substantially undermine the effectiveness of the restrictions in reducing house price inflation.
Many countries with LVR limits
While new for New Zealand, such restrictions have been introduced in 25 countries, and are currently being deployed in Canada, Israel, Korea, Norway, Singapore, and Sweden. Most countries adopting such restrictions prohibit high loan-to-value lending. We have opted for a more flexible approach, which still allows banks to do some high loan-to-value lending. Nor should such moves be seen as permanent. Restrictions will be removed when there is a better balance in the housing market and less risk that their removal will reignite high house price inflation.
While the Reserve Bank’s mandate is to promote financial stability, there are clear implications here for housing affordability. Over the next two years interest rates are likely to rise in order to restrain an expected increase in broader inflation pressures. We currently expect that the official cash rate could increase by 2 percent from 2014 to the beginning of 2016. This could result in interest rates on first mortgages of 7-8 percent. If the loan-to-value speed limit is unable to slow house price inflation, larger increases in the official cash rate would be required.
Supply is still key
We are keen to see house price inflation moderate significantly and, in doing so, reduce the risks to the financial sector and the broader economy. Speed limits on low deposit lending are designed to help achieve this. Loan-to-value restrictions are expected to give the Reserve Bank more flexibility as to when and how quickly we have to raise interest rates, but the more fundamental solution to reducing pressure in the housing market lies in addressing the issues around housing supply.
我再贴一下NZ历史贷款利率图标
不知道电视媒体这个贷款利率明年就到8% 是怎么来的？
但是我们可以100%断定RBNZ不会，也不敢这样做。原因如下：
1。ORC提高到4.5%， 存款利息到7%。 美国和日本还没进入加息周期，现在贷款利率分别为1.25%和0.5% 。 直接导致CARRY TRADE，什么意思呢？ 就是投行和国际大型公司，在日本，美国贷款，把钱存入NZ的银行里，获取利息差；或者买NZ股票，NZ 股票分红一直很高，年息是6-8%；或者直接进入PROPERTY MARKET，平均年增长7-8%。
2。外汇市场大幅度动荡，NZD可以走出历史最牛的上扬行情，因为CARRY TRADE。
3。这种暴力的上涨贷款利息，无论是房屋贷款人，还是商业贷款人，都无法承受，直接伤害到实体经济。对房屋贷款来说，每周要多给银行利息，无法承受，导致HOUSEHOLD收入中其他支出大幅度下跌，对整个经济来看，大众是不敢消费，节衣缩食去还贷款，后果就是通货紧缩。这个大幅度调整利率的行为，和央行控制通货膨胀率在1-3%的目标相违背。你这是把通货膨胀直接打入通货紧缩，即CPI为 -2 - 0% 之间，会导致长时间经济衰退。
4。分配不公。只是AKL和CHCH二个城市的房价上涨，为什么要全民买单。还有很多小城市房价下跌的很厉害，年跌率10%以上，这是要毁灭它们吗？
5。海外资本和热钱大量流入，继续推高房价，人家根本不贷款，直接EQUITY交易走了。贷款的都是本地大众，最后买单的是全体NEW ZEALANDERS。
评论
他的本意是利率会涨，但是是通过2-3年上涨2-3个点，到8%的水平。 我们的媒体水平太高了，说明年直接8%。
评论
主流媒体很多炒作的，Market Watcher的比较值得关注
评论
本来16年到8%，不是所有银行和投资者期待中的事吗，媒体这个叫打破你心理预期，直接用流言干涉市场。
评论
2016年真到8%也不奇怪啊，因为Boom总要结束的，2016年也差不多那个时候了，然后利息提高就是房市下降的开始。
评论
利用媒体这招狠毒，打破投资者的EXPECTATION，玩金融心理学。其实我也是期待16年到8%甚至更高的。
评论
他们观测新政的数据要11月中旬才出来，所以现在对FIRST HOME BUYER反而是个好机会
评论
媒体这种小计量只是去骗贫民百姓的啦
评论
回顾一下，第三季度的经济数据马上要出来了。继续跟踪
评论
論壇有版友朋友因為這"不確定性的8%"賣房子了
受驚嚇的板凳
http://China2au/forum.php ... &extra=page%3D1