新西兰对于最近 interest.co.nz 一篇文章,影响到房子equ


在新西兰


先声明一下,此贴纯属学术探讨,一切属于个人观点,与银行政策及立场无关,更加不构成投资意见。 欢迎大家积极讨论。

首先,是RBNZ 最近发出来的consultation letter. 感谢网友 Lease 连接如下:
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/regulation_and_supervision/banks/policy/5463896.pdf

(大家也可以从interest.co.nz的文章里面直接进入。)

然后, interest.co.nz 的资深记者 Garath Vaughan 发表了一篇文章,原文连接如下:

http://www.interest.co.nz/property/66477/reserve-bank-wants-big-4-banks-include-personal-loans-and-credit-card-debts-lvr-calcu

再然后, 其中一段,让一些网友震精了。。节选如下:

And the Reserve Bank says it also wants to ensure valuation policy isn't affected by "current market conditions" by making sure banks' valuations on residential properties they loan against stick to the valuation at the time a residential mortgage loan is originated.“

震精贴连接: http://China2au/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2440470&extra=page%3D1&page=1

再再然后,楼主就耐不住寂寞,和同事讨论,再自己花了两三小时读 consultation 里面的第 26 条。。把总结放在了自己的QQ日志,忍不住要拿出来和大家分享。。欢迎大家各抒己见。。

=======================================================================
乍一看,还真以为储备银行规定银行以后只能按照买卖房子时候的价钱来做贷款,也就是说扼杀了房子增值的那部分,从而把很多用equity来投资的投资者秒杀。因为,根据上面所说,举个例子,譬如十年前,David 花了 20万买房,十年后的今天,David的房子,还是只值 20万。

其实不然,经过我不断的研究阅读,和同行的讨论再加上一些思考,对Garath 发表的这段话的局限性,很是失望。首先,这次的consultation letter,还是在征集各大银行代表的意见中,远元未到实施阶段。其次,请允许我用微薄的知识和大家分析一下。当然,以下所述只是学术讨论,不代表银行任何意见和观点,也不能构成投资意见。

首先,我们看看储备银行这次对于 “property value" 一词的解释想作些什么更新。 (这里只谈cnsultation letter的第 26 条)

下面是现时储备银行对于 "property value"  的定义:

Propertyvalue is the value of the residential property determined under abank’s

residentialproperty valuation policy when a residential mortgage loan isoriginated”.

(Section37)

a policy governing how a property value is determined for a residentialmortgage loan

that- (i) is approved by a bank’s board of directors; and (ii) includesguidance on the

useof –(A) a valuation produced by an independent valuer: and (B) thepurchase price

of aresidential property;” (Section 43 (f))

independentvaluer means a person who is not associated with a person who has an

interestin the residential property for which a valuation is made and who is:(i) a

registeredvaluer as defined in the Valuers Act 1948; or (ii) another personapproved to

providevaluation services by rules made under the Rating Valuations Act1998:”


接下来,是储备银行对于 "property value" 处于征询意见中的新定义:

Property value is the value of the residential property determined under abank’s

residentialproperty valuation policy when a residential mortgage loan isoriginated”.

A property valuation policy means

a policy governing how a property value is determined for a residentialmortgage loan that - (i) is approved by a bank’s board ofdirectors; (ii) includes the requirement that only propertyvaluations by independent valuers are used for the purpose ofcalculating the loan-to-value ratio; (iii) includes guidanceon the use of the purchase price of a residential property;and (iv) ensures thatits application is invariant to the direction of the movement ofresidential property prices,i.e. it is applied symmetrically irrespective of whether residential property pricesare increasing or decreasing.

independentvaluer means a person who is not associated with a person who has an

interestin the residential property for which a valuation is made and who is:(i) a

registeredvaluer as defined in the Valuers Act 1948; or (ii) another personapproved

toprovide valuation services by rules made under the Rating ValuationsAct 1998:”


大家留意发光的字体,这些是这次 其中,关键词是 symmetrically 和 independent valuers。 可以看出,新旧定义里头,储备银行把,买卖价钱 "purhase price" 这个字眼剔除了。而且,更着重的,是独立估价师的估价,和想得到一个更合理,更稳定,而不是一个虚高的房价。

可以预见, 如果新的定义真被推广的话,以后在很多场合里,都要用上独立估价师的估价。其中包括最常见的,买卖房子 (无论私售或中介),更换银行 (refinance), 增加贷款(top up),及用equity去抵押再买房。 而且,为了得出更折中的价格,不排会要求大家做两份或者以上的估价而取平均或中间价的可能。

至于Garath文中所提到大家担心不能refinance或top up 的可能性,个人认为,基本为 0。


评论
好乱啊,就像unitary plan那样,通过了再说吧

现在估计各种中介又能趁机捞一笔了。。。嘿嘿

评论
没有看原文

这个解释听起来比较合理

评论

...................................................................

评论
我花2000刀律师费,把房子倒一手再去贷,能行吗???

评论

...............................................................

评论

hmm..... independent valuer can be conservative ( to play safe), they based on past value.  At the moment, they seem to value $100k to 150k above CV for some full site property.  Where most hses in north shore already sold well above that.

eg, an old hse in exmouth rd northcote, they valued at 750k,  and sold for 1.11 mil in open auction.

Valuer vs investor.  Valuer looks at past.  Investors looks at future????????????

新西兰房产

震惊!原来倒灌党全都偷偷买房了!

新西兰某倒灌党大V竟然亲口承认自己已经有房了!宣传裸斩就是为了自己下一套投资房抄底!最可悲的是本打算买自住房却没主见被人当枪使最后还说声谢谢啊。 评论 刚需一直都存在,无非 ...

新西兰房产

银行也纠错?改变短期房价预测

新西兰BNZ drastically lowers house price forecast, says market had 'false start' 这个时候突然意识到了问题所在?之前不是四大行天天喊今年增长2-5% 吗? 才一个月不到就出来承认错误了? 评论 The predictio ...

新西兰房产

求指教:关于房贷利率重新锁定

新西兰谢谢了先~~ 房贷一直放在ANZ六七年了。下个月需要重新锁定房贷,请问明白人,是到期之前自己选择一个ANZ的一年期(目前好像7.14)?还是找贷款中介选一个ANZ的? 或者,请贷款中介帮 ...

新西兰房产

利率不变,准备加息

新西兰https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127861/reserve-bank-has-left-official-cash-rate-unchanged-55-noting-domestic-inflation-slow 奄奄一息,仍要加息 评论 希望真的能加息,早死早超生。 评论 刁民!妖言惑众,煽乱房 ...

新西兰房产

811个月定存涨到了6.4%

新西兰另外MILFORD ASSETS MANAGEMENT还有一款旗舰产品,不是KIWISAVER, 不是KIWISAVER, 不是KIWISAVER。 是INVESTMENT FUND, 连续十年稳定增长。 10年收益164.02%, 年化收益率是14.02%。如果家里有老人的,你懂 ...

新西兰房产

都说房价房市爹爹爹

新西兰但我看基督城房市很好呀 很多再盖 wigram mall旁边已经开工 几十套貌似卖掉了大部分 评论 基督城房价低,付了20%首付以后,贷款也就50-70万,基本没有压力。奥克兰这几年买house的,随便 ...

新西兰房产

请教关于City的公寓

新西兰孩子要去city上学,想买个小的apartment,但是听说很多apartment都有问题啊,漏水什么的,还有产权都是租赁的, 有没有过来人分享一些信息呢,能不能买,哪个楼盘省心一些,或者还是租 ...

新西兰房产

mlgb的联储和央行

新西兰文中说的服务性通胀就是我们所说的NON TRADEABLE INFLATION 所有国家都这个样子,主要是中央政府和地方政府效率低下,导致地方债务常年堆积,必须涨RATES来增加营收,不然地方政府怕破产 ...

新西兰房产

不谈房,就说说不跟风美国的日本

新西兰这些东西太高大上,草民的我看不懂 评论 砖家说了 崩盘又要开始了,坐稳了 定存什么的,锁在最高点,或者找剑客买基金。 妥妥活镰刀,等危机过去,全球都是优质资产。 哈哈哈哈 ...

新西兰房产

怎么知道附近房子卖出了多少钱?

新西兰怎么知道附近房子卖出了多少钱?怎么估算自己的房子在当前能卖多少钱?有什么网站可看吗? 评论 realestate.co.nz。找个中介最直接,因为房子之间差异很大,一般人不明白,你自己估 ...

新西兰房产

重磅!重磅!重磅!DTI来了

新西兰https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/127974/reserve-bank-says-banks-will-have-comply-new-dti-rules-july-1-while-loan new DTI the banks will have to adhere to: 20% of new owner-occupier lending to borrowers with a DTI ratio over 6; and ...