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From QV.co.nz
A lot has been said of the government and Reserve Bank looking to temper the heated property market with LVR caps and other such measures. Although property values have been growing in Auckland at a stronger rate over the past few years, and many buyers have been struggling with the current market conditions, this may be in no way unusual.
So, how inflated is the market really? We can judge this by looking at and comparing how the market has fared over previous property cycles. The graph below shows the year on year change in property values for every quarter since December 1990. When the line is above zero values are increasing compared to the year before, and when the line is below zero then values are dropping, allowing us to see the peaks and troughs of previous cycles.
Property values increased strongly during the period 1994 and 1996, then dropped slightly during 1998 and 2000. There was another growth period in the years 2002 to 2007, followed by decreasing values in 2008. Values are currently increasing, as they have been since mid 2011.
The graph also shows all of the Auckland area, as well as the old Auckland City as it was prior to supercity amalgamation. In the mid 1990's values in Auckland increased 25% year on year in 1994 and 1996. Old Auckland City increased even faster in 1994, a staggering 30% year on year compared to the more modest 14% for all New Zeaaland.
During 2003 values in Auckland again increased at 25% or more, but then during the period 2004 to 2007 it increased slower than the rest of New Zeaalnd.
As it stood as at March 2013, the annual increase in values for Auckland area and old Auckland City was around 13%, with New Zealand sitting even further behind at less than 10%. This reflects that values in Auckland have been increasing strongly for the past couple of years, as they have in Canterbury, while the rest of New Zealand has been substantially subdued.
The current rate of increase in Auckland, at around 13%, is well below the previous two property cycles. This suggests that if we are in the middle of another cycle of growth, and if this cycle reflects the previous two cycles, then we could expect values to increase nearly twice as fast as they currently are in the coming years.
The current increase in Auckland values can be attributed to a number of factors, including a shortage of properties, a lack of listings, increased demand due to migration and natural population growth, mortgage interest rates at historically low levels, Kiwisaver incentives for first home buyers, property investors active again on the promise of capital gains, and an overall increase in consumer confidence. There is little quantitive evidence to measure the relative effects of each of these factors, but they are all likely to be contributing to the growing market.
Of course the current economic climate is not the same as it was in previous cycles, so we can't just assume that because values increased by 25% to 30% in previous cycles that it is reasonable to expect them to do the same now. However we should be clear that the current rate of property value increase is by no means exceptional or unusual.
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